How the confident and self-motivated Capitals are proving everyone wrong
Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery could've easily played the "us against the world" card to begin the season, if he wanted to. Washington checked all the boxes of a team that qualified for the commonly used motivational tactic.
The majority of preseason prognosticators had the Caps missing the playoffs in 2024-25, with theScore Bet and ESPN Bet giving them +7500 odds to win the Stanley Cup entering the campaign. Only seven teams - Calgary, Utah, Chicago, Montreal, Anaheim, Columbus, and San Jose - were viewed as bigger long shots.
Yet here are the Caps: 19-6-2 and tied for first place in the NHL as of Monday.
"Honestly, I didn't look at any of the predictions. I don't think anybody in here paid attention to any of that," veteran forward Nic Dowd told theScore ahead of Friday's 3-1 win over the Maple Leafs. "It's something for the media to circle in on. I think we've just been keeping our heads down, playing good hockey."
There are several factors driving the red-hot Capitals, who are an impressive 6-2-1 since captain and leading goal-scorer Alex Ovechkin suffered a fractured fibula in November. Among them are a series of savvy offseason moves made by the front office, led by president of hockey operations Brian MacLellan and general manager Chris Patrick. Management clearly wasn't satisfied after 2023-24, when Washington squeaked into the playoffs but was swept in Round 1.
The Capitals traded goaltender Darcy Kuemper to the Kings for center Pierre-Luc Dubois in a blockbuster deal, filling a gaping hole at center left by Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov. They also acquired Andrew Mangiapane for a second-round pick, traded Beck Malenstyn for a second-rounder, and landed netminder Logan Thompson from the Golden Knights for a pair of third-rounders. On defense, Washington traded Nick Jensen and a third-rounder for Jakob Chychrun, and signed Matt Roy. Brandon Duhaime, Taylor Raddysh, and Jakub Vrana were added up front in depth roles.
Not every addition has been a grand slam, but the newcomers are all playing their part. Chychrun's notably tied for second among NHL defensemen in goals (eight) despite missing five games due to injury. Thompson ranks in the top 10 among qualified NHL goalies in both save percentage (.913) and goals saved above expected (8.77). He and Charlie Lindgren are the most cost-effective goalie duo in the league, making only a combined $1.86 million.
While Mangiapane hasn't lit up the score sheet (six goals, four assists), he's been an effective third-line checker. His 2.6 defensive goals above replacement ranks 13th among NHL forwards.
"I know from the guys that were here last year, they probably weren't happy with losing in the first round. I'm sure that might've been a (motivational) factor for them," Mangiapane said. "But a lot of new guys coming in wanted to show the organization and the team what they have and what type of players they are and why they acquired them. I think a mixture of all of those is leading to our success."
The Capitals are also benefitting from major internal growth. Several players are enjoying breakout years, including Dylan Strome (106-point pace) and Connor McMichael (46-goal pace). Carbery said both have taken developmental "leaps and bounds" this season.
Strome's career arc is fascinating. He was drafted third overall in 2015 by the Coyotes but never found his way in Arizona. He broke out with the Blackhawks after a 2018 trade, but Chicago mysteriously non-tendered him in 2022, allowing him to leave in free agency for nothing. Now 27, Strome's firmly in his prime and providing Washington outstanding value at $5 million per season through 2028.
"He's really trying to take that next step to be in the conversation with other first-line centers in the NHL. The Auston Mathews', the Brayden Points of the world," Carbery said. "He's gotten off to a tremendous start, from where he's come from the start of his career and just sort of chipping away and finding a home in Washington and now elevating his game to another level this season. He's been tremendous."
McMichael, 23, is a homegrown talent. The Capitals picked him 25th overall in 2019, and his 42 career goals rank ninth among players from his draft class, despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. He spent most of last season at center but found a home on the wing this year.
"He's just such an ultra-confident player (who) is going to find a way. He's a guy you bet on that's going to get the most out of his career," said Carbery, who coached McMichael in 2021 with the AHL's Hershey Bears. "A lot of people doubted whether he could become a scorer and a point producer in the NHL. They (labeled him a) 'middle-six, third-line center.' And he scoffed at that. 'Why can't I score in the NHL? Why can't I produce?'"
McMichael worked "tirelessly" on his shot in the summer, Carbery added.
Not all breakouts can be measured, though. Yes, Tom Wilson's on pace for a career-high 33 goals, but he's also taken on greater leadership responsibilities this season without Backstrom and T.J. Oshie in the fold. Vrana, who began his career in D.C., was part of Washington's 2018 Stanley Cup-winning squad, and who's now back with the club after spending the last few years in Detroit and St. Louis, sees it firsthand.
"Especially (Wilson)," Vrana said when asked about players who've grown as leaders between his two stints with the team. "I saw (Wilson) his first couple years when I got in the league. He's taken a huge step moving forward, he's been here for many years, and he's not just a leader in the locker room, he proves it on the ice as well."
Vrana said the same about veteran defenseman John Carlson, as well.
Whether the Capitals can sustain their hot start - and perhaps go on a run like they did in 2018 - remains to be seen. There's been a fraction of good fortune involved, as they lead the league with a 13.79% shooting percentage. Regression to some degree is possible (the Lightning led the league at 11.96% last season).
One thing's clear, though: the Capitals don't need any bulletin board material as motivation. Immense confidence in each other means there's no need to embrace an underdog mentality, either. They believe they're right where they belong: among the NHL's elite.
"It's just a really hungry, self-motivated team," Carbery said.
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)