NFL Week 15 picks: Can Bills prevent Pats from clinching AFC East?

I have no room to complain about bad beats for the rest of the season after landing on the right side of last week's Broncos-Raiders game. If you missed it: Las Vegas kicked a pointless field goal with five seconds left to trim Denver's lead from 10 points to seven, covering the 7.5-point spread while hitting the over.

Even with the lucky Raiders cover, I could only manage a 6-8 record on the week. I was completely wrong on the Commanders and Jets, two teams with nothing left to play for. I did get the Seahawks' and Rams' blowouts correct though. These results are a reminder that we should be particularly cautious of letdown spots - where teams fail to show up - for the remainder of the year.

Let's dive into our picks against the spread (ATS) for Week 15's Sunday slate. Our Cowboys-Vikings bets for Sunday Night Football can be found in a separate article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 15 lines available at theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Bills (-1.5)

Week 15 is loaded with intriguing games, headlined by the Bills-Patriots clash. New England can claim the AFC East with a victory, but Buffalo is a tough out at this point in the season.

This is Josh Allen's time of year. He's 18-3 in December since 2020, having thrived in cold, wintery conditions that most teams struggle with. Buffalo is averaging 157.8 rush yards, the most in the league. That bodes well for its chances in a potential snow-filled affair at Gillette Stadium.

Although the Patriots are riding a 10-game winning streak, they haven't faced a group of the Bills' caliber since beating them in Week 5. You can't fault New England for winning matchups against lesser opponents, though I still don't trust the Patriots enough to believe they'll defeat a really good Bills team a second time.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Raiders (+12.5)

This could be a letdown game for the Raiders, but the Eagles simply can't be trusted to cover double-digit points with the way they're playing. Philadelphia has lost three straight and is struggling to score points. Jalen Hurts and Co. are averaging just 16.2 points over their last five outings. If that trend sticks, it will be very hard to cover 12.5 points.

The 38.5-point game total is also a telling sign that Las Vegas is the side to take. Low-scoring affairs give big underdogs a better chance to cover, and I don't see how the Eagles, who enter on a short week after playing Monday night, win this game with a score like 24-10.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Browns (+7.5)

The Bears haven't been favored by this many points all year, and they're not exactly known for winning by wide margins. Six of their nine victories have been decided by five points or fewer.

I trust the Browns' defense to rebound after allowing 31 points to the Titans. Myles Garrett is closing in on the NFL's single-season sacks record, and the team knows that. I expect a considerable effort from Cleveland, especially with Shedeur Sanders providing some late-season life.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Commanders (+2.5)

I'm choosing to get back on the Commanders while the betting market reads too much into their 31-0 loss to the Vikings.

Marcus Mariota is back under center after Jayden Daniels injured his elbow again. The 11-year veteran provides stability to Washington and, right now, gives it the best chance to win. Let's not forget the Commanders are one game removed from taking the AFC-leading Broncos to overtime (with Mariota starting).

Someone has to be favored in this matchup consisting of two teams with a combined five wins, but I'm not comfortable laying any amount of points with the Giants.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bengals (+3)

Joe Burrow has proved his value since returning from injury, dismantling the Ravens on Thanksgiving and making the Bills sweat in the snow. Now, the Bengals welcome Baltimore, which they previously beat 32-14, to Cincinnati with their season on the line.

It's a major long shot, but the Bengals still have a chance to make the playoffs. Regardless, I can't back the Ravens as road favorites in a divisional contest. Lamar Jackson doesn't look good, and Baltimore has lost back-to-back home games to AFC North rivals.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Texans (-9.5)

The Texans' defense is the best unit in football based on expected points added per play (EPA/play), according to SumerSports. The group stifles opponents and factors into the final score more than any offense in the league. This week's victim will be the Cardinals.

Arizona, sitting 3-10, has little to play for, while Houston, which just defeated Kansas City by 10 points on the road, is fighting for a division title and a playoff spot. This could be one of the week's most lopsided games.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Chargers (+5.5)

Although the Chargers have their flaws, especially on the offensive line, it's disrespectful to give them 5.5 points against the Chiefs. Sure, this is taking place at Arrowhead, but Kansas City has failed to cover in back-to-back home games in which it was favored by more than a field goal. In fact, the Chiefs have failed to cover in five straight games, yet the market doesn't seem to have adjusted at all.

Los Angeles is playing incredible defense, while Kansas City's unit is average. I believe this divisional matchup will come down to the final possession, and I'll always take 5.5 points in that scenario.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Jaguars (-12.5)

The Jets are starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback. No offense to Cook, but he probably isn't talented enough to be starting an NFL game. The Mizzou product filled in for an injured Tyrod Taylor last week, throwing two interceptions and taking six sacks while completing only 14 of 30 passes.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are rolling and sitting atop the AFC South after defeating the Colts last week. I anticipate a beatdown in Duval County.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

👉 Check out all of the Week 15 lines available at theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: 49ers (-11.5)

The Titans picked up their second win of the season last week and now head west to battle a well-rested 49ers team that's in the thick of the playoff hunt. Tennessee, which has been an underdog in every contest, is 6-7 ATS but has also lost six games by at least 14 points.

San Francisco has won three straight games by 11 or more points, all of which came against teams that are better than the Titans. This one shouldn't be close either, considering the 49ers have had two weeks to prepare.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Panthers (-2.5)

The Saints, who beat the Panthers 17-7 in Week 10, are coming off a surprise victory in Tampa Bay. But expecting them to win back-to-back contests and best Carolina a second time is too much to ask for.

The Panthers need to win this game to keep pace with the Buccaneers in the NFC South. They can't afford to drop a divisional matchup to New Orleans at this point in the season, and I don't think they will.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Seahawks (-13.5)

It doesn't feel great to be backing all of the favorites in big-spread games, but the Colts will likely be starting 44-year-old Phillip Rivers, whom they signed to try to keep their playoff hopes alive. It's a head-scratching decision, and it's hard to believe Rivers, who hasn't played since 2020, is their best option at quarterback.

Seattle fields one of the best defenses in the league and deploys Offensive Player of the Year favorite Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks, who have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl on theScore Bet, should breeze past depleted Indianapolis.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Packers (-1.5)

Could this be a Super Bowl preview? The AFC-leading Broncos host the 9-3-1 Packers for a heavyweight tilt, with Green Bay having won three straight and Denver having won 10 straight. Someone's streak will end Sunday.

What's concerning about the Broncos is that they've failed to cover in five games during their win streak, including three of their last four. Denver is potentially overrated in the betting market despite having one of the best records in the league.

I trust the Packers' offense much more than the Broncos' and view their defenses similarly. Therefore, laying 1.5 points with Green Bay isn't as scary a proposition, but this one could truly go either way.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Lions (+6.5)

Two of the league's most potent offenses - led by MVP favorite Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, who are facing their former teams - will meet at SoFi Stadium in a game with the highest point total of the week (54.5).

Although the Rams could potentially be the best group in the NFL, I don't believe they're 6.5 points better than the Lions, especially in a dome. Detroit can go toe to toe with anyone, and while L.A.'s defense is good, it did just give up 24 points to the Panthers two weeks ago (one Carolina score was a defensive touchdown).

If I had to pick the winner, I'd side with the home team, but I think the Lions are the side to back when getting nearly a touchdown indoors.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

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