Predicting where the most intriguing NHL UFAs land

With free agency opening Tuesday, we take out our crystal ball and predict where the most notable pending unrestricted free agents end up. The order of each player's appearance on the list is based on their predicted average annual value.

Spoiler alert: We correctly predicted landing spots for six of 12 players in this exercise a year ago, and got eerily close on some contract figures. So avoid this article if you want to be shocked come July 1.

Editor's note: This feature was published Monday morning before a flurry of moves in the afternoon.

Mitch Marner

Age: 28
Position: RW
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Golden Knights for 8 years, $13M AAV

Let's start with the low-hanging fruit. The Maple Leafs and Golden Knights are reportedly discussing a sign-and-trade for Marner, and it's fair to assume a deal will get done. Pulling off the sign-and-trade before July 1 would allow Vegas to sign Marner for eight years rather than seven. It's possible another team would be willing to give Marner a higher AAV, but joining a legitimate Cup contender in a state like Nevada with no income tax would be appealing and worth taking a bit less. The Golden Knights don't currently have the cap space to make this work, but there's smoke about Alex Pietrangelo landing on LTIR.

Aaron Ekblad

Age: 29
Position: RD
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Ducks for 7 years, $9.5M AAV

Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek has tried to target a specific type of right-shot defenseman to complement his young lefties: big, mean, physical veterans. But those right-shot blue-liners - Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas - are both set to enter the final year of their contracts. Enter Ekblad, who boasts those same qualities but is far superior offensively. He could form a legitimate No. 1 pair with emerging star Jackson LaCombe, and his presence would shift Trouba and Gudas into more appropriate roles on the second and third pairs. The Ducks have money to burn and are eager to snap their seven-year playoff drought after a 21-point improvement last season.

Vladislav Gavrikov

Age: 29
Position: LD/RD
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Rangers for 7 years, $8.5M AAV

The Rangers wouldn't be shopping K'Andre Miller without a plan to replace him. Gavrikov, while older, would represent a major upgrade in the short term. He's coming off the best season of his career, in which he was arguably the top shutdown defensemen in the NHL. He could be the ultimate complement to Adam Fox while the Rangers are in win-now mode. The only obstacle? This move would put New York tight against the cap, and the team needs to factor in a new contract for Will Cuylle and needs in the bottom-six forward group.

Nikolaj Ehlers

Age: 29
Position: LW/RW
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Hurricanes for 7 years, $8M AAV

The Hurricanes have more cap space than any established contender this offseason, and while GM Eric Tulsky likely won't spend it recklessly, it's easy to imagine why he'd be intrigued by Ehlers. The speedy winger could be a great fit under coach Rod Brind'Amour's up-tempo system. A lack of offense has been Carolina's undoing in the playoffs in recent years, and while Ehlers doesn't boast a sterling postseason resume, he did pot five goals in eight playoff games this spring.

Brock Boeser

Age: 28
Position: RW
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Wild for 7 years, $8M AAV

There have long been rumors of Boeser, a Minnesota native, going to play for his hometown team. The timing seems to be perfect, too - the Wild can finally be players in free agency with the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts becoming far more manageable this summer. Minnesota needs another legitimate top-six winger, and Boeser is just one year removed from potting a career-high 40 goals.

Brad Marchand

Age: 37
Position: LW/RW
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Maple Leafs for 4 years, $8M AAV

The Maple Leafs are after proven playoff performers, so it would be fitting to target the guy that's tormented them for over a decade. Marchand became the first player in NHL history to own a 5-0 record in winner-take-all playoff games against a single team when the Panthers eliminated the Maple Leafs in Round 2 this year. While Marchand is a noted troll, he did say he grew up a Leafs fan and even hinted at a move to Toronto. He may rather stay in Florida, but this type of lucrative payday may be too good to pass up.

Ivan Provorov

Age: 28
Position: LD/RD
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Kings for 7 years, $7.5M AAV

If the Kings lose Gavrikov, it's easy to envision them pivoting to Provorov. A true workhorse, Provorov has missed just three games in his nine-year career while averaging 23:46 per contest. The Blue Jackets likely want to keep Provorov after holding on to him at the deadline, but they may be hesitant to hand out a contract of this length while they're still a young team on the rise. The Kings, who are trying to win while Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty are still around, likely won't share that same hesitation under a veteran GM in Ken Holland.

Dmitry Orlov

Age: 33
Position: LD/RD
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Blue Jackets for 2 years, $7M AAV

The Blue Jackets may not be crazy about a seven-year deal for Provorov, but a two-year pact for Orlov would carry far less risk, even if he's slightly on the decline. He's still a serviceable second-pairing defenseman. This contract would perfectly coincide with the two years remaining on Denton Mateychuk's entry-level deal. Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell notably signed Orlov to his last contract while he was with the Hurricanes.

Mikael Granlund

Age: 33
Position: C/LW/RW
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Predators for 3 years, $6M AAV

Granlund is best suited on the wing at this point in his career, but a center-needy team like the Predators would likely appreciate his positional versatility. Granlund notably spent parts of five seasons in Nashville, notching a career-high 53 assists in 2021-22.

Brent Burns

Age: 40
Position: RD
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Sharks for 1 year, $6M

Does Burns want to spend his swan song chasing that elusive Stanley Cup ring? Or would he rather head back to where he spent 11 of his 21 NHL seasons? It's hard to know where his priorities lie, but the Sharks would likely welcome him back with open arms. They desperately need help on the blue line, and a high-character veteran like Burns could serve as a great role model for the young defensemen coming through their system.

Patrick Kane

Age: 36
Position: RW
Prediction 🔮: Re-signs with Red Wings for 2 years, $5.5M AAV

Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman said Saturday he expects to get a deal done with Kane. Executives don't typically display that sort of confidence without knowing there's a high likelihood it'll come true. The Red Wings have money to spend, and Kane was productive with 59 points a year ago.

Jake Allen

Age: 34
Position: G
Prediction 🔮: Signs with Oilers for 2 years, $4M AAV

Allen should be highly coveted in a weak UFA goalie class. He's not the high-end starter the Oilers need, but he's still a serviceable tandem option. Edmonton wants Stuart Skinner to be "the guy," but Allen would be a nice security blanket and a major upgrade over Calvin Pickard if things go south with Skinner in the playoffs once again.