Key takeaways and analysis from Week 17 in the NFL

Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day's action and examines their significance moving forward.

One hit after another

Some fan bases can't catch a break.

It looked like Giants supporters finally might get one, as the No. 1 pick was theirs to lose, and projected top quarterback Shedeur Sanders had seemingly signaled an interest in Big Blue with his choice of cleats ahead of Colorado's bowl game Saturday. One day later, everything is bad again.

A stunning win over the Colts this week drops New York to No. 4 in the projected draft order. That's not necessarily out of the range to get Sanders or perhaps another coveted passer, but the idea the Giants could suddenly have to trade up to get one should be nauseating. Spending multiple first-rounders on a quarterback in this year's class might be a non-starter.

All New York had to do to secure its choice of any player in the draft was keep playing the way it had for, well, the entire season. Instead, the Giants prevailed in a shootout courtesy of one of the most random quarterback performances you'll ever see.

Drew Lock entered this week having posted minus-0.32 EPA/dropback, according to TruMedia's model. That ranked 43rd out of 43 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season. But Lock flipped the script against the Colts, completing 17 of 23 passes for 309 yards, throwing for four touchdowns, and adding another on the ground. His 1.18 EPA/dropback against Indy represents the top mark from a quarterback this season and the seventh-best single-game performance since 2000.

Making matters worse, Giants fans also had to witness departed star running back Saquon Barkley top the 2,000-yard mark with the division-rival Eagles. He's one of only nine players in NFL history to reach that milestone, and he can break Eric Dickerson's single-season record with another 101 yards next week. His opponent for the shot at history: The Giants.

The real dagger would be watching Barkley begin the game by tearing it up and breaking the record before having the Eagles pull their starters and clearing the way for another unwanted victory. New York could drop as far as No. 9 with a win in Week 18.

No matter how the draft order shakes out, ownership has a major decision to make at the conclusion of the regular season. Giants fans will be hoping for a move to clean house. There's no way a late win or two would sway the decision, right?

... Right?

Who would've thought?

Sam Darnold's looming free agency will make for a fascinating offseason storyline.

The former first-round bust has been a revelation for the surprise juggernaut Vikings, leading the way to a 14-2 record that puts the club in position to play for the No. 1 seed next week against the Lions. Darnold was outstanding in Sunday's win over the Packers, connecting on one big throw after another for a season-high 377 yards and three touchdowns.

Many will label Darnold as a product of a quarterback-friendly environment, and that's certainly part of the equation. But it's also true the talent that once made him worthy of the No. 3 pick is finally starting to shine through. Minnesota may have signed Darnold as the bridge to J.J. McCarthy, but he's taken his opportunity and run with it. This is his team now.

It's already getting tough to imagine the Vikings letting Darnold hit the free-agent market. The real question is how they'd go about keeping him.

The absolute minimum for a long-term deal would probably look something like Baker Mayfield's three-year, $100-million contract in Tampa Bay. More realistically, Darnold likely has the leverage to push for something closer to the four-year, $180-million deal Kirk Cousins landed in Atlanta.

If that seems too much of a commitment with McCarthy waiting in the wings, the Vikings could opt for the franchise tag. But a one-year, fully guaranteed salary in the range of $40 million - a figure that can't be spread out over multiple years - limits your cap flexibility. Either option may seem less than ideal compared to the rookie QB contract already on the roster, but can Minnesota afford to mess with success?

It'll be a delicate situation to navigate either way, but it's a good problem to have. The Vikings won't have any complaints if Darnold's play continues to force their hand.

Quick slants

History within reach

Saquon Barkley is now 101 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. He has a great chance to make history in a Week 18 matchup versus the Giants, who've allowed 138.7 rush yards per game. The question is whether Philly should be willing to let Barkley and other offensive starters play in a meaningless matchup. The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed heading into the regular-season finale. Surely, Philadelphia wants Barkley to get it done, and doing so against the division rival that let him go would be extra sweet. But a team setting its sights on a Super Bowl probably can't justify playing key players for four quarters for no other reason than to chase individual records. The Eagles can perhaps open with their starters and give Barkley a chance to rip off a few big runs early before shutting it down. It may not take him long in this matchup.

