NFL Week 2 O/U best bets: Packers' offense to bounce back vs. Lions
One week is in the books, and we're sitting at 3-2 with our NFL total plays, which includes a brutal one-point loss on the Cardinals-Titans over.
Alas, we'll take the winning record heading into Week 2, where a couple of totals seem ripe for wagers. Here are the totals we're targeting.
Giants @ Washington (-3.5, 41)
Sept. 16, 8:20 p.m. ET
This total is already on the move, down from an opening 42 after official news that Taylor Heinicke will get the start for Washington. That alone should have under bettors licking their chops, though this profiled as a low-scoring game even before he got the starting nod.
Many bettors know Heinicke for his inspired effort last postseason; what they should know is that he has a career 79.5 passer rating and 6.4 yards per attempt, which would both rank among the league's worst across a full season. Expect the coaching staff to shrink the field for Heinicke and take advantage of his mobility, which should mean fewer shots downfield and more running clock.
On the other side, the Giants' sluggish offense managed 13 points a week ago despite turning the ball over just once, which likely won't sustain against Washington's opportunistic defense. It was New York's eighth consecutive under, while Washington has gone under in six straight regular-season games and six of its last nine against the Giants. We're due for another on Thursday.
Pick: Under 41
Patriots (-5.5, 43) @ Jets
Sept. 19, 1 p.m.
What did you see in Week 1 that suggested either of these teams will be able to put up points in this one? Mac Jones looked good in his NFL debut, but the Patriots still fumbled it four times and managed just 16 points on 70 plays. Meanwhile, the Jets were held to 252 total yards by a Panthers defense that, while talented, is still developing an identity after a disastrous 2020.
On defense, though, it's a different story. Robert Salah's unit stifled Carolina's high-octane attack, while New England's defense held its own in Week 1 and is always dominant against its division rival. These teams have gone 7-2-1 to the under in their last 10 meetings and will struggle to score Sunday.
Pick: Under 43
Lions @ Packers (-10.5, 48.5)
Sept. 20, 8:15 p.m.
If it weren't for the Packers' clunker against the Saints' stout defense, we'd likely be talking about a total in the low 50s. Even that would be worth playing over, so you can imagine how we feel about this number.
Green Bay led the NFL in points per play (0.50) and points per drive (3.22) in 2020, and while it didn't look like it Sunday, this unit returned nearly all of its production from a year ago. It's a safer bet to expect that level of production Monday, especially against the Lions' defense, which had allowed 31 points by halftime of last week's 41-33 loss to the 49ers.
As we've already seen, garbage time is a gift for over bettors, and we should expect plenty of it with the Packers heavily favored. Green Bay is 8-2-1 to the over in its last 11 versus Detroit and could carry this one largely on its own.
Pick: Over 48.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.