Player of the Year betting: Is trusting McCaffrey worth the risk?

We covered the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards here. Now it's time to focus on the Player of the Year honors.

With odds provided by ESPN BET and theScore Bet, let's take a look at each award, discuss the favorites, and see if there are bets worth making before the season starts.

Offensive Player of the Year

🏈 Check out all of the odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Since the MVP award has turned into a quarterback-only honor, it's easier to narrow down potential OPOY candidates. The last six winners have all been skill position players, and signal-callers rarely earn votes. Last year was a bit of an anomaly, though: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both had MVP-caliber seasons, and Jackson finished second in the OPOY voting to Saquon Barkley, likely as a consolation from voters who gave Allen the MVP nod.

This award has also morphed into a fantasy football award in the sense that the fantasy football MVP is likely going to be the OPOY. Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, and Cooper Kupp had undoubtedly the best fantasy football seasons in the years they won. Looking at it through that lens, it can become easier to spot value on the betting board.

Barkley (+600) is the favorite to repeat, even though no player has won back-to-back OPOYs since Marshall Faulk won three straight from 1999-2001. The running back is in the same spot with the Eagles as he was last year, but there will likely be some regression after he touched the ball 378 times in 2024. That's not to say he won't have a good season, but expecting over 2,000 yards on the ground again is a big ask.

Ja'Marr Chase (+900) is going first overall in many fantasy drafts, which implies he's most likely to have the best offensive season. The Bengals' offense is one of the best (if not the best) in the league, and they'll need to score a ton of points to cover for their suspect defense. As Joe Burrow's No. 1 target, Chase is the safest option on the board, but not the best bet to make.

A strong case can be made for Jahmyr Gibbs (+1200). He's the most electrifying back in the NFL and should put up similar numbers to last year. However, the Lions' former offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, left to take the head coaching role in Chicago, and there are some questions surrounding how the Lions' offense will perform under new leadership.

Picks

Bijan Robinson (+1600)

Bijan Robinson is often being selected inside the top four of fantasy football drafts, but his odds double Barkley's and are longer than both Chase's and Gibbs'.

There are unknowns about the Falcons' offense in its first full season with Michael Penix Jr. under center, but that's why Robinson's odds are long. However, in the three contests Penix started to close out last year (yes, it's a small sample size), Robinson torched opposing defenses. He averaged 118 rushing yards per game and scored six touchdowns. Admittedly, that's an unsustainable pace, but Penix showed he's capable of leading a high-powered offense, and Robinson reaped the benefits.

With a full offseason and training camp to prepare, there should be less concern about Penix leading this offense. The Falcons have the talent to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, and Robinson is in the perfect spot to put up OPOY-worthy numbers.

Christian McCaffrey (+2000)

Before you yell about Christian McCaffrey's injury concerns, ask yourself what his odds would be if it were guaranteed he'd play all 17 games. He'd be priced right beside Barkley as the favorite.

We don't know how many games McCaffrey will play this season, but we don't know how many games any OPOY candidate will play, either. The risk is baked into McCaffrey's +2000 price tag.

McCaffrey has been a full participant through training camp, and there are no signs he's still dealing with the calf issue that derailed his 2024 campaign. San Francisco is already navigating injuries at wide receiver, meaning the team will rely on McCaffrey even more in the passing game once the season begins.

Come season's end, everyone who passed on McCaffrey in fantasy drafts and didn't take his juicy +2000 OPOY odds just might be kicking themselves after he leads the NFL in rushing yards, touchdowns, and catches a ton of passes while the 49ers cruise to an NFC West title.

Brian Thomas Jr. (+3500)

We'll take one more swing in the OPOY market on a bit of a longer shot.

Brian Thomas Jr. put up 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie, a campaign in which he caught balls from Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones. Thomas did most of his damage with Jones at the helm, averaging 96.6 yards per game and catching five touchdowns in his final seven outings.

Lawrence is undeniably a better quarterback than Jones, so an upgrade under center will only help Thomas. New head coach Liam Coen unlocked Baker Mayfield's potential in Tampa Bay last year, and he's expected to have a similar effect on Lawrence. Thomas should see a ton of targets and has the skills to lead the NFL in receptions.

There's a chance Thomas is being drafted within the first five picks of fantasy football drafts in 2026, meaning this is the year he emerges as the league's best pass-catcher.

Defensive Player of the Year

🏈 Check out all of the odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Pat Surtain II became only the third cornerback to win the DPOY award since 1995. Much like the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, this honor has been dominated by pass-rushers in recent years: Eleven of the last 15 winners play the position.

Aidan Hutchinson (+700) is coming off a gruesome, season-ending leg break. He's the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year and has the talent to win DPOY, but there are still some concerns about his health after playing only five games last year.

Myles Garrett (+750) won the award in 2023 and should be a threat to win it again. But the Browns will struggle to win, and good defensive performances can be overlooked if the team isn't doing well.

The Cowboys and Micah Parsons (+800) have yet to reach an agreement on a deal, increasing the potential that the star edge rusher sits out a few games. T.J. Watt (+900) is a far better option than Parsons, as the Steelers are projected to be in the mix for a playoff spot and, unlike the Cowboys, will need to rely on their defense to win matchups.

Picks

Maxx Crosby (+1400)

Las Vegas gave Maxx Crosby a monstrous contract in the offseason, erasing any concerns of the surgically repaired ankle that ended his season last December.

The Raiders are expected to be a much better team in 2025 under Pete Carroll. Their defense has always been solid, but the team hasn't been competitive enough to elevate Crosby into a true DPOY candidate. Crosby should be in the running if he plays all 17 games and if the Raiders are in a playoff spot.

Nik Bonitto (+3000)

Nik Bonitto had a breakout campaign with the Broncos in 2024, recording 13.5 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss to earn second-team All-Pro honours. Denver's defense was one of the best in the league and projects to be equally as good in 2025.

DPOY voters haven't shied away from awarding repeat winners, or even teammates in back-to-back years. Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt won consecutive awards, and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed went back-to-back in 2000 and 2001. That means that, even though his teammate Surtain won the award last season, Bonitto still has a good chance if he continues to improve and leads the league in sacks.

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