UFC 301 best bets: Pantoja, Erceg go over in main event

Alexandre Pantoja is set to make the second defense of his UFC flyweight title against Steve Erceg in the main event of UFC 301 on Saturday.

The card also features the return of Hall of Famer Jose Aldo, who takes on Jonathan Martinez at bantamweight.

Here are two best bets for the event before action begins at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

Pantoja-Erceg over 3.5 rounds (-150)

Pantoja's championship win against Brandon Moreno and his first title defense against Brandon Royval both went the five-round distance, and his fight with Erceg will be no different.

It's hard to get a feel for how Saturday's main event will play out because of the question marks with Erceg. The inexperienced Australian made his UFC debut less than a year ago and is 3-0, with his most recent win coming against Matt Schnell. On paper, Pantoja's more proven, holding wins over elite competition. But what we've seen from Erceg has been very impressive, leading me to believe he'll at least be competitive with the champ.

As long as Erceg manages to keep Pantoja off his back in the first round or two, expect the flyweights to go deep. The over 3.5 rounds prop is the best way to go if you're looking to place a bet on the fight, at a fairly cheap price of -150.

Pereira-Potieria under 1.5 rounds (-160)

After a turbulent first few years in the UFC, Michel Pereira's put everything together and is riding a seven-fight winning streak - with no signs of stopping anytime soon. Brazil's wildest and wackiest middleweight takes on Ihor Potieria on Saturday's main card, and an early finish is in store.

Pereira's found new life at 185 pounds, punching out Andre Petroski for a 66-second knockout win in October and then wrapping up a submission against Michal Oleksiejczuk in 61 seconds last March. Potieria, 2-3 in his last five outings dating back to 2022, isn't exactly a step up in competition from those other names, so I'm counting on Pereira to register another quick win in his home country.

Further, the under 1.5 rounds prop gives us an out if Potieria does manage to stun Pereira in what would be one of the card's biggest upsets. Sixteen of Potieria's 21 pro wins came inside the distance, so I don't suspect there's much chance this matchup makes it out of the second round either way.

Here are the full odds from theScore Bet for UFC 301 on May 4:

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+155)
• Jonathan Martinez (-140) vs. Jose Aldo (+120)
• Vitor Petrino (-650) vs. Anthony Smith (+425)
• Michel Pereira (-725) vs. Ihor Potieria (+450)
• Caio Borralho (-800) vs. Paul Craig (+475)

Preliminary card (ESPN at 8 p.m. ET)

• Joanderson Brito (-185) vs. Jack Shore (+155)
• Iasmin Lucindo (-400) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+300)
• Myktybek Orolbai (-260) vs. Elves Brener (+210)
• Drakkar Klose (-185) vs. Joaquim Silva (+155)

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET)

• Mauricio Ruffy (-220) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+180)
• Dione Barbosa (-240) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)
• Ismael Bonfim (-575) vs. Vinc Pichel (+385)
• Alessandro Costa (-135) vs. Kevin Borjas (+115)