Bucs one win away

The Falcons falling to the Commanders on Sunday night puts the Buccaneers back in control of the NFC South. Taking care of business against the beat-up Saints next week is all Tampa Bay needs to secure a fourth straight division title. A disappointing loss to Dallas had briefly opened the door for Atlanta, and Michael Penix Jr. replacing Kirk Cousins created some momentum for the Falcons. But the Bucs were probably always the team most capable of making noise in the postseason. As we saw again this week, the Baker Mayfield-led offense can light up the scoreboard with the best of them. Sunday's win over the Panthers was Tampa Bay's third 40-point game of the season and the eighth time the club has topped the 30-point mark. That kind of firepower would make the Bucs a sneaky tough matchup against anyone they face in the first round.

Broncos get a gift

Two straight losses have put the Broncos in a position where they're still fighting for the last AFC wild-card spot in Week 18. However, there probably won't be much standing in their way thanks to a division rival. The Chiefs, already having locked up the No. 1 seed, are reportedly planning to sit key players for the regular-season finale in Denver. We've seen stranger things happen in this league, but it's tough to imagine the Broncos failing to capitalize on their win-and-in scenario against a second-string Kansas City squad. That's a devastating development for the Bengals and Dolphins, who need wins and a Broncos loss to have a chance.

What do the Chargers do?

The Chargers are facing a fascinating Week 18 decision. Saturday's win over the Patriots secured a wild-card spot for Los Angeles, but seeding is yet to be determined. A win over the Raiders combined with a Steelers loss against the Bengals would see the Chargers jump from the No. 6 seed to the No. 5 seed. That may seem like a minor difference, and one typically not worth risking injuries to top players. But this year might be different. As things stand, the No. 5 seed would get the Texans on Wild Card Weekend. The No. 6 seed would get the powerhouse Ravens, who cruised to a 31-2 victory in Houston on Christmas Day. The Chargers should do whatever they can to avoid Baltimore in the first round, even if a small part of Jim Harbaugh is intrigued by the idea of taking down his brother.

An all-time debut

Jayden Daniels will run away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, but Brock Bowers would be the clear choice if it weren't for position value. The Raiders' first-round pick has put together the best season we've ever seen from a rookie tight end. The Georgia product posted another strong performance in Sunday's win over the Saints, breaking Puka Nacua's rookie record for receptions, Mike Ditka's rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end, and Darren Waller's team record for receptions in a season. Bowers' 108 catches rank second behind only Ja'Marr Chase among 2024 league leaders, and his 1,140 receiving yards have him sitting in the top six. It's not too often we see a rookie immediately establish himself as one of the best at his position.

Yes, Mike Ditka

Let's all take a second to appreciate the fact that Ditka was the previous record holder for receiving yards by a rookie tight end. Not only have countless all-time greats rolled through the league since 1961, but we're also talking about a completely different sport. The 1961 campaign was only the second season in NFL history in which the leading passer finished with over 3,000 yards. That's not quite how the game has been played for the past 30 years. The NFL hasn't had a leading passer finish with less than 4,500 yards since 2006, and the last sub-4,000-yard leader came in 1997. Yet Ditka needed only 56 receptions (19.2 yards per catch!) in a 14-game season to set a record that stood for over six decades.

Stuck on 499?

Aaron Rodgers is one touchdown pass away from becoming the fifth quarterback in NFL history to reach the 500 mark. The milestone would be a nice way to tie a bow on a Hall of Fame career, but it's no longer inevitable. An embarrassing effort this week in Buffalo saw the Jets offense held off the scoreboard until Tyrod Taylor took over in garbage time late in the fourth quarter. Rodgers will have one more opportunity against the Dolphins in Week 18. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. While his recent form had seemingly opened the door for either a return to New York or perhaps a new landing spot next year, that's certainly no guarantee. Who knows whether a 41-year-old Rodgers would even want to play another season after the way this one has gone? Going out one shy of such a huge milestone would be a tough way to end an incredible career.

Zero shame

The NFL insisted late last year that it wouldn't dare schedule games on a Christmas Day falling Tuesday or Wednesday. It was a pretty funny claim at the time and one that nobody took seriously. Sure enough, the league found a way to get a pair of holiday games on the schedule this week by forcing a few teams to play three contests in 11 days. The football on Christmas Day was unsurprisingly bad. But the missteps didn't end there. The NFL also forced three games into the Saturday spot, leaving only eight for Sunday and just two for the late-afternoon window. Spreading out and spotlighting a few contests is cool, within reason. But is it worth it if the result is a watered-down product across the board, including on the day of the week you're supposed to dominate? Here's to wagering a guess that if there's money to be made, the league won't care one bit.

Stat of the week