Looking ahead to the 2021 Hall of Fame ballot
It's been less than 24 hours since the National Baseball Hall of Fame welcomed two new members, but that doesn't mean it's too early to look ahead to January 2021.
Next year's class promises intrigue - both because of who's poised to go in and the lack of impact first-time candidates coming onto the ballot.
Here's a very early look at what the 2021 Hall of Fame ballot might look like and who could be enshrined.
On the doorstep
Player | Pos. | Year on ballot | 2020 Total (+/-) |
---|---|---|---|
Curt Schilling | SP | 9th | 70.0% (+9.1%) |
It sure looks as though Curt Schilling will lead the 2021 class. Schilling, who crossed the 70% mark Tuesday, continues to be mired in controversy for his off-field comments, but it's clear that he's gained back whatever votes he lost a few years ago. He's going in.
Getting a (minor) bump
Player | Pos. | Year on ballot | 2020 Total (+/-) |
---|---|---|---|
Roger Clemens | SP | 9th | 61.0% (+1.5%) |
Barry Bonds | LF | 9th | 60.7% (+1.6%) |
For the first time in a good while, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have reason to hope. While they're still sitting in the 59-63% range, both crossed the 60% mark for the first time - a huge milestone, considering only Gil Hodges has failed to gain election - via any means, including committees - after crossing that threshold on the writers' ballot.
However, as The Athletic's Joe Posnanski points out, those two were the only returnees to receive fewer votes than they did in 2019 despite their percentages improving. Where they'll make those votes up isn't really clear, so fans in the Bay Area and New England shouldn't be booking those hotel rooms just yet.
Trying again
Player | Pos. | Year on ballot | 2020 Total (+/-) |
---|---|---|---|
Omar Vizquel | SS | 4th | 52.6% (+9.8%) |
Scott Rolen | 3B | 4th | 35.3% (+18.1%) |
Billy Wagner | RP | 6th | 31.7% (+15%) |
Gary Sheffield | RF | 7th | 30.5% (+16.9%) |
Todd Helton | 1B | 3rd | 29.2% (+12.7%) |
Manny Ramirez | LF | 4th | 28.2% (+5.4%) |
Jeff Kent | 2B | 8th | 27.5% (+9.4%) |
Andruw Jones | CF | 4th | 19.4% (+11.9%) |
Sammy Sosa | RF | 9th | 13.9% (+5.4%) |
Andy Pettitte | SP | 3rd | 11.3% (+1.4%) |
Bobby Abreu | RF | 2nd | 5.5% (-) |
Returning candidates will be all the rage next year, and 2021's wide-open ballot will do wonders for many of Tuesday's big jumpers. Omar Vizquel will be the biggest beneficiary and should continue his forward momentum. Billy Wagner, Scott Rolen, and Gary Sheffield, who enjoyed the largest jumps of the day outside of Larry Walker, are also poised for additional gains.
Not every returning candidate was so lucky on Tuesday. Although their percentages went up, the likes of PED-linked stars Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa, former MVP Jeff Kent, and longtime Yankees star Andy Pettitte saw their chances largely evaporate. Even if they earn a couple more votes due to the thin ballot next year, they're unlikely to gain any real traction.
Finally, Abreu is the only first-time candidate in 2020 who gets another shot, and he deserved that at a minimum. However, his low total in his first go-around - he survived by a single vote - doesn't bode well for his long-term outlook.
Notable 1st-timers
Player | Pos. | Years in MLB | JAWS | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|
Mark Buehrle | SP | 16 | 47.5 | 59.2 |
Tim Hudson | SP | 17 | 48.2 | 58.1 |
Torii Hunter | OF | 19 | 40.4 | 50.1 |
Aramis Ramirez | 3B | 18 | 31.0 | 32.6 |
Barry Zito | SP | 15 | 31.3 | 31.9 |
Writers haven't seen a list of first-time candidates this thin since 2012 when Bernie Williams was the only one to avoid being five-percented.
The five most notable first-timers listed enjoyed wonderful careers. Zito earned a Cy Young, Ramirez won a Hank Aaron Award, Hunter owns nine Gold Gloves in the outfield, Hudson saw great individual success on multiple playoff teams, and Buehrle is regarded as one of the premier workhorses of his era and is an all-time great defender at his position.
As great as they were, none stand much of a chance at induction. Hudson might be the only first-time candidate with a hope of surviving to 2022.
What this means is that the 2021 induction weekend is shaping up to be a celebration of returning candidates who have waited a long time; either that or the voters will splinter themselves among the controversial candidates and cause this century's second shutout (though this is highly unlikely).
One and done
These players logged the required 10 years of major-league service time and are therefore eligible, but not guaranteed, to appear on next year's ballot.
The players listed below likely wouldn't receive a single vote, let alone reach five percent. But that shouldn't be viewed as an insult. Making the ballot is a prestigious honor that these men should cherish while being proud of what they accomplished on the diamond.
Position players: Michael Cuddyer, Corey Hart, Adam LaRoche, Alex Rios, Skip Schumaker, Grady Sizemore, Nick Swisher, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino
Pitchers: Jeremy Affeldt, Grant Balfour, A.J. Burnett, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Harang, LaTroy Hawkins, Dan Haren, Jason Marquis, Rafael Soriano, C.J. Wilson