TNF betting preview: Packers-Commanders meet in intriguing NFC clash
The Commanders head to Green Bay this week for a Thursday night date with the Packers. There's a lot at stake, as both teams are still trying to prove themselves as conference contenders who can challenge the Eagles for the NFC's top spot.
Handily beating the Lions in Week 1 helped strengthen the Packers' case. They jumped to second on the oddsboard at +360 to win the NFC on ESPN BET and theScore Bet. The Eagles remain the +325 favorites, while the Commanders are fifth at +1000. The outcome of Thursday night's matchup will shift the odds once again.
π Check out all of the Commanders-Packers markets on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
π Pick: Packers (-3.5)
Full transparency: I'm a Commanders fan (shoutout Clinton Portis), and I initially laid out why Washington will cover the 3.5-point spread. But the case for the Commanders isn't nearly as strong as it is for the Packers, especially on a short week with the game in Green Bay.
The Packers' defense may be the best in the league. Micah Parsons made an immediate impact, even on limited snaps, and should be more involved in Week 2 against a familiar foe. Green Bay made a Lions offense that led the league in scoring last season look abysmal and limited the Lions' dynamic one-two punch at running back - Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery - to 44 yards.
Jayden Daniels presents a much different test than Jared Goff, the former being one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league while the latter is a very traditional pocket passer. However, the Packers have speed on defense and should be well-equipped to handle whatever the Commanders throw at them. Washington struggled to protect Daniels in its win over the Giants and he got sacked three times. The Packers took down Goff four times in the backfield.
Although Washington's defense looked solid in Week 1, the Giants may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. The Commanders sacked Russell Wilson twice and clogged lanes in the run game, but they'll have a much tougher task against the Packers' offensive line, which gave up zero pressures on Jordan Love last week against Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions' defensive front.
This game has a total of 48.5, so a shootout is in the cards. That should ease your concerns about the Packers having to cover 3.5 points. If the score was expected to be lower, the hook (or half point) on the spread would become much more important in a game potentially decided by a field goal.
The Packers have a ton of early-season momentum, and they should maintain it with another convincing home victory over another strong NFC team.
π Bet: Over 9.5 rushing attempts
Daniels had 11 rushing attempts in Week 1 and rushed 10 or more times in each of the first three games to open last season. Perhaps that has something to do with early-season kinks in the offense that Daniels can cover by running.
The Packers should be able to generate pressure on Daniels, and if they can't contain him on the edges, he'll likely be able to scramble and take off to avoid getting sacked. This game may have playoff-level intensity, which could make Daniels more willing to run than to play it safe.
π Bet: Over 44.5 rushing yards
If you believe that Daniels will record 10 or more rushing attempts, he should also clear 44.5 rushing yards with ease. He's surpassed this total in 12 of 21 career starts, including Week 18 of last year when he only played the first half.
π Bet: Over 44.5 rushing + receiving yards
This number is too low for a player this heavily involved in the offense. Ekeler may not lead Washington in rushes, but he's often used in the passing game and could eclipse this number either exclusively on the ground or through the air.
Ekeler surpassed 44.5 rushing and receiving yards in 12 of his last 16 games, and he did so in five straight games to open last season.
π Bet: Over 59.5 receiving yards
The Packers spread the ball around so much that it's hard to target any of their offensive players in props unless you're comfortable betting unders. So I'll go ahead and pick another Commander.
Deebo Samuel out-targeted Terry McLaurin 10-4 in Week 1, likely a sign McLaurin is not 100% caught up after missing the majority of training camp. Don't expect their roles to change significantly between Sunday and Thursday; Samuel will be Daniels' top target for another week. The former 49er caught seven passes for 77 yards Sunday.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+175)
Washington wasted no time getting its new offensive weapon involved. Samuel played 77% of the Commanders' offensive snaps, recording a team-leading 10 targets, seven receptions, and 96 total yards. He also rushed for a touchdown. Samuel is clearly a big part of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's plans, and we expect him to get a heavy workload Thursday night.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+225)
"Bill" led all Washington running backs in carries in Week 1, totaling 82 yards and a touchdown. The rookie also flashed his explosiveness, taking a carry 42 yards in his impressive NFL debut. These are great odds for a rusher whose workload could potentially increase, so we'll ride with Croskey-Merritt to find the end zone again against the Packers.
π Bet: To score 2+ TDs (+260)
Because of how the Packers distribute their passing targets, it can be tough to get a read on their offense when it comes to touchdown scorers. However, Jacobs is Green Bay's clear No. 1 back. He had 19 carries and a score in Week 1, and he's coming off a season where he had 17 touchdowns in 18 total contests. Washington faced a lowly Giants team in the season opener and played well, but the Commanders' defense surrendered the fifth-most rushing scores to opposing running backs in 2024.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.