Patriots starting QB odds: Should New England sit Drake Maye?
The Patriots will usher in a new era of New England football when they open training camp Wednesday. Bill Belichick won’t roam the organization’s sidelines for the first time this century, and his replacement, Jerod Mayo, will lead the team through a rebuild.
Quarterback Mac Jones was dealt to the Jaguars in March, ending a three-year stint in Foxborough in which his development trended in the wrong direction. The Patriots drafted Drake Maye third overall the following month.
New England needs Maye to be its savior. Using the No. 3 pick on the North Carolina product indicates the Patriots believe his athleticism and arm talent will translate to the NFL.
But there are still questions about whether he or career backup Jacoby Brissett will get the nod under center for New England’s season opener against the Bengals on Sept. 8. Heading into training camp, the odds have Brissett as a -300 favorite (75% implied probability) to start Week 1 and Maye as a +210 (32% implied probability) underdog.
The Patriots have one of the NFL’s weakest rosters, and oddsmakers have given them a win total of only 4.5. They’re also the favorites to have the league’s worst record.
Putting Maye in that situation could set him up for failure. Even if he outperforms Brissett during training camp, Maye should start the season on the bench if the Patriots don’t roster enough gifted players to elevate the rookie. Oddsmakers agree that’s New England’s most likely path.
“We're not sitting here saying that Drake is our starting quarterback,” Mayo said in April. “I think he understands that. He understands the things that he has to get better at.”
Brissett, meanwhile, started his career in New England in 2016, spending his rookie season as the third-string quarterback behind Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. However, Brady was suspended for the first four games and Garoppolo suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2, so Brissett started in two contests.
He’s bounced around the league, playing for five teams in eight seasons. Brissett’s longest stint was a four-year run with the Colts, and the former third-round pick’s best campaign came in Indianapolis in 2019, when he threw for just under 3,000 yards, had 18 touchdowns to just six interceptions, and won seven games as a starter. In the last three seasons, he’s played for the Dolphins, Browns, and, most recently, the Commanders, racking up an 18-30 record over that span. It’s obvious Brissett is a backup, but even the top tier quarterbacks couldn’t muster much success with the Patriots’ hopeless roster.
Brissett will serve as a bridge in New England as Maye develops. At some point this season, though, the Patriots must give Maye in-game reps to get a good look at his potential. That just won’t happen in Week 1.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.