USA, Canada favored in Olympic openers
The meaningless exhibitions are in the rearview. It's time for Olympic basketball.
Canada and the U.S. begin their quests for a gold medal this weekend. Team USA is a -400 (80% implied probability) favorite to capture its fifth straight Olympic gold, while Canada has the second-best odds with a deep roster filled with NBA talent.
The U.S. opens its journey against Serbia on Sunday at 11:15 a.m. ET. Team USA is a 12.5-point favorite and the over/under is 182. The Americans went 5-0 in their exhibitions but showed signs of vulnerability in comeback, single-digit wins over Australia, South Sudan, and Germany.
However, the U.S. dominated Serbia in a scrimmage earlier this month, as Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo held superstar Nikola Jokic to 16 points on 6-for-19 shooting.
Serbia was playing its second game in as many nights and sat Bogdan Bogdanovic, its second-best player, so the final score didn't accurately depict the true gap between these teams. That's why the line this time around is only 12.5.
Steph Curry carried the U.S. in the exhibition match, pouring in 24 points on 6-for-9 shooting from deep. Curry's point prop is 14.5 for the Olympic opener. James has Team USA's highest points prop at 15.5, while Jokic's is 18.5.
After Sunday's bout, the U.S. will play against South Sudan and Puerto Rico next week.
Canada, meanwhile, will compete in a much tougher group, beginning with Greece and two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo on Saturday at 3 p.m. ET. The Canadians are a 7.5-point favorite over Greece and the over/under is 172.
Canada and Greece didn't meet in a pre-Olympic scrimmage, but Canada looked impressive in an exhibition win over France. It also beat Puerto Rico and lost to the U.S. in exhibitions.
MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Canada's engine, and he has reliable talent surrounding him. RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Kelly Olynyk, and Andrew Nembhard were key contributors during Canada's showcases.
Canada's weakness is its size, but Greece doesn't pose much of an inside threat. Antetokounmpo is Greece's only NBA player, so he'll have to put forth a herculean effort to drag Greece, which has the sixth-best odds of winning gold, far in the tournament. Antetokounmpo's point prop is set at 25.5 against Canada. Gilgeous-Alexander leads Canada with a 21.5-point prop.
The group also includes Australia and Spain.
There will be plenty of NBA faces in the U.S. and Canada's respective openers, which oddsmakers expect the North American countries to win fairly easily.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.