TNF bets: Lamar finally returns to face Dolphins in prime time
The Ravens are heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins for Thursday Night Football. Lamar Jackson will make his return from a four-game absence, a week after Baltimore's practice report led everyone to believe he would be ready for Week 8. The Ravens are a heavy favorite with their star back under center.
We have you covered with our pick against the spread, player props, and touchdown scorers for Thursday.
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π Pick: Ravens (-8.5)
The Ravens earned a huge win over the Bears last week with Tyler Huntley starting, keeping their season alive. They're still a desperate group at 2-5, but the uphill battle to collect a playoff spot becomes less daunting with Jackson in the lineup.
Baltimore's Week 7 bye came at a great time. After losing multiple defensive starters to injury early in the year, the unit is much healthier now. It held Chicago to 16 points, the team's second straight game conceding 17 points or fewer and a drastic improvement from the 44 points allowed to the Texans in Week 5.
Miami, meanwhile, put up 34 points on the Falcons last week, but I'll choose to ignore that because of Atlanta's putrid effort. The Dolphins are still a mess, having given up at least 27 points in each of its three prior contests. They're a true two-win team, unlike the Ravens.
The Dolphins allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game, which is a recipe for disaster when facing Jackson and Derrick Henry. Backed by an improving defense, Jackson and Co. can cover 7.5 points against a bad team on a short week.
π Bet: Over 89.5 rushing yards
The Dolphins have conceded monster games on the ground to Kimani Vidal, Rico Dowdle, and James Cook this season; two of those players are nowhere near as explosive as Henry, who went for 169 rushing yards in the season-opening loss to the Bills and, more recently, 122 yards against the Rams (without Jackson). The team will lean heavily on the five-time Pro Bowler to ease its quarterback back into action.
π Bet: Over 19.5 rushing attempts
The same logic from above applies to Henry's rushing attempts. He's had at least 20 carries in back-to-back games and should see another significant workload in Miami. The Ravens could lead for most (or all) of this contest, and there's no better player in the league to control the clock with.
π Bet: Over 3.5 receptions
Malik Washington has caught at least four passes in four straight games, all since Tyreek Hill went down with an ACL injury. He also had five or more targets in each outing. Washington may not pile up yardage, considering most of his catches come near the line of scrimmage, but I'll happily take four screen passes for zero yards to win this bet.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+155)
These are great odds for a top receiver against the Ravens' secondary. With Hill sidelined, Tua Tagovailoa's go-to target is Jaylen Waddle, who's racked up 50 targets, 504 receiving yards, and four touchdowns this season. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most receptions and second-most scores to opposing wideouts.
π Bet: To score 2+ TDs (+225)
We hit on our Week 7 bet of Quinshon Judkins scoring two-plus touchdowns against the Dolphins' defense, so let's use that formula again. Opponents have to account for Lamar's legs, opening more holes for Henry, who scored two touchdowns last week. Miami has given up the fourth-most attempts and third-most yards to opposing running backs.
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