Week 17 betting preview: Will Vikings sweep season series vs. Packers?

The NFL regular season is nearing an end. At this point, only a few teams are playing meaningful football, while the rest of the league is competing for jobs.

The league scheduled Saturday games that will help get rid of the horrible taste left in fans’ mouths after the Thursday night snoozer between the Bears and Seahawks, and one of those contests is covered below.

Let’s get to it.

Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET

The Bengals (7-8) kept their narrow playoff hopes alive with a victory over the Browns last week but are still +1500 to make the playoffs at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. Meanwhile, the Broncos (9-6) are -900 to extend their season and will punch their ticket with a win on the road.

Case for the Broncos

• The Broncos' defense is allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (18.7) and may be one of the few units in the league that can slow Joe Burrow.
• If Patrick Surtain II can limit Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, the Bengals’ offense becomes far less dynamic.
• Bo Nix isn’t playing like a rookie quarterback, and the Bengals’ defense gives up the fifth-most points in the league (26.2).
• Denver is ranked ninth in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), while Cincinnati is 17th.

Case for the Bengals

• Burrow is playing at an MVP level but isn’t in consideration because of the Bengals' 7-8 record. They can score 30 points on anyone, which should be good enough to cover.
• It’s a must-win game for Cincinnati at home. Backing the more desperate team isn’t a bad idea.

Key trends

• The Broncos have a league-best 11-4 record against the spread (ATS) and have covered five consecutive games.
• The Bengals are 9-6 ATS and covered the last three contests.
• Denver is 6-2 ATS on the road, while Cincinnati is 2-5 at home.

Pick: Broncos +3.5

We’ll side with the Broncos getting slightly over a touchdown on the road. Denver’s defense can limit a Bengals air raid that many teams struggled with this season, while on offense, Nix should be able to move the ball with ease. The 49.5 total suggests a shootout could be on hand, and we’ll bank on Denver keeping it close.

Player to watch

Courtland Sutton - Over 5.5 receptions (+105)

Sutton reeled in six or more passes in six of his past eight games and has seen six or more targets in nine straight contests. Nix will need to look his way often to keep up with Burrow, and Sutton should benefit from a high-paced environment.

Chase Brown - Over 108.5 rushing + receiving yards (-122)

Brown’s production skyrocketed after he took over as the Bengals’ starting running back. He surpassed 108.5 total yards in five of his past seven games.

Sunday 4:25 p.m.

Two of the NFL’s best teams face off in Minnesota, as the Vikings (13-2) host the Packers (11-4) for a crucial NFC North tilt. Both teams have clinched a playoff spot, but the division crown is still up for grabs.

Case for the Packers

• The Packers are playing incredible football of late, but you can't take anything from their dominating victory over the Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans isn’t an NFL-caliber team at the moment.
• Green Bay has a top-seven scoring offense and a defense giving up the sixth-fewest points.
• The team is ranked three spots higher based on DVOA.

Case for the Vikings

• The Vikings won the first meeting between the two teams at Lambeau Field.
• Minnesota has shown no signs of slowing down all season. After a two-game losing streak in October, it’s won eight straight.
• The Vikings have the slight rest advantage after the Packers played Monday night.

Key trends

• The Vikings are 10-4-1 ATS and 5-2 at home.
• The Packers are 9-6 ATS and 4-2 on the road.
• The over is 6-9 in Minnesota’s games and 6-8-1 in Green Bay’s.

Pick: Vikings -1.5

It’s a toss-up, and we’re splitting hairs between two elite teams, but we’ll side with the home team in what should be a tight contest. The Vikings’ fantastic run-stopping defense will cause problems for Josh Jacobs, who only managed 51 yards in their last meeting, and the Packers need a well-balanced offense to be effective.

Players to watch

Jordan Addison - Over 4.5 receptions (-114)

Addison has stepped up as an exceptional No. 2 receiver over his past six games. As a result, the Vikings' offense is far more explosive. Minnesota needs him to be involved to open up the rest of the passing game. He caught five or more passes in four of his past five contests.

Jordan Love - Over 32.5 passing attempts (+100)

With the expectation that the Vikings will shut down Jacobs and the rushing attack, Love will be asked to throw a lot. He hasn’t surpassed over 32.5 passing attempts in six straight games, but he attempted a whopping 54 passes the last time these two teams met. Opponents call pass plays against the Vikings at the highest rate in the league (64.71%), and Green Bay should follow suit.

Sunday Night Football

The Commanders (10-5) welcome the Falcons (8-7) to D.C. for a game that was flexed into the Sunday night slot. When the game was rescheduled, Kirk Cousins was under center for Atlanta. But now, Michael Penix Jr. will look to earn a road win over fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite.

Case for the Falcons

• The Falcons are fighting for their playoff lives after overtaking the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. It’s unlikely they'll earn a wild-card spot, so the division title is their only route to the postseason.
• They beat the Giants 34-7 in Penix’s first start - a good confidence boost for the rookie ahead of a tough road game.

Case for the Commanders

• The Commanders are coming off of an incredible comeback victory over the Eagles, a game in which Daniels threw for five touchdowns and added 81 yards on the ground.
• Washington is eighth in DVOA while the Falcons are 20th. That’s a wide margin and one that would mean the Commanders would be favored by more than 2.5 points on a neutral field, which a spread of four points implies.

Key trends

• The Commanders are 9-5-1 ATS, while the Falcons are only 6-8-1.
• Washington is 6-2 ATS at home, the best record in the league.

Pick: Commanders -4

You have to believe this spread would be bigger had the Falcons not dismantled the Giants last week. Penix played fine, completing 18 of 27 passes while throwing one interception, but you can’t take much away from a game against an abysmal Giants team. The Commanders' defense isn’t one of the best in the league, but it’s far better than New York’s and will present a tougher challenge.

On the flip side, few defenses in the league can slow Daniels’ offense, and the Falcons are not one of them. Atlanta generates little pressure and has the fewest sacks in the league, so Daniels will have time in the pocket and the ability to extend plays with his legs.

Players to watch

Bijan Robinson - Over 18.5 rushing attempts (-130)

The Falcons' only hope lies in Robinson’s hands. They need him to carry the offense against the Commanders’ weak run defense. He's handled 22 or more carries in four straight games and exceeded 18.5 in seven of his last nine. Atlanta needs to give him over 18.5 if it has any hope of winning.

Terry McLaurin - Over 4.5 receptions (-145)

Daniels’ top option has secured five or more passes in 10 of 15 games this season and five of his past six. McLaurin has very little target competition and should see at least seven targets from Daniels, the amount he averaged over his past eight games. If he gets that many, five catches shouldn't be an issue.