No lottery luck for the Raptors, so what now?

The Toronto Raptors can console themselves with any number of facts after landing the ninth overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft.

For one, the lottery odds that came with the seventh-worst record always meant they were more likely to land somewhere between seventh and 10th (68.01%) than they were to jump into the draft's top-four (31.96%). The ninth pick was their third-most likely landing spot after eighth and seventh, respectively.

Furthermore, with three previous opportunities to select ninth overall, the franchise drafted Hall of Famer Tracy McGrady, six-time All-Star (and future Hall of Famer) DeMar DeRozan, and current starting center Jakob Poeltl.

That's all fine and true, but it's no comfort on this night. There's no sugarcoating the fact the lottery was a total gut-punch.

There's no one to blame. Toronto's lack of lottery luck had nothing to do with a half-measured tank or the fact the rebuilding Raptors won too often. The Dallas Mavericks won nine more games than the Raptors and won a play-in contest before winning the lottery despite only a 1.8% chance to do so (Dallas also won a coin toss with Chicago to earn an extra 0.1% worth of lottery odds after the two teams finished tied in the standings).

It's yet another reminder that, while the league's worst teams are rewarded with the best odds, it's still a lottery at the end of the day. The fate of multibillion-dollar franchises hinge on the whims of pingpong balls bouncing around inside a plastic bubble. The last-place team has gone 0-for-7 since the NBA flattened its lottery odds in 2019, with 2025 marking the third consecutive year the league's worst team fell a maximum of four spots (and will pick fifth).

Let that be a warning to teams that are already looking past the 2025-26 campaign while drooling over another stacked draft class in 2026. I'd say the sting of Monday's proceedings might inform how the Raptors approach next season, but the truth is they never appeared to have the stomach for a multi-year tank, anyway.

Though the Raptors went out of their way to label the 2024-25 campaign Year 1 of a rebuild, they also accelerated that rebuild when they traded for (and extended) Brandon Ingram. The move was surprising, but defensible from the standpoint that Toronto isn't in a position to thumb its nose when star talent becomes available. Still, some lottery luck - specifically a top-two pick such as Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper - would've helped complete the picture and spring-boarded the team back to relevance.

The Raptors must now confront the fact this year's draft is unlikely to deliver a franchise-changing talent after months of clinging to the hope it was their best chance to find one. So, what now?

The safest option would be to simply run it back, allowing Scottie Barnes, Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and an impressive collection of solid-yet-unspectacular youngsters to prove what they can (or can't) be together. This conservative approach would see the Raptors add the ninth pick to that unproven core, with options in that range likely to include South Carolina forward Collin Murray-Boyles, Illinois guard Kasparas Jakucionis, and Maryland center Derik Queen, among others.

Keeping the band together could pay immediate dividends. Toronto's Barnes-led defense was genuinely elite for half a season, and Ingram's shot-making, secondary playmaking, and foul-drawing should greatly improve what was a woeful half-court offense. The playoffs are well within reach if the Raptors stay healthy. Detroit's stunning rise from worst to sixth serves as a reminder of the opportunities the Eastern Conference provides.

However, for a team already butting up against the luxury tax, the path from postseason breakthrough to legitimate contention is murky. With no Flagg- or Harper-level prospect to pair beside Barnes, the Raptors' short-term risk tolerance might have just shot up.

The East already looked wide open before Jayson Tatum crumpled to the court in New York. Everyone up to, and perhaps even including Barnes, should be on the table if it gets Toronto in the mix for veteran superstars who could shake free - like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Devin Booker (Kevin Durant is too old for Toronto to abandon its rebuild for him). The Raptors also control all of their first-round picks.

They have options. The only thing we learned Monday is that Cooper Flagg - and salvation via the draft - is no longer one of them. For now, at least, that's a bummer.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's senior Raptors and NBA reporter.