Knicks vs. Pacers betting preview

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In one of the most compelling first-round series in recent memory, brimming with chaotic finishes and controversies, the Knicks prevailed over the Sixers in six games.

Meanwhile, the Pacers defeated the Bucks (also in six contests) in a less thrilling matchup, marking the first time Indiana advanced in the playoffs in a decade.

The Knicks-Pacers showdown is a clash between two teams with opposing play styles. Indiana's pace-and-space style, which led it to the NBA's second-best offense, will be challenged against New York's bruising, physical defense. It's not hard to guess which team will emerge victorious: The Knicks are -245 to win the series and the Pacers are +200.

This isn't a question of if the Knicks will win, but how many games will it take for them to win?

The Pacers were destined for a first-round exit after a subpar second half of the season and the deterioration of guard Tyrese Haliburton, who hasn't been the same since returning from a hamstring injury in late January.

But Indiana got the best draw in the postseason: a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks without MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire series and no Damian Lillard for two of the six games. Despite their competitive spirit, that version of Milwaukee is barely a play-in team. But it still took Indiana six games to advance.

Now the Pacers head to New York to take on another injury-riddled - yet unphased - seven-man rotation.

The Knicks outscored the Sixers by one point through six games but outrebounded them by 26 in the series, propelling them to four wins. The rebounding battle has been the difference for New York the past two seasons, and the team has a massive advantage over Indiana in that department.

New York's offensive rebounding rate also leads the league, as the team cleans up 33% of its misses. Indiana, meanwhile, has the fifth-worst opponent offensive rebounding rate. The Knicks generate points through offensive boards - they lead playoff teams in second-chance points - and the Pacers' suspect rebounding group has no chance of stopping that.

Great offensive rebounding teams usually send many players to the glass, leading to defensive transition miscues. But the Knicks, despite prioritizing the offensive boards, have an above-average transition defense. Their defensive balance is unaffected when Josh Hart flies in from the perimeter to get his hands on the ball.

Indiana excels in transition, scoring the NBA's fourth-most fast-break points. If the Knicks limit the Pacers' opportunities, it'll be an even quicker series than expected.

The Pacers led the league in paint points, and the Knicks ranked fifth in opponent paint points allowed. Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson's elite rim protection prevents easy baskets around the rim.

The series offers some intriguing individual matchups, but the Knicks are at an advantage because the Pacers can't defend. It's been their kryptonite all season - they had one of the league's worst defensive ratings and by far the worst among playoff teams.

As the Pacers attempt to blitz Jalen Brunson's pick-and-rolls, their weak point-of-attack defense won't stop him and his teammates from generating easy looks.

Haliburton, meanwhile, is one of the league's best passers, but a hesitant scorer. He comes off screens looking to pass instead of finding his shot or turning the corner to get to the rim. Brunson doesn't have that problem. While a willing passer, Brunson glides off ball screens in attack mode.

Brunson, the postseason's leading scorer, could also find even more motivation from two factors in this series: He played for Pacers coach Rick Carlisle in Dallas, where the head coach tendered Brunson sporadic postseason minutes in the former's final season there. And, Haliburton was named to the USA National Team for the upcoming Summer Olympics over Brunson, who's arguably the better overall player.

Expect Brunson's heroics to easily lead the Knicks past the Pacers.

Bet: Knicks in 5 (+310), Knicks in 6 (+450)

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.