Each Canadian playoff team's reasons for optimism, pessimism
A Canadian team hasn't won the Stanley Cup in 32 years, but the second round of the 2025 playoffs is providing hope. Toronto leads its series with Florida, 2-1, Edmonton's up 2-0 over Vegas, and Winnipeg's tied 1-1 with Dallas. Below, we discuss reasons for optimism and pessimism for the three Canadian clubs.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Optimistic view: Toronto dictated the style and pace of play in Games 1 and 2 - two wins - and held its own in a Game 3 overtime loss. That's an extremely encouraging sign in a series against a well-oiled machine like the Panthers.
The team with the most puck-battle wins has won each game, and in the Leafs' victories those battles have helped them attack off the rush with numbers. William Nylander's collected six points, four of them off the rush and a fifth when he joined the play late with downhill speed after a line change.
Other series standouts include Max Pacioretty (five points, team-high 16 hits), Matthew Knies (four points, forechecking nightmare), and Morgan Rielly (two goals, two assists). Shutdown defensemen Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev have been superb. Both are key to the penalty kill, and the Leafs are outscoring the Panthers 4-1 in the pair's 50-plus five-on-five minutes together.
Pessimistic view: Auston Matthews hasn't been bad so far. In fact, he's contributed three assists, and his line with Knies and Mitch Marner has held Aleksander Barkov's line off the scoresheet at five-on-five.
Yet, Matthews hasn't looked himself as a sniper. He's hesitant to shoot, especially on the power play, and when he does, the puck rarely meets its target. Matthews has 25 attempts in Round 2 but only 11 shots on goal. He has yet to solve Sergei Bobrovksy and scored just twice in the first round.
Meanwhile, Leafs Nation is holding its breath every time Joseph Woll handles the puck. Woll's been competent in relief for Anthony Stolarz but had enough uh-oh moments in 165 minutes of crease time to fill a lengthy lowlight reel.
A third mild concern: Tanev's durability. He's been on the receiving end of a playoff-high 71 hits for an average of 7.9 per game. He left Game 3 briefly, and it feels like he's one awkward collision from ending up on injured reserve.
Edmonton Oilers
Optimistic view: The Oilers top the playoffs in goals (4.5 per night) and ride a record streak of comeback wins (six in a row) into a homestand at Rogers Place, where they can nudge the Golden Knights to the brink. If the clock's still ticking, their playmakers and shooters know they can strike next and erase any deficit. That's a major psychological advantage.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl's awesome production - they combined for 27 points through eight games - aligns with their career averages, so no letup or drop-off is coming. Edmonton's prevailed twice in overtime because of McDavid's suite of unstoppable traits (acceleration, stickhandling, and vision) and Draisaitl's precise finishing.
A league-high seven Oilers have already buried at least three goals. Corey Perry's revival, Evander Kane's return to health, and breakouts from Connor Brown and Vasily Podkolzin strengthened each of Kris Knoblauch's forward trios. The defense corps is imperfect but plainly benefited from the in-season additions of John Klingberg and Jake Walman.
Pessimistic view: Comebacks are magical, but the Oilers seem unable to start on time and have trailed in every playoff game. They've conceded three opening goals within three minutes of puck drop and six by the middle of the first period. While Knoblauch presents a calm front, that must make his stomach churn.
The penalty kill, a forte of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final squad, owns the league's worst success rate (59.3%). Opposing power plays boast four multi-goal performances. Losing three cornerstones of last year's airtight PK - the injured Mattias Ekholm, plus Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais - forced worse killers to take on bigger roles.
Other concerns about Edmonton are hypothetical. Calvin Pickard's .888 save percentage has yet to lead to a loss, but if he begins to spring leaks, can Knoblauch confidently turn back to Stuart Skinner? Hold that thought for now.
Winnipeg Jets
Optimistic view: Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi returned to the lineup in the second half of the first round. Mark Scheifele came back in Game 1 versus the Stars, and Josh Morrissey returned in Friday's Game 2. The Jets are finally at full force.
The returnees' performances have ratcheted up the optimism, most notably Ehlers and Vilardi. Ehlers, a playoff no-show in the past, was flying throughout Game 2's victory, scoring twice on a game-high seven shots and adding a primary assist in less than 15 minutes of ice time. Vilardi, also a Game 2 goal-scorer, is generating inner-slot scoring chances at a high rate.
Winnipeg almost didn't make it past St. Louis because superstar goalie Connor Hellebuyck faltered in multiple games. Well, he stopped all 21 Dallas shots Friday. His second-period glove save on Evgenii Dadonov was unreal, and overall his confidence appears to be back at an appropriate level.
Pessimistic view: Mikko Rantanen is on the other team.
The power forward has been a wrecking ball all playoffs. Since the Stars failed to score Friday, Rantanen enters Sunday's Game 3 with his wacko streak intact; he's somehow registered a point on each of Dallas' last 12 goals.
The Avalanche had no answer for Rantanen in Round 1 and neither did the Jets in Game 1, as the former Av torched Winnipeg with a second-period hat trick. The series is shifting to Dallas, which means Pete DeBoer, one of the best matchup coaches in the NHL, should have an easier time getting Rantanen away from Jets captain and top defensive center Adam Lowry.
Not to be forgotten: Hellebuyck collapsed in epic fashion on the road in the first round. For as good as he looked Friday, he needs a signature performance outside of Winnipeg before the doubters stop doubting him.
John Matisz and Nick Faris cover the NHL for theScore.