NFL Playoff Picture - Week 14: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

AFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

New week, same story: The Kansas City Chiefs found a way to win in the dying seconds, this time with a game-winning field goal against the Los Angeles Chargers. With the triumph, Andy Reid's outfit clinched its ninth straight AFC West title and got closer to clinching a postseason bye.

The Buffalo Bills' chances of getting the AFC's No. 1 seed took a big hit after they lost 44-42 to the Los Angeles Rams despite Josh Allen accounting for six touchdowns. Buffalo is still the 2-seed, though, as it holds the tiebreaker over the Pittsburgh Steelers based on the strength of its victories.

It'll be interesting to see if Pittsburgh can keep up with Kansas City and Buffalo here. The Steelers - who've won seven of their past eight games - have tough matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals to close their regular season.

In the hunt

The Indianapolis Colts had a bye this week but remain the first AFC team outside of the playoff picture thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Dolphins, who walked off the New York Jets in overtime Sunday. Indy has a matchup versus Denver coming up and then one of the league's easiest schedules remaining, so Anthony Richardson and Co. still have a chance of making things interesting if they upset the Broncos next week.

NFC

x = clinched playoff berth
y = clinched division title
z = clinched first-round bye

The Detroit Lions officially clinched a playoff berth with their last-second Thursday Night Football win. By sweeping the season series versus the Green Bay Packers, Detroit increased its chances of having a first-round bye in the playoffs to 60%, according to The Athletic.

The Eagles also booked their postseason tickets this week after a narrow win over the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles, as well as the Minnesota Vikings, remain alive in the race for the No. 1 seed, but the Lions would own the tiebreaker if they finish the regular season with the same record. Detroit hosts Minnesota in a Week 18 divisional clash that could have major playoff implications.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the South again despite being 0-2 against the Atlanta Falcons in 2024. On Sunday, the Bucs defeated the Las Vegas Raiders, and the division-rival Falcons lost to the Vikings. Atlanta's fourth loss in a row delivered another hit to its playoff chances (more on that below).

The Seattle Seahawks dominated the Arizona Cardinals on the road to keep the top spot in the division. Seattle is 4-0 since its Week 10 bye. Mike Macdonald's outfit isn't the only team from the West with momentum, though.

In the hunt

Here come the Rams. Sean McVay's team - winners of two in a row - claimed a statement triumph over Buffalo to become the NFC's 8-seed with four games left in the season. Winning the division is also very much in play for the Rams, who are one game behind the Seahawks but have already defeated Seattle this year. The two rivals play each other again in their regular-season finale.

The Rams have a 33% chance of making the playoffs, against the Seahawks' 61%, according to The Athletic. The Falcons are currently at 48%, down from 63% before their latest loss.

Projected NFL draft order

The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't projected to have the No. 1 overall pick in 2025 anymore after defeating the Tennessee Titans despite playing Mac Jones at quarterback over an injured Trevor Lawrence. The 2-11 Raiders are now first in the projected order for next year's NFL draft. They are one of two two-win teams along with the New York Giants, but Las Vegas wins the tiebreaker for playing against a schedule with a lower win percentage. The Raiders haven't had the first overall pick since 2007 when they drafted JaMarcus Russell.