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Thanks to some reshuffling of the NFL schedule, we have a pair of intriguing matchups on Monday night. The Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 57) get the Buffalo Bills on a short week, and the Arizona Cardinals (-1, 55) are slim favorites over the reeling Dallas Cowboys.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.
Few teams have gotten their doors blown off this year quite as the Bills did on Tuesday when they looked lost in a 42-16 defeat to the Tennessee Titans. That's not a great sign for this week, as teams that lose by at least 26 points are 3-6 against the spread in their last nine and 15-26-1 ATS dating back to 2018.
Conversely, this is a strong spot for the Chiefs, who are 4-1 ATS after their last five losses with an average scoring margin of plus-11.8 points in those games. They also have a unique advantage coming off a long week and the Bills off a short one. Teams in that spot - excluding ones coming off bye weeks - are 14-5-2 ATS dating back to 2015.
The trends in the nightcap are much less clear. The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games, but they're 9-17 ATS in their last 26 as favorites. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 as underdogs, though coach Mike McCarthy is 5-13 ATS in his last 18 games when catching points.
High totals have meant easy overs for years, and both games are trending over here. Since 2016, totals of at least 55 are 19-11-2 to the over, and totals of at least 57.5 are 9-3 to the over in that span and 16-6-1 since 2000.
Josh Allen over 288.5 passing yards (-110)
This may seem like an appropriate number for Allen, who threw for exactly 288 yards two weeks ago and was held to 263 in Tuesday night's disaster. Consider, though, the Bills signal-caller was averaging 346 passing yards in his three games prior and has a juicy matchup against a vulnerable Kansas City secondary.
Last week, Derek Carr gashed the Chiefs' defense for 347 passing yards, including 234 over the middle of the field. That's where Allen has thrived since the beginning of 2019. Bet on a bounce-back effort in a solid matchup for the third-year quarterback.
Michael Gallup over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
Gallup is emerging as a star before our eyes. The Cowboys receiver is averaging just short of 70 receiving yards through five games with at least 50 in four of them, including a 73-yard effort last week against the New York Giants' quietly solid secondary.
Now Gallup goes up against a Cardinals pass defense that sits in the bottom seven in DVOA and PFF rankings and has allowed multiple players to record at least 42 receiving yards in four of its five games this year. Expect Gallup to get his share on Monday.
Chiefs-Bills over 57.5
This number is just shy of the highest total this season, which came only one week ago when the Chiefs and Oakland Raiders blew a 58-point total out of the water with a combined 72. Totals this high have historically been rewarded with shootouts, and both of these offenses are well-equipped to exploit the weaknesses on the other side.
The Cowboys were a disappointment this year even before losing Dak Prescott, while the Cardinals have been a surprising (and exciting) 3-2 team through five weeks. So why are sharps hammering Dallas?
Dallas has played a murderer's row compared to Arizona, which has faced one team with a winning record and doesn't have enough talent to justify being a road favorite in this spot. Trust the wiseguys with a clear value play here.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.