Fantasy: 5 potential busts to fade in 2025

More from this series:

• Breakouts to target
• Sleepers to steal (July 10)
• Players we love (July 12)

Missing on a premium pick in your fantasy draft can tank your entire season. These are the players we recommend avoiding this season.

Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️

Williams is an excellent running back. Nobody could reasonably argue otherwise after he ran for 1,144 yards with 15 total touchdowns in 2023 before then turning things up a notch with 1,299 rushing yards and 16 scores in 2024. But the risk involved in this pick, as is the case for so many other fantasy-related questions, isn't about talent.

The Rams once again added to the backfield in this year's draft, landing Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round. Scoff at the draft capital if you will, but it hasn't been difficult to gather that Sean McVay was head over heels for the Auburn product. Might he see Hunter's big-play ability as something of a missing piece for this run game?

Factor in that the Rams also have 2024 second-rounder Blake Corum in the mix, and it seems entirely possible that this backfield looks a lot different than the one-man show that produced 350 touches for Williams last year. He'll remain the lead guy going forward, but Hunter and Corum cutting into his workload might make it tough to see the return value you're expecting from a running back with a 26th overall ADP, according to FantasyPros.

Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️

Mixon had a productive first year in Houston. The former Bengals running back overcame an early ankle injury to post his fifth career 1,000-yard season, topping the century mark in seven different games. It was an incredible return on the Texans' investment after getting him from Cincinnati for a seventh-round pick.

It's possible that the soon-to-be 29-year-old has another RB2 season in the tank, but be careful with this one. Mixon's output was extremely inconsistent over the second half of the 2024 campaign, a stretch that included three games averaging less than 2 yards per carry. And before we put all the blame on the offensive line, consider the possibility that this year's unit, albeit with some different names after a busy offseason, could be every bit as bad.

And then there's the presence of Nick Chubb. I'm going to go out on a limb and wager a guess that the former Browns star wasn't going to sign anywhere as a designated backup. He expects to play. Mixon will remain the starter, but it would be a surprise if Houston's newest addition didn't have some sort of meaningful role. Returning value on a fourth-round ADP might be difficult without the kind of volume Mixon was getting last year.

Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️

I'll admit: this one could end up looking pretty silly. Hill has been one of the league's most unstoppable players for the majority of his pro career. While his production dipped in 2024, he was also playing through a wrist injury that required surgery at season's end.

It's entirely possible that a healthy Hill immediately recaptures his previous level of play and actually outperforms his third-round ADP. It'll certainly be tempting to scoop him up so much later than was possible at any point over the last few years. I'm probably going to let someone else be the one to take that gamble, though.

Even with the wrist injury, the timing of the down year raises too many alarm bells to be overly confident about his prospects in his age-31 season. It was only a matter of time before he lost a step. As a player who has won with an unparalleled combination of speed and quickness, it was always hard to imagine Hill's game aging particularly gracefully. Last year's drop-off may only be the start of the cliff.

Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️

You're going to hear a lot about Harrison as a breakout candidate, and it makes plenty of sense. It's only fair to assume that a player that many hailed as a generational prospect would take a significant step forward after a largely frustrating rookie year. Maybe that's exactly what happens.

Personally, if we're talking about fantasy investments, I'd like to see it first. Harrison didn't separate nearly as well as expected as a rookie, and a sub-par contested catch rate - 42.1%, according to PFF - did little to compensate. In general, it was clear that he and Kyler Murray simply couldn't get on the same page. Are we sure that's something that will naturally get smoothed out with reps, and not actually a matter of clashing play styles?

Harrison's early fourth-round ADP may not seem like an unreasonable price tag, given the potential, but it's still more than I'm willing to pay on account of what we saw last season. Rashee Rice going a few picks later, despite a far better fit with the best QB on the planet, drives this one home for me. I'd be careful about overpaying here.

Bust risk: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️

Kelce now being drafted as the No. 5 tight end, according to FantasyPros ADP, might feel like a fair acknowledgement of the downward trend in his production. And it's not like you're passing up elite talents to get him in the seventh round of your drafts. But the market correction has still been a little slow for my liking.

While the Chiefs legend has mastered the art of just leaving enough gas in the tank for some more postseason magic, the regular-season output that matters to fantasy managers is bottoming out in a hurry. Kelce remained a target machine in 2024, but he did staggeringly little with the opportunity. His 823 yards represents the lowest total from any tight end to receive 130-plus targets since at least 1992.

Kelce remained a high-volume player, in part, because of a lack of options elsewhere in the Chiefs receiving corps. But with Xavier Worthy heading into Year 2, and a healthy Rashee Rice likely becoming the go-to target short and over the middle, Kelce's opportunities could drop substantially this year. It's tough to wrap your mind around it, but Kelce is probably still overpriced. Reaching to fill your tight end spot with a familiar name, rather than waiting another three-plus rounds to take an ascending tight end like Tucker Kraft, could prove costly.

More from this series:

• Breakouts to target
• Sleepers to steal (July 10)
• Players we love (July 12)

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