Maple Leafs need typical November surge more than ever

In any other year, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be taking a lot of heat right now. Fortunately for them, the Blue Jays' World Series run has largely made the Maple Leafs an afterthought in Ontario's capital this October.

The Maple Leafs enter Thursday 11th in the Eastern Conference with a 5-5-1 record. The reigning Atlantic Division champions have three wins in regulation and none on the road. Their goal differential sits at minus-4. All this while playing just two games against teams that made the playoffs a year ago.

And yet, history shows us that the slow start should be no reason to hit the panic button. The Maple Leafs, who own the NHL's longest active playoff streak at nine seasons, typically rebound from sluggish Octobers with scorching Novembers.

Can they do it again this year? There's reason to believe that a drastic turnaround once the calendar flips to November is less of a guarantee than it has been in the past. That's in part due to the gaping hole on the team's top line. For all the flak Mitch Marner received for his playoff performances, there's no denying he was integral to Toronto's regular-season success.

Without Marner, the Maple Leafs continue to search for someone to flank first-line center Auston Matthews - who has yet to really take off with just five goals and three assists in 11 games. The combination of the Maple Leafs captain between Matthew Knies and Max Domi that jelled during Matthews' 69-goal season in 2023-24 hasn't worked. Newcomer Matias Maccelli alongside Matthews and Knies didn't last long. The underlying numbers with Matthews, Knies, and rookie Easton Cowan were strong, but the production wasn't there.

Bobby McMann and William Nylander have most recently featured on Matthews' line, but it's fair to wonder if McMann has the playmaking chops to get the most out of the three-time Maurice "Rocket" Richard winner. While Nylander and Matthews have chemistry, in a perfect world, Toronto's two best forwards anchor their own lines.

It feels inevitable that the Maple Leafs will attempt to add a top-six winger at some point before the deadline, but with only three picks in the 2026 draft and no first-rounder until 2028, it won't be easy. Other than Cowan and 2024 first-round pick Ben Danford, Toronto's prospect pool is lacking.

Regardless, one forward won't fix all of Toronto's problems. This is still a team that's been largely outplayed most nights dating back to the start of last season when Marner was still in the fold.

The Maple Leafs rank 15th in shot differential and 19th in expected goals share at five-on-five this season. Despite still having a high-powered offense on paper, Toronto ranks 27th in expected goals for per 60 minutes and 19th in offensive zone time per game.

While the Maple Leafs are defending hard, ranking 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, they haven't been getting saves. Anthony Stolarz, who's started eight of the team's 11 games with Joseph Woll unavailable to begin the year, hasn't been particularly sharp. He owns an .886 save percentage after leading the league with a .926 mark last season. He's saved 0.87 goals above expected after finishing second in the NHL with 31.2 GSAx a year ago.

Toronto's underlying numbers were below average in its first season under head coach Craig Berube in 2024-25, but much of that was hidden thanks to great goaltending and an opportunistic offense. The Maple Leafs finished 19th in xGF%, 20th in xGF/60, and 16th in xGA/60 at five-on-five last season.

More sustained offensive pressure and, in turn, less time defending could lead to better results from Stolarz. Increased O-zone time could be achieved if the Maple Leafs find the right mix up front, but that seems like a big "if" given the results under Berube since the start of last season.

If everything does come together, the Maple Leafs could take off and, as usual, re-establish themselves as a top-10 team in the league. If it doesn't, the underlying concerns will become magnified, and the negativity in Toronto will grow rapidly as more eyes turn to the Maple Leafs in November.

(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)