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NFL futures: Biggest odds shifts in MVP, OPOY markets after 1 game

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While one game in the NFL may not seem like much, it's nearly 6% of the season. That's the equivalent of almost five regular-season NBA games or 10 MLB contests.

It's easy to overreact to one game, but it's warranted sometimes, especially in the betting markets. Injuries or unexpected role changes can drastically shift potential outcomes and future player performances.

After only one week of the campaign, let's look at some of the biggest moves in two key futures markets.

MVP

Player Current Odds Preseason Odds
Patrick Mahomes +375 +475
Josh Allen +550 +1000
C.J. Stroud +850 +850
Jalen Hurts +1100 +1300
Brock Purdy +1600 +1600
Joe Burrow +1600 +900
Lamar Jackson +1600 +1600
Dak Prescott +1800 +2000
Jared Goff +1800 +2200
Tua Tagovailoa +1800 +2500
Aaron Rodgers +2200 +2000
Anthony Richardson +3500 +3000
Matthew Stafford +3500 +3000
Justin Herbert +4000 +2500
Trevor Lawrence +4000 +3000

Josh Allen was the top mover up the MVP oddsboard, vaulting from +1000 to +550 and becoming the second favorite behind Patrick Mahomes. Allen threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another pair of scores in the Bills' 34-28 victory over the Cardinals. The odds shift for Allen represents an implied probability increase from 9.1% to 15.4%.

Joe Burrow's odds took the biggest hit after a tough opening-week loss to the Patriots. Ja'Marr Chase skipping training camp due to a contract dispute and Tee Higgins unexpectedly missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury didn't help Burrow's chances Sunday. The Bengals are notoriously slow starters, so perhaps there's value in backing Burrow in hopes Cinncinati turns it around.

There was minimal movement elsewhere aside from Justin Herbert, who lengthened to +4000 after it became obvious Jim Harbaugh brought a run-first scheme to the Chargers offense. Herbert attempted only 26 passes, the third-lowest total of his career.

Offensive Player of the Year

Player Current Odds Preseason Odds
Tyreek Hill +500 +700
Saquon Barkley +800 +1500
Christian McCaffrey +1000 +850
Justin Jefferson +1200 +1200
CeeDee Lamb +1400 +1000
Bijan Robinson +1500 +1600
Ja'Marr Chase +1600 +1000
Breece Hall +1800 +1600
A.J. Brown +2000 +3000
Amon-Ra St. Brown +2000 +1800
Cooper Kupp +2000 +6000
Garrett Wilson +2000 +2500
Josh Allen +2500 +4000
Jahmyr Gibbs +3000 +3000
Jonathan Taylor +3000 +3000

Favorite Tyreek Hill's odds shortened slightly atop the OPOY oddsboard, but Cooper Kupp made the biggest move.

The Rams wideout hauled in 14 of his whopping 21 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. It was a vintage Kupp performance, the type of game that led him to the OPOY award in 2021.

Kupp should continue to see a heavy workload with Puka Nacua suffering a knee ailment and hitting the injury report, forcing him to miss at least four games. Kupp's odds could be cut in half after Week 2 if he replicates his Week 1 stat line.

Saquon Barkley also shot up the oddsboard after his three-touchdown debut with the Eagles. He appears to be heavily involved in Philadelphia's potent offense and should be in the mix to lead the NFL in touchdowns.

Christian McCaffrey's odds lengthened a bit after the 49ers made him a late inactive ahead of Monday night's game against the Jets. He could also reportedly sit out Week 2.

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