MNF best bets: Eagles seek Super Bowl revenge in K.C.
What else do you need to set up this game?
It's a Super Bowl rematch.
All the most pertinent players are back from a back-and-forth classic.
The line opened at Chiefs -2.5 and immediately went to -3, only to see bettors buy back on the Eagles at a full field goal. That context is important because it shows the betting market's interest in the Eagles at a specific price - the key number of +3 - and oddsmakers' unwillingness to go back despite the popularity of the Chiefs at under three.
In Super Bowl LVII, Philadelphia closed as a one-point favorite. If all things were equal, moving that game from a neutral site to the confines of Arrowhead Stadium would result in about a two-point change in the line towards Kansas City for home-field advantage.
Maybe the Chiefs were underrated going into the big game in February - due to Patrick Mahomes' lingering ankle pain - but it's hard to imagine the Eagles deserve to be downgraded given their 8-1 start to this season. The case to be made for a wider discrepancy is that Kansas City's defense has improved, while the Eagles' metrics have dipped this year.
When in doubt, backing the Chiefs under a field goal is often a good idea, especially at home. However, there usually needs to be a secondary element to back that up - the market's overreaction to a Mahomes injury, the overrating of an opponent, etc. We're not seeing that here, as the Chiefs just closed at pick'em on a neutral field against Miami.
Last week, we hopped on +2.5, teasing it up to +8.5. With the Lions' dramatic comeback win over the Bears on Sunday, our work is already done, with this game remaining to close out a two-team 6-point teaser. If you missed that heart-attack-inducing leg, Thanksgiving is coming on Thursday, so you don't have to wait long for seconds with the Lions.
Lean: Eagles (+2.5), bet if line goes back to +3
Pick: Tease Eagles (+8.5) with Lions (-1.5) vs. Packers on Thursday
Jalen Hurts: Over 36.5 rushing yards
Jalen Hurts' sore leg had kept him from running at his usual rate for a couple of weeks, and his rushing yardage total in the market dropped from its usual level in the mid-40s. However, when the Eagles took on the Cowboys in a crucial game for the lead in the NFC East, it was time to break the glass in case of emergency. Hurts ran 10 times against Dallas, going over his lowest rushing yardage market total of his career.
This game doesn't matter much relative to the standings, but there's no better time for vengeance like the first time you see a team that beat you in the Super Bowl. Coming off a bye week, we'll hope that Hurts shows improvement with his lingering injury against a team he destroyed when they faced off in the Super Bowl.
Travis Kelce: Anytime touchdown
We usually like to get a little spicier in this space, but Travis Kelce can be found for as short as -105 in the betting markets as of Monday. Kelce's been as short as -180 to score this season and never down further than -125.
The reason for the discount is that Kelce's scored just once in his last four games, but right from the season opener that he missed, it's been an up-and-down season for the star tight end's health. Like Hurts, Kelce had a bye week to get refreshed after being an afterthought on the field in Germany.
Kelce had a similar dry spell at the end of last season, going six games without a touchdown down the stretch. Once the playoffs started, Kelce scored four touchdowns in the Chiefs' three do-or-die games. Monday night's game isn't critical, but it's worth backing him for a big game under the bright lights, regardless of whether his much-publicized love interest is in the house.
Odds: -120 or better
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.