NFL betting preview: Will Chiefs' luck run out vs. Chargers?

How is it already Week 14?

Six teams are on bye (raise your hand if you are furious about this while battling for a playoff spot in your fantasy football league), creating a condensed lineup of games. Let's dive into the five most interesting ones.

Jump to: GB @ DET | ATL @ MIN | SEA @ ARI | BUF @ LAR | LAC @ KC

Thursday Night Football

An NFC North clash opens the week with the Super Bowl favorite (+250 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet) Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers. These divisional foes battled it out in Week 12 when the Lions won by 10 points at Lambeau Field.

Case for the Lions

• Five weeks ago, the Lions closed as 2.5-point favorites on the road and are now being asked to cover an additional half-point at home.
• They are winners of 10 straight while averaging 35.2 points per game at home.

Case for the Packers

• Divisional games can often be tight, especially in the teams' second meeting of the season.
• The Packers need to win this game more than the Lions.

Key trends

• The Lions are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) and 8-3 as favorites this season, continuing to cover spreads at the highest rate in the NFL over the past five seasons.
• Green Bay is 6-6 ATS and 2-2 on the road.

Pick: Lions -3

Based on the closing spread from their first meeting, you could have expected the Lions to be favored by five points in this matchup. So laying just three points with the Lions at home feels like great value. And it's not like you're getting value on a below-average club: Detroit is arguably the best team in the league, the Super Bowl favorite, and has covered 69.7% of the time since Dan Campbell was hired in 2021.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota while his 6-6 Atlanta Falcons are tied for the NFC South lead. The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings safely hold a wild-card spot, but a win over Atlanta would help them keep pace with the Lions in the NFC North.

Case for the Falcons

• It's hard to make one given how Cousins played last week against a stout Chargers defense. He's thrown six interceptions in his last three games with no passing touchdowns. Perhaps this is a good buy-low spot on Cousins and the Falcons.

Case for the Vikings

• The Vikings' defense generates a ton of pressure (27% pressure rate) and has the fourth-most sacks in the league. It should be a very long day for the immobile Cousins.

Key trends

• The Vikings are 7-4-1 ATS this season while the Falcons are 5-7.
• Atlanta has failed to cover in three straight games. Minnesota has only covered twice in its five-game win streak.

Pick: Vikings -5

It's hard to ignore how poorly Cousins played against the Chargers last week. This video is all you need to see:

The Vikings are clearly the superior team on both sides of the ball. They shouldn't have any trouble scoring against the Falcons, who concede the 10th-most points in the league, while limiting Cousins' production. This spread should be closer to a touchdown.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET

Who could have predicted the San Francisco 49ers would be +1400 to win the NFC West at the beginning of December? Instead, the Seattle Seahawks (+140) and the Arizona Cardinals (+175) are the two favorites and face off in a huge divisional tilt Sunday.

Case for the Seahawks

• The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 16-6 at home two weeks ago. They closed as 1.5-point underdogs, which suggests they should be close to 1.5-point underdogs in this contest.

Case for the Cardinals

• Arizona is the seventh-best team in the league per DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) compared to the Seahawks at 18th.
• The Cardinals won their last two home games (against the Bears and Jets) by a combined 60-15 margin.

Key trends

• The Cardinals are 8-4 ATS overall, 4-2 at home, and have covered five of their last six.
• Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road but is 5-6-1 overall.
• The under has hit in four straight Cardinals games and five of the last six Seahawks games.

Pick: Cardinals -2.5

This game has the makings of being decided by a last-second field goal, so we'll take the Cardinals to cover and split the season series with the Seahawks. The numbers suggest Arizona is a much better team and should probably be favored by five points (much like the Vikings are over the Falcons).

After winning a snowy affair Sunday night, the Buffalo Bills head west to take on the Los Angeles Rams in the comfy confines of SoFi Stadium. Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East while the Rams are in a heated NFC West race at 6-6.

Case for the Bills

• The Bills are the third-best team in the league per DVOA and the co-favorites to win the AFC at +200 with the Chiefs. There's no debate the Bills are better than the Rams.

Case for the Rams

• The Bills' last two victories were in big spots over the Chiefs and 49ers. The team could take its foot off the gas in a cross-conference road game.
• The Rams have the firepower to keep up with any team in the league. It will come down to their defense's ability to limit MVP favorite Josh Allen.

Key trends

• Buffalo is 8-4 ATS, tied for the fourth-best record in the league.
• The Rams are 5-7 ATS overall and 2-4 ATS at home.
• The over has hit in three of the last four Bills games and two of the previous three Rams games.

Pick: Rams +5

We'll side with the Rams and the points in a game Buffalo doesn't have much motivation to win, let alone cover. Sure, the Bills could continue their dominant run, but even if Allen's offense puts another 30 points on the board, Matthew Stafford is more than capable of keeping pace to cover the five points.

Sunday Night Football

The 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers to cap off Week 14's Sunday lineup. The Chiefs may be the luckiest 11-1 team in NFL history with one narrow victory after another and will look to make a statement against their division rival in prime time.

Case for the Chargers

• L.A.'s playing very solid football of late, collecting wins of seven or more points in four of its last six games and hanging tough with the Baltimore Ravens for its only loss over that span.
• The Chiefs' last three victories have all been by three points or less, and two of those came against the woeful Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders.

Case for the Chiefs

• The Chiefs need a convincing win to quiet the noise surrounding their fluky 11-1 record. A dominant victory over their division rivals would send a message to the league.

Key Trends

• The Chiefs have failed to cover in six straight games, falling to 5-7 ATS on the season.
• The Chargers are 8-4 ATS overall and 4-2 ATS on the road.

Pick: Chargers +4

Until the Chiefs prove they can beat teams by more than a field goal, it's tough to bet them to win by more than four points against a strong opponent. The Chargers have one of the league's best defenses, limiting opposing teams to 15.7 points per game (the lowest mark in the league). Fingers crossed Ladd McConkey can suit up to give Justin Herbert another weapon, but even if he doesn't, the Chargers should be able to keep this game close.