Will Chiefs follow similar fate as past Super Bowl losers?

The Super Bowl hangover after a loss is real. Sometimes the misery hits early - like the 49ers' 2024 campaign that was doomed from the start. Sometimes it takes time - the 2023 Eagles started 10-1 before losing six of their final seven games.

The 2018 Patriots are the only Super Bowl loser in the last decade to return to - and win - the Big Game. Otherwise, things have been grim: The last 10 Super Bowl losers have won 3.4 fewer regular-season games the following season. Only one, the 2022 Bengals, had more victories in the ensuing campaign. Four of them, including the 49ers last season, missed the playoffs entirely. Just two made the conference championship the next season.

The Chiefs have been the preseason Super Bowl favorite in four of the last five seasons. This year, they have the fourth-best odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet, their lowest ranking on the oddsboard since 2018, Patrick Mahomes' first full season as a starter.

In Kansas City, a down season still means a trip to the AFC Championship Game - the Chiefs have gotten at least that far in each of the last seven years. They've made five Super Bowl appearances and won three titles during that span, too, but oddsmakers think things will change this year.

Super Bowl odds

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Recent history suggests Kansas City won't make it back to the Big Game, so the Ravens and Bills, two teams the Chiefs have dominated in the postseason, now hold shorter odds. Baltimore and Buffalo also have better rosters than the Chiefs, but that hasn't mattered in past seasons because of Mahomes' brilliance.

Andy Reid and Mahomes have dealt with a Super Bowl loss before, when the Buccaneers defeated them in 2020. But that group didn't collapse the following season; instead, the Chiefs lost a thrilling AFC Championship Game to Cincinnati.

The difference between the first and second defeat is that in the latter, Mahomes' squad didn't just lose last year's Big Game. The Chiefs were thoroughly dominated, evidenced by the Eagles' 34-0 lead in the third quarter.

Despite Mahomes' greatness, Kansas City's offense has regressed over the last two years. It never averaged below 28 points per game during Mahomes' first five seasons as a starter, but it hasn't eclipsed 23 points per contest in the last two campaigns.

That dip can be attributed to many factors. First is the shaky offensive line that didn't look like it belonged on the same field as the Eagles' defensive line in the Super Bowl, having dealt with unresolved left tackle issues for the entire season. The Chiefs have since signed Jaylon Moore in free agency and drafted Josh Simmons with a first-round pick, so their offensive line should hold up better, but concerns persist.

Another issue is Mahomes' weapons, especially as Travis Kelce's production has swiftly declined. Rashee Rice returned from injury, but he's facing a suspension from the NFL as he deals with legal troubles. So Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown will be Mahomes' top targets until Rice returns.

Kansas City's defense has been its best unit over the last two seasons, which it'll need to carry it through the regular season again. The team is a -120 favorite to win the division, but the Chargers (+300) and Broncos (+325) aren't far behind, while the Raiders sit at +1500.

Even with a strong defense, the Chiefs are part of a deep AFC with other MVP-level quarterbacks desperate to dethrone Mahomes, so it's hard to expect them to return to the Big Game.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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