NBA Bet or Bail: Lakers downfall, Magic's rise
Every week, Bet or Bail will explore players, teams, storylines, and markets throughout the NBA landscape.
Is it time to bail on LeBron and the Lakers?
Lakers head coach JJ Redick has continuously criticized his team's poor effort and focus, but the message isn't resonating. Los Angeles has lost six of its last eight games, four of which have been by more than 20 points. The Lakers have the NBA's fourth-worst defense and are the sixth-worst rebounding team.
Their woes start with LeBron James. Father Time has lost many battles to its toughest competitor, but it may finally be winning the war. James, who turns 40 later in December, is averaging his fewest points since his rookie season and is shooting 49.1% from the field, his worst mark in a decade.
Despite his greatness and remarkable health over his 21-year career, it's unrealistic to expect James to produce at an All-NBA level. The Lakers' poor roster construction means James must play like a superstar, especially as co-star Anthony Davis snaps in and out of an MVP level depending on the game. However, James isn't one of the league's best players anymore.
Defensively, the four-time MVP shows little effort and points at his teammates more than he slides over to help or closes out shooters himself. James understandably is trying to conserve his energy at his advanced age, but the six-time All-Defensive team selection is part of the reason offenses feast on the Lakers.
The team's nonexistent perimeter resistance isn't all James' fault, but Los Angeles' defensive rating is significantly better with James off the court. In fact, the Lakers outscore opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions when James is on the bench, but opponents outscore them by 9.2 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor. This is the first season of James' Hall of Fame career where his team has a worse net rating with him playing.
The Lakers got off to a 10-4 start this season because of a flourishing offense that relied on Davis as a hub. Los Angeles' defensive struggles go back to the opener, but it posted a top-10 offense early on.
The offense ran through Davis as Redick implored him to be an aggressive attacker. James was often relegated to an off-ball role to preserve his energy and make Davis the focal point.
Davis averaged over five drives per game and had a 31.2 usage rate through the first 14 games, scoring 31 points per game. James' usage rate was 26.7 during LA's hot start.
Over the last five games, Davis' drives per game dipped to 3.2 and usage rate to 23.5, while James' usage rate skyrocketed to 33. Davis averaged 17.4 points during that stretch.
The Lakers are worse when James has more responsibility. He's still capable of offensive explosions, but he's scored fewer than 20 points in five of his last seven games and has made just one of his last 23 3-point attempts. The Lakers have the league's fifth-worst offense over the past 10 contests.
They have problems beyond their two stars, which likely can only be resolved with a trade. The skies in Los Angeles won't brighten until Davis regains his early-season form and consistently shows up as the Lakers' best player.
The purple and gold have covered the spread in just one of their last 10 games. They're currently the 9-seed at 12-10 and are -115 to make the playoffs. They're +2800 to win the NBA Finals and +1200 to win a deep West on theScore Bet and ESPN Bet.
Forget a championship, Los Angeles is in jeopardy of missing the playoffs without an in-season move.
Wagner has turned the Magic into contenders
After the Magic got off to a 3-1 start and Paolo Banchero emerged as an MVP candidate, the third-year star suffered an oblique injury. Banchero's diagnosis meant he'd be sidelined for at least four-to-six weeks. The Magic were unsure how to survive his early-season absence and lost their first four games without their All-Star.
But the Magic are now thriving, winning 13 of their last 15 games and sitting as the 3-seed in the East thanks to their tenacious defense and remarkable performances from fourth-year star Franz Wagner.
Many skeptics emerged after the Magic gave Wagner a five-year extension last offseason. He had shown minimal improvement from Year 2 to 3 and shot just 28% from deep. But Orlando trusted Wagner, and it's paid off. He's averaging a career-high 24.2 points, 5.7 assists, and 5.6 rebounds. Without Banchero, the German forward has more time on the ball and can showcase his playmaking instincts.
Wagner is the favorite to win the Most Improved Player award (+125). He was +3000 before the season and didn't crack the top 10.
Most impressively, Wagner hasn't sacrificed efficiency for volume. His 3-point percentage has improved, although still isn't great.
The question remains whether Wagner can sustain this production when Banchero returns. Banchero and Wagner could become one of the NBA's best young duos if they can take turns as scoring ball-handlers and coexist similarly to Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. With the leap Wagner and Banchero have made, Orlando's floor is elevated, and its ceiling is a championship run.
Like last season, when the Magic made the playoffs for the first time in four years, the NBA's third-best defense has carried them. Jalen Suggs and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope suffocate guards as all five defenders' connectivity and toughness make it challenging for opposing offenses. The Magic's deep bench includes a versatile cast of defenders who can switch on the perimeter and protect the rim, and they have great defensive instincts. The team forces turnovers at the NBA's third-highest rate.
Orlando was +8000 to win the Finals before the season but has cut that in half to +4000. The Magic have the fifth-best odds to win the East (+1500). That number will only shrink as Banchero nears a return.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.