Super Bowl odds: What are the Broncos' chances without Nix?

The Broncos punched their ticket to the AFC Championship Game with their overtime victory over the Bills on Saturday, but the win came at a steep price.

Quarterback Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle in the final few plays of the game, ending his postseason and potentially Denver's chances at winning the Super Bowl.

The Broncos were +400 (20% implied probability) on theScore Bet to claim the franchise's fourth title immediately after knocking out the Bills. However, those odds plummeted to +1200 (7.7% implied probability) following reports about Nix's injury. That's a huge shift with only four teams remaining, but the move could be warranted now that Jarrett Stidham is starting for Denver.

Super Bowl odds

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The Broncos will host the AFC championship against the Patriots but are 5.5-point underdogs at home. Denver's also +210 on the moneyline, meaning the betting market is giving it a 32.3% chance at beating New England.

Stidham has started four NFL games in his six-year career, compiling a 1-3 record between his time with the Raiders and Broncos. His lone win came with Denver in 2023, when the Broncos beat the Chargers 16-9 in Week 17. Although he's appeared in 20 contests, Stidham has a completion percentage of only 59.4% and a rating of 78.3. You can understand the betting market's hesitation in feeling comfortable backing Denver, even at long odds.

The Patriots theoretically benefit the most from Nix's injury. Instead of being slight underdogs in the AFC title game, they're now big favorites and have a clear path to the Super Bowl in Drake Maye's second year. Based on the championship odds, New England won't be favored if it makes it to the Super Bowl. However, the Pats could have the best shot at getting there among the four last teams.

The Seahawks are still the Super Bowl favorites after dismantling the 49ers. They now welcome another NFC West rival into town and will look to win the season series against the Rams to earn their spot in the big game. A total of three combined points decided the Seahawks and Rams' two meetings this season. Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game.

Odds and lines derived from theScore Bet sportsbook and are subject to change. Real money was not used to make these wagers on theScore Bet.

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