Cowboys-Rams betting trends and player props
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The Sunday Night Football schedule opens with an intriguing matchup at the brand-new SoFi Stadium, where the Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 52) are looking to crash the Los Angeles Rams' home opener in the first game of the Mike McCarthy era.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.
Betting trends
The Rams are a trendy moneyline pick here as short home underdogs, but recent history suggests it's a trap. Los Angeles is 0-4-1 against the spread and 0-5 straight up in its last five games as a home underdog, including 0-3 behind Jared Goff, who's lost by at least 28 points in all three of those contests.
That includes last year's 39-point loss to the Baltimore Ravens in prime time, which has also been a problematic spot for the Rams. Los Angeles is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS under the lights with Sean McVay, while the Cowboys are 10-6-2 ATS in their last 18 prime-time spots. They're also 14-8-1 ATS as road chalk since 2014, while McCarthy is 6-1 ATS against the Rams in his coaching career.
The under has been a golden bet for these two teams in this spot. Dallas is 9-2 to the under in its last 11 Sunday night games, while Los Angeles is 7-0-1 to the under on SNF since 2005. The Rams are also 8-2-1 to the under in the McVay era when the total is this high.
Player props
Dak Prescott under 287.5 passing yards (-106)
Prescott finished second in passing yards in 2019, so it's admittedly a hard sell to fade his yardage mark in Week 1. But this number is simply too high. The Cowboys quarterback fell below this mark nine times in 16 games last year, including when he threw for a season-low 212 yards against the Rams in Week 15.
Los Angeles' secondary projects to be one of the NFL's best this year, so the Cowboys would be better suited to attack the Rams on the ground behind their stout offensive line. Despite all the weapons at his disposal, don't expect a 300-yard game from Prescott.
Van Jefferson to score a touchdown (+550)
Jefferson was one of the most underrated receivers in the loaded 2020 class, and he's put on a clinic in the Rams' camp with his savvy route-running and refined knowledge of different positions within the team's offense.
He'll likely line up as the No. 3 wideout for Los Angeles, which is a profitable spot in McVay's offense. At these odds, it's a no-brainer to take a shot on the former Florida product to score in his NFL debut.
Best bet
Under 52
Sunday Night Football has been a boon for under bettors whenever these two teams are involved, but this number is also just too high given these clubs' defensive talent and offensive philosophies.
The Cowboys should establish the ground game as they did in their blowout win versus the Rams a year ago, while L.A. has invested too much draft capital in the run game to abandon it in Week 1. Dallas is a solid bet against the number, too, but the safest play is the under.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.