NFL Week 14 picks: 3 huge divisional games headline Sunday slate

We turned in a 9-6 record against the spread (ATS) last week, including 2-0 on our five-star selections, thanks to the 49ers' beatdown of the Browns and the Seahawks' domination of the Max Brosmer-led Vikings.

Let's keep the wins coming in Week 14, a slate highlighted by three huge divisional rivalries in the NFC North, AFC North, and AFC South.

👉 Check out all of the Week 14 markets available on theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Seahawks (-6.5)

It seems like every other week that the Seahawks travel to the East Coast to face a low-tier team and are asked to cover a big spread. Two weeks ago, Seattle was an 11.5-point favourite over the Titans, who aren't significantly worse than the Falcons. Although the Seahawks only won by six, the point is that this spread is too short.

With Kirk Cousins at quarterback, the Falcons' offense won't be able to score enough on a stout Seahawks defense to cover. Seattle is 5-1 ATS on the road this season and should continue to roll as it tries to keep pace in a crowded NFC West.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Commanders (-1.5)

The Vikings have a problem at quarterback, and it's impossible to trust whoever they start. J.J. McCarthy will be back under center this week, but he hasn't shown any ability to operate an NFL offense in his first season. Brosmer clearly wasn't the answer, and I'm not so sure McCarthy is, either.

The Commanders gave the Broncos all they could handle last week, forcing overtime against one of the league's best defenses. Jayden Daniels is returning from a nasty elbow injury, and the spread moved from Commanders +1.5 to Commanders -1.5 as a result. I don't think the spread moved enough to account for the upgrade from Marcus Mariota to Daniels.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bengals (+5.5)

Joe Burrow looked great in his return to action, beating the Ravens handily on the road on Thanksgiving Day. Cincinnati now gets the rest advantage and 5.5 points to face the Bills, who have underwhelmed at times this season.

This is a play on the Bengals having new life with Burrow back rather than a bet against the Bills. Rarely is Burrow this big of an underdog, so you have to take the points and hope Cincinnati's defense can compete.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Browns (-3.5)

I faded the Browns heavily at home last week against the 49ers, but the Titans present a completely different test - one that the Browns should be able to handle. Cleveland's defense is the best unit in this game, head and shoulders above the Titans' defense, and both teams have similarly rated offenses. Myles Garrett, the leading candidate for the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year award, could single-handedly win this game for the Browns.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Ravens (-5.5)

Both of these teams were embarrassed in Week 13. The Steelers lost by 19 to the Bills, and the Ravens lost by 18 to the Bengals. However, I believe Baltimore is better equipped to bounce back than Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are a distracted group, with fans demanding Mike Tomlin's firing and Aaron Rodgers calling out teammates for running the wrong routes while fielding questions about his coach's decisions. The Ravens weren't prepared to play the Bengals on Thanksgiving, but a few extra days of rest should help against a division rival.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Colts (-1.5)

Daniel Jones has regressed from his hot start to the season - potentially because he's playing through a broken fibula - but he was OK against the Texans' league-best defense last week despite only scoring 16 points. I'm not as worried about his health as I was this time last week.

Yes, the Colts have lost three of their last four and have let their division lead slip away. They now share an 8-4 record with the Jaguars. However, while the Colts were losing back-to-back games to the Chiefs and Texans, Jacksonville picked up victories over the Titans and Cardinals that may be inflating the Jags' value in the market.

Based on their body of work this season, I believe the Colts are a better team and should be favored by more points in this contest.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Jets (+3)

I'm not going to spend too much time on this game because I'm going to spend zero time watching it. The Jets covered in this exact spot last week as a field-goal underdog at home against the Falcons. The Dolphins are in the same tier as the Falcons, so there's no reason to deviate from a strategy that worked last week.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Buccaneers (-8.5)

The Saints covered as 5.5-point underdogs against the Dolphins last week, but the Buccaneers are superior to Miami on both sides of the ball. Bucky Irving returned to help the Bucs' beat-up offense, and Chris Godwin Jr. had his best game of the season. I don't see how the Saints score enough to cover this number.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Raiders (+7.5)

This feels gross, but who in their right mind is taking the Raiders? That alone leads me to believe the Raiders are the right side as big home underdogs in a divisional game. There isn't much separating the Commanders and Raiders, and the Broncos just beat Washington by one point in overtime.

Denver should win this game, but a 20-14 Broncos victory is still a win for the Raiders against the spread.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Rams (-8.5)

The Rams lost a shocker last week on the road to the Panthers as 10-point favorites. I don't see them failing to cover a big spread against a bad team for a second consecutive week.

The Rams struggled in the Carolina rain, but luckily for them, they get to play inside a dome in Arizona. Additionally, the Rams have been blowing teams out this season, with six of their nine wins coming by double-digit points.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Bears (+6.5)

The Bears continue to be one of the most underrated teams by the market. Getting 6.5 points with a 9-3 team feels like stealing, especially when they won outright in a similar spot a week ago. The Bears closed as seven-point underdogs to the Eagles on Black Friday and won 24-15. Yes, the Packers are likely a better team than the Eagles, but this spread remains too high, especially in a divisional showdown.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.