NBA Game 7 bets: Will home teams prevail?
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The best term in sports: Game 7. Luckily, we have two of them Sunday.
The Knicks-Pacers and Nuggets-Timberwolves will compete for a trip to the conference finals. Use whatever excuse you can find to spend Sunday in front of a TV. We've got you covered with four bets for two exciting series finales.
Nuggets team total: Over 101.5 points
If you think the Nuggets will emerge victorious in Game 7 in Denver - as I do - betting on their team total is safer than laying 5.5 points. The Nuggets are averaging 114.6 points in their three wins against the Wolves. They have a slightly better offensive rating at home than on the road.
Minnesota's defensive tenacity stifled the Nuggets' offense in Games 2 and 6. Denver looked sluggish and unmotivated in those two outings. Motivation won't be an issue for Game 7.
In Games 3, 4, and 5, the Nuggets navigated the Wolves' defense, limiting Rudy Gobert's impact as a rim-protector. Minnesota won't allow Nikola Jokic in single coverage again after he torched it for 40 points in Game 5. However, if Jamal Murray can score effectively, Denver should escape with a win.
Murray's inefficiencies have haunted the Nuggets. He'll be an X-factor in determining Denver's fate. Even if he's hobbled, Murray's battle-tested, and his playoff experience will help him overcome recent struggles.
Odds: -105
Karl-Anthony Towns: Under 19.5 points
Some players are trustworthy in a pressure-filled Game 7. While Towns has never played in a Game 7, he has a history of disappearing in the playoffs.
Players get tight in Game 7s with their seasons on the line, leading to missed shots and lower point totals. Towns hasn't reached 20 points in three of the last four games. He's averaging 18.4 points in 10 playoff games.
Odds: -110
Pacers @ Knicks (-2.5, O/U 208.5)
Toughness prevails in Game 7s. The Knicks are shorthanded but are more resilient and have more willpower than the Pacers, especially in a raucous atmosphere like Madison Square Garden.
This series comes down to the rebounding battle. The Knicks are 7-0 when they outrebound their opponent this postseason. They're 0-5 when they don't. When New York strays from its rebounding identity, it gets into trouble.
Here's the good news for the Knicks: They have a 56% rebounding rate at home compared to just 48.9% on the road. The Pacers are the worst road rebounding team among active playoff squads. It's fair to expect the Knicks to control the glass.
There's a reason the home team has won every matchup. Both teams - and their stars - perform significantly better at home than on the road. Advantage New York.
Josh Hart's status is a concern for New York. He left Game 6 early with an abdominal injury. Based on the teams' market ratings, this line assumes Hart will play. He's the Knicks' second-most important player. If he's ruled out, the line will shift in the Pacers' favor. Wait until Hart's status is official before riding with the Knicks to close the series at home.
Pick: Knicks -2.5
Jalen Brunson: Over 35.5 points
Brunson struggled in the first half, shot 11-of-26 from the field, and only played 38 minutes in Game 6. He still finished with 31 points.
He's eclipsed 38 points in six of the seven games he played at least 40 minutes this postseason. There's no doubt Brunson will play 40-plus minutes in Game 7.
There are few players I trust in a big moment as much as the even-keeled Brunson, who must attempt a plethora of shots for his team's offense to survive.
Odds: +100
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.