MNF betting preview: Burrow set for another explosive outing vs. Cowboys
When the schedule was released, the Week 14 Monday night matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys would've been notable. But after two disappointing campaigns, there's little at stake aside from the winner mathematically keeping their playoff chances alive, though both team's seasons are, realistically, nearing their end.
Insights
| Spread splits | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 67.3% | 60.5% |
| Cowboys | 32.7% | 39.5% |
Bettors at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet are siding with the Bengals on the road. It's worth noting this line opened with the Bengals as six-point favorites and has shifted in the Cowboys' favor, which could be because Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown was ruled out for the Bengals.
Key trends
- The Bengals are 6-6 against the spread (ATS) despite their 4-8 record. They are 5-1 ATS on the road.
- The Cowboys are 4-8 ATS, the fifth-worst mark in the league. They're also 1-5 ATS at home.
- The over has hit in nine of 12 Bengals games - including five straight - and eight of 12 Cowboys contests. This game's 49.5 total is the week's third-highest.
Best bet - Bengals -4.5
Cincinnati's offense is the best unit of the four that'll take the field, and it's not close. Joe Burrow and Co. have scored at least 34 points in four straight games and are averaging 27.9 this season (fifth-most in the league). Both teams' defenses, meanwhile, give up a ton of points, which is why this game's total is so high.
Yes, Brown's absence on the offensive line is a big loss for the Bengals, especially against a Cowboys front seven that generates the most pressure in the league. However, we'll bank on Burrow being able to make the necessary adjustments to outscore whatever Cooper Rush can muster up.
Players to watch
Joe Burrow - Over 36.5 passing attempts (-120) and 2.5 passing touchdowns (+190)
We'll back Burrow's production in two ways: targeting his passing attempts in one wager and his passing touchdowns in another.
Burrow has attempted 37 or more passes in five straight contests as the Bengals' offense fires on all cylinders. There's no reason that production should slow down in a game with shootout potential.
He's also passed for three or more touchdowns in four consecutive games. At nearly +200, it's a worthwhile bet he'll do the same against a Cowboys defense allowing 28.3 points per outing.
Tee Higgins - Over 69.5 receiving yards + over 5.5 receptions (+105)
Under the expectation Burrow will put up numbers, it's reasonable to assume that one of his two elite pass-catchers will benefit from the offense. When healthy, Tee Higgins' outputs are similar to those of Ja'Marr Chase, yet Higgins' totals are much lower in the betting market. Higgins is averaging 6.14 receptions and 79.7 yards per contest in his seven appearances this season, while Chase is averaging six catches and 97.7 yards in the same seven-game span. We'll take the discount on Higgins in this case.
Jake Ferguson - Over 39.5 receiving yards + over 3.5 receptions (+100)
Rush has been deliberate in getting his tight ends involved in his five outings since taking over for Dak Prescott. Dallas' starting tight ends are averaging five catches and 47.8 yards with Rush under center, including a tilt against the Eagles in which he threw for only 45 yards.
Jake Ferguson is returning from a two-game absence and should be heavily involved in the Cowboys' passing attack as they look to keep pace with the Bengals. He's averaging 5.25 grabs and 44.75 receiving yards in the eight contests he's played in without leaving early due to injury.