Hart Trophy Rankings: Draisaitl fending off challengers in stretch run

The MVP race has crystallized with a little more than a month left in the NHL's regular season. Nowhere is that more evident than in the top three, where the race remains unchanged.

Our leader remains ahead of the pack on the strength of his all-around play, but both of his top rivals in the chase have also been elite since our last edition of these rankings Feb. 7.

The fringes of the race have had some movement, however. A new contender emerged thanks to David Pastrnak fading from relevance with his Boston Bruins selling off significant assets and all but waving the white flag on the playoffs before the March 7 trade deadline.

Here are our top five candidates to claim the Hart Trophy as we head into the home stretch of the 2024-25 campaign.

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five
GSAx = Goals saved above expected
GSAA = Goals saved above average

5. Dustin Wolf, Flames

Previous: Unranked

Wolf is in the mix for the Vezina Trophy and the Calder, and the Calgary netminder deserves a little MVP consideration, too. He might not win any of these awards, but Wolf, who turns 24 on April 16, has been stellar in his first full NHL season.

The California-born puck-stopper's excellent play has turned the Flames into unexpected playoff contenders. Calgary sits dead-last in goals per game (2.56). The club's leading scorers, Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri, have only 24 and 23 goals, respectively, along with just 48 points apiece.

The Flames are sitting in the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference. If Calgary makes the playoffs, Wolf will be the biggest reason why. He doesn't have as strong of an MVP case as others on this list, but the youngster is undoubtedly carrying his team.

4. Jack Eichel, Golden Knights

Previous: 5

Eichel hasn't been on fire since our last edition relative to the others listed here, but the Vegas center continues to significantly outperform his teammates while ranking among the NHL's best point producers.

The star forward has one goal and 11 assists over 10 games since our previous installment. However, he's racked up at least 22 more points and 18 more assists than any other Golden Knights skater on the season. Eichel is tied for fourth in the NHL in assists and sits eighth in the Art Ross Trophy race this campaign.

Eichel has minus-3.2 defensive goals above replacement in 2024-25, but he ranks among the NHL's top 20 in all three primary "above replacement" categories (wins, standings points, and goals), which account for all-around play. Eichel's rate of 1.99 goals against per 60 minutes is better than those of our top two contenders. The 28-year-old has been the biggest factor in Vegas holding down top spot in the Pacific Division.

3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Previous: 3

Hellebuyck has been a shoo-in for the Vezina for months, and any doubts about his worthiness as a potential Hart finalist have been put to rest as he continues to lap the field at the game's most important position.

The Winnipeg Jets goaltender has had some help from a few teammates up front, but he has provided immense value. Hellebuyck has a WAR of 7.2, and the next closest netminder is Wolf at 4.9. No other goalies even have 30 GSAx or 25 GSAA.

Hellebuyck leads all NHL puck-stoppers in wins (by eight), save percentage (among those with at least nine games played), shutouts (with six), and only two others have faced more shots in 2024-25.

2. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche

Previous: 2

MacKinnon hasn't missed a beat since he won the Hart last season. The Colorado Avalanche superstar is pacing the Art Ross race and has a sizeable league lead in assists. He sits atop the NHL in even-strength points (69), and his average ice time leads all forwards in 2024-25.

The Nova Scotian center has 24 more assists and 27 more points than second-place Cale Makar among Colorado skaters, and MacKinnon leads the NHL with 19 points over 10 games since our last edition. Martin Necas has fit in seamlessly with the Avalanche since arriving in the trade that shipped Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes, but MacKinnon is still doing the heavy lifting for Colorado.

The 29-year-old's underlying numbers have been excellent this season. He's been nearly as good as our leader from a purely defensive standpoint, and his scoring chances for percentage at five-on-five (61.27) ranks first among all the league's forwards who have played at least 700 minutes in those situations.

1. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers

Previous: 1

Draisaitl is having a sublime season, and the 2019-20 MVP deserves to win the award for the second time. The Edmonton Oilers dynamo has a comfortable cushion in the race for the "Rocket" Richard Trophy, and only MacKinnon is ahead of him in the points race. Draisaitl is riding a 16-game point streak during which he's amassed 24. He leads the NHL in even-strength goals (32) and ranks second in even-strength points (68).

The German is greatly outpacing his teammates, and that's impressive considering one of them is three-time Hart winner Connor McDavid. Draisaitl has nearly twice as many goals as the Oilers captain (24), and 14 more points. He's played six more games than McDavid, but that still demonstrates how valuable Draisaitl has been to Edmonton.

The 29-year-old's defense continues to set him apart from MacKinnon and the rest of his peers. Draisaitl leads the league in WAR, SPAR, and GAR, and his 1.1 defensive GAR edge out MacKinnon's 0.7. Draisatil's xGF and SCF percentages are nearly unparalleled league-wide, and all of these figures illustrate why he should be in the driver's seat to win the Hart again.

Keep an eye on:

• Quinn Hughes, Canucks
• Nikita Kucherov, Lightning
• Zach Werenski, Blue Jackets
• Tim Stutzle, Senators

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)