SNF betting preview: Which 2nd-year quarterback will shine in prime time?
The Vikings host the Falcons on Sunday Night Football, giving us a great look at two second-year quarterbacks on the big stage.
Michael Penix and J.J. McCarthy were selected eighth and 10th overall, respectively, in the 2024 draft, and both face immense pressure to prove themselves as franchise quarterbacks.
This is an unconventional Sunday night matchup, as it doesn't feature a true Super Bowl contender, a superstar signal-caller, or a big-market franchise. However, the young QBs and abundance of fantasy football-relevant players heighten the game's intrigue.
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π Pick: Vikings (-3.5)
The Vikings mustered an incredible fourth-quarter comeback against the Bears on Monday night, scoring 21 points in the final quarter to win by three. McCarthy performed as you would expect from a player making their first start in prime time. He struggled mightily to complete passes in the first three quarters and threw an inexcusable pick-6 to begin the second half.
But what McCarthy pulled off in the fourth quarter should leave Vikings fans feeling fantastic about the future. He threw for 87 yards and two touchdowns, completed 6 of 8 passes, and ran in another score to cap the comeback. McCarthy rose to the occasion and certainly earned the trust and respect of his teammates and fans.
Penix, meanwhile, fell to 1-3 as a starter following Atlanta's three-point loss to the Buccaneers, managing just 20 points at home against a Tampa Bay defense considered to be in the league's bottom tier. Now, Penix will have to score at least 20 points on the road against a superior defense that stifled Caleb Williams (outside of the opening drive) to cover the 3.5 points. Expect the Vikings' defense to turn in an even better performance at home to prevent that from happening.
π Bet: Under 28.5 passing attempts
The Vikings made a point of running the ball with their combo of Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones during their Week 1 victory over the Bears. Even while trailing throughout most of the game, Minnesota kept pounding the rock at a high rate.
McCarthy made only 20 throws in his debut. To expect the Vikings to increase his usage by nine more attempts seems unlikely, even if they can move the ball more effectively against the Falcons' defense.
π Bet: Over 19.5 rushing yards
This prop correlates with McCarthy's under on passing attempts, and it's one we hit last week in the Monday night preview. The second-year quarterback only rushed twice last week, but he collected 25 yards on the ground. McCarthy isn't afraid to use his legs, having averaged 15.8 rushing yards per game in college.
π Bet: Over 14.5 rushing attempts
Mason ran the ball very well in his Vikings debut, turning 15 carries into 68 yards. Minnesota started Week 1 by giving Jones the bulk of the running back touches but quickly got Mason involved. It was clear which running back had more of a burst and was a far more dangerous runner. Expect the Vikings to continue increasing the workload of their younger - and more effective - running back.
π Bet: Over 3.5 receptions
In Penix's three games to close out the 2024 season, Robinson caught only seven passes on 12 targets. In the Falcons' Week 1 loss to the Bucs, Robinson was far more involved in the passing game, earning seven targets for six receptions and 100 receiving yards. There's no reason for Atlanta to get away from targeting its explosive running back through the air. He's a game-changer in open space, and the Falcons are going to need his playmaking if they have any chance at winning.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+175)
London didn't produce elite stats in the season opener, but it's clear Atlanta will make the former top-10 pick a focal point of its passing attack in 2025. London ranked second in targets (15) among all wideouts in Week 1, including two in the red zone. These are great odds considering how many opportunities London will have to score in this contest.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+425)
Nailor had an underrated season in 2024, hauling in 414 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The 26-year-old has a significant role on Minnesota's offense right now, especially with Jordan Addison suspended. Nailor played in over 87% of the Vikings' offensive snaps in the season opener, and he'll face a Falcons defense that allowed three touchdowns to opposing wideouts in Week 1. This is a solid long shot swing to take on Monday Night Football.
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