NFL Sunday divisional bets: Texans' D presents Maye's toughest test
The divisional round continues Sunday with two incredible matchups. Drake Maye will face the toughest test of his young NFL career when the Texans and their vaunted defense arrive in Foxborough, Massachusetts, while Caleb Williams will look to get past Matthew Stafford and the Rams to earn the Bears' first trip to the NFC championship since 2010.
We covered our favorite bets for Saturday's two-game slate here and now continue our playoff betting competition with picks, props, touchdown scorers, and parlays for Sunday's lineup.
| Writer | Playoff record (W-L) | +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Deeg | 9-5 | +$284.50 |
| Oshtry | 6-6 | +$125.45 |
| Patterson | 6-10 | +$108.50 |
Let's get to the bets!
π Check out all of the markets available for Sunday's slate on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Texans-Patriots summary | Rams-Bears
π Pick: Texans ML (+150)
Deeg - Bet $60 to win $90
Houston's defense is the best unit left in the playoffs, and it's hard to bet against it right now. New England relies heavily on the deep passing game, and the Texans' EPA/pass (-0.26) ranked first in the league by a wide margin. The Chargers were 11th in that stat, and they held Maye to his third-lowest passer rating and second-lowest completion percentage of the season. They also sacked him five times, and Houston's pass rush is much more lethal than Los Angeles'.
The loss of Nico Collins is a significant one for the Texans' offense, but Christian Kirk stepped up in his absence last week with eight catches on nine targets, 144 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Dalton Schultz can keep the passing attack stable, while Woody Marks can take advantage of the Patriots' run defense, which finished 22nd in rush success rate and 22nd in EPA/rush, according to Next Gen Stats.
Although C.J Stroud turned the ball over three times versus Pittsburgh, I trust him to bounce back. New England was 21st in takeaways on the year and doesn't have the playmakers up front to force him into mistakes.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+200)
Oshtry - Bet $25 to win $50
Diggs hasn't been a frequent red-zone target, scoring only four touchdowns this season, but Maye trusts him as his top receiver. The second-year passer must get the ball out quickly before the Texans' defensive line reaches him, and he should frequently look in the direction of his most reliable option. For New England's offense to flourish, Diggs will need to put together a huge outing.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+300)
Deeg - Bet $20 to win $60
I'm going back to Higgins this week. He didn't score against the Steelers, but he would've reached the end zone on a flea-flicker if Stroud hadn't been sacked. The rookie wideout will be very important for Houston's offense with Collins set to miss the game. Higgins has six scores on the year, including two in his last three contests. These are great odds against a Patriots defense that allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to wideouts in 2025.
π Bet: Over 0.5 interceptions (-110)
Oshtry - Bet $45 to win $40.91
Maye didn't have the greatest playoff debut, and his offensive line struggled. It won't fare any better against the league's most daunting pass rush. Maye threw an interception last week, and I expect him to do so again Sunday on account of the constant pressure he'll face.
π Bet: Over 39.5 rushing yards (+100)
Deeg - Bet $30 to win $30
There's a ton of value here because Henderson rushed for only 27 yards last week, but he carried the ball nine times and was regularly involved in the offense. Henderson has eclipsed 40 rushing yards in nine of his previous 11 contests. This number feels far too low at even money.
π Bet: Over 6.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Patterson - Bet $60 to win $50
Maye took off 10 times against the Chargers and will face a similar test against the Texans' defense. He should see a ton of pressure, forcing him to use his legs to escape a collapsing pocket. He's more than capable of turning negative plays into positive ones, as he has done all season.
π Bet: Over 0.5 sacks (-120)
Patterson - Bet $60 to win $50
Hunter has registered 16 sacks in 18 appearances this year, including a run of five straight contests with at least one. The Texans' defensive line is dominant, and the Patriots' offensive line is suspect at best. Rookie offensive tackle Will Campbell didn't perform well in his playoff debut, which contributed to Maye being brought down five times. Maye was sacked 52 times during the regular season, the fourth most in the NFL.
π Bet: Patriots ML + Maye over 199.5 passing yards (+105)
Oshtry - Bet $60 to win $62.84
As dominant as the Texans' defense is, their offense won't score enough to win on the road. Although Maye could struggle with efficiency, the passing volume will remain against a defense that's slightly better against the run than the pass. If he nears his regular-season average of 28.9 attempts, Maye should clear 200 passing yards, considering he's done so in all but two games this year, including the wild-card round.
