Counterpoint: Saquon's dominance disproves narratives about RB value
It's time to settle the running backs debate once and for all.
Our own Scott Stinson argued over the weekend that Saquon Barkley's monster production in Philadelphia should have limited impact on how we see players at the position. Stinson makes a strong case, and one that'll be supported by much of the football community. I'm here to argue the opposite.
Nobody denies scheme and supporting cast provide a necessary baseline for run-game success. That's never going to change. But this season is proving that true difference-makers can still maximize those factors in pushing an offense over the top. The value of a star running back couldn't be more clear.
Take the Eagles, for example. Barkley hasn't put himself on pace to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record by merely having a few holes opened up for him. Philly's offensive foundation is more potent than anything he had with the Giants, to be sure, but Barkley's ability to create extra yards with vision, burst, and elusiveness is making the Eagles a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
An ever-evolving advanced data set even gives us the numbers to back it up: Barkley currently leads the league with 452 rushing yards over expected, adding nearly two yards per carry for Phily's offense, according to Next Gen Stats.
Josh Jacobs, the other star runner who landed a big-money deal to join a new team this offseason, is elevating an excellent run game in Green Bay. He forced a league-best 15 missed tackles in a Week 12 win over the 49ers, and his nine games of 50-plus yards after contact currently ranks tied for second.
The Ravens signing Derrick Henry isn't quite the same case of a bold organization being vindicated, as he settled for a two-year, $16-million contract in free agency. But his continued dominance after joining Baltimore should leave numerous teams - hello, Cowboys - embarrassed over their unwillingness to pay up.
Arguments in favor of careful spending at running back would be logical if the market was exploding like it is at other positions. Multiple guaranteed years of receiver-type money would be a risky proposition for high-volume players who don't typically have long careers. But that's simply not what's happening in today's NFL.
The running back market has stagnated and overcorrected so much since the infamous Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell deals that proven game-changers like Barkley and Jacobs can be signed for under $13 million per year - less than 5% of the 2024 salary cap.
A quick look at other names pulling in that kind of money this year paints the picture of a new market inefficiency:
Go ahead and pinch pennies if replacement-level production is all you want out of your ball carriers. It's certainly easy enough to find running backs who can get production the system provides.
But the only teams left looking silly this year are the ones who didn't bother to keep their superstars from walking out the door. The Giants, Raiders, and Titans are each unsurprisingly posting negative team rush yards over expected.
The Eagles, Packers, and Ravens - the three league leaders in that category - understood that true difference-makers at the position raise the offense's ceiling. It's no coincidence they all enter the stretch run with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Pay good players. It doesn't need to be any more complicated than that.