Texans-Patriots summary
| Patterson | Oshtry | Deeg |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter o0.5 sacks | Diggs TD | Texans ML |
| Maye o6.5 rush att. | Maye o0.5 INTs | Higgins TD |
| Pats parlay | Henderson o39.5 rush yds. |
π Check out all of the markets available for Sunday's slate on theScore Bet here
Jump to: Rams-Bears summary
π Pick: Rams -4 (-110)
Oshtry - Bet $75 to win $68
As incredible as the Bears' win over the Packers was, it speaks volumes that Green Bay led 21-3. Chicago's defense has gaping holes that the Rams should exploit, like the Packers did in the first half. But Stafford and Sean McVay won't collapse like the Packers did. While Los Angeles hasn't played its best over the last month, Chicago is coming off an incredibly emotional win. Is there such a thing as a letdown spot in the playoffs? We're about to find out. Until then, I'm backing the better coach and cast of talent.
π Bet: Over 48.5 (-105)
Deeg - Bet $65 to win $61.90
We're getting a discount on the total due to the weather, but both quarterbacks have strong arms and can handle the conditions. Despite aggressive winds swirling at Soldier Field last week, the Packers and Bears went way over this total. Chicago and Los Angeles ranked inside the top three in offensive plays run and finished second and eighth in EPA/play, respectively. These are two of the best offenses in football. We should be in for a shootout.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+200)
Oshtry - Bet $30 to win $60
The Rams struggle to defend the middle of the field, where Loveland likes to plant himself. Los Angeles also has small corners and safeties, creating a matchup advantage and red-zone opportunities for Loveland.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+210)
Deeg - Bet $20 to win $42
Bruising running backs thrive in cold-weather games, meaning Monangai is in line for a heavy workload. He played over 46% of the Bears' offensive snaps last week, and his 26 red-zone carries since Nov. 1 are the most among the team (135 attempts).
π Bet: Anytime TD (+700)
Deeg - Bet $10 to win $70
The second-round rookie tight end missed the wild-card round with a hamstring injury, but he's been a full participant in practice this week and is good to go for Sunday. The Rams play 13 personnel at the highest rate in the league by a wide margin, so Ferguson should receive a fair number of snaps. These are great odds for a player who's scored a touchdown in each of his last two outings.
π Bet: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-120)
Oshtry - Bet $60 to win $50
Chicago owns the second-worst run defense among playoff teams. Stafford, meanwhile, is banged up and dealing with a finger issue. Plus, the temperature will be freezing, so L.A. must rely on the run. Williams has averaged 69.5 rushing yards across 18 appearances this season.
π Bet: Over 10.5 rushing attempts (+100)
Patterson - Bet $75 to win $75
Sportsbooks adjusted Corum's rushing attempts prop but not enough in my eyes. We hit over 9.5 rushes last week (he had 11), so we'll go back to the well and see if he can record 11 or more carries for the fifth time in his last six contests. It's supposed to be freezing at game time, so I expect both teams to lean heavily on the run game.
π Bet: Over 5.5 receptions (+115)
Patterson - Bet $60 to win $69
Loveland earned 15 targets versus the Packers, marking his third straight game with at least 10 targets and six receptions. The Bears are clearly looking to get the ball to their rookie tight end. With all of the success they've found doing so, it would be foolish to go away from him with a trip to the NFC championship on the line.
π Bet: 3-leg parlay (+2518)
- Puka Nacua over 9.5 receptions
- Loveland over 6.5 receptions
- Luther Burden III over 3.5 receptions
Patterson - Bet $10 to win $251.83
There's a good chance this game turns into a shootout, even in the cold, which likely means there will be a lot of passing. Both quarterbacks are expected to throw at least 30 times, so why not build a three-leg parlay of the most popular pass-catchers on each team? I already discussed my love of Loveland, but Nacua has caught 10 passes in back-to-back games, and Burden has collected at least four receptions in four of his last six outings while earning 6.5 targets per game over that span.
Rams-Bears summary
| Patterson | Oshtry | Deeg |
|---|---|---|
| Corum o10.5 rush att. | Rams -4 | Total o48.5 |
| Loveland o5.5 rec. | Williams o59.5 rush yds. | Monangai TD |
| 3-leg parlay | Loveland TD | Ferguson TD |
Odds and lines derived from theScore Bet sportsbook and are subject to change. Real money was not used to make these wagers on theScore Bet.
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