Scrappy underdogs: Why favorites have struggled in recent Super Bowls
The underdog has been a bettor's best friend in recent Super Bowls, covering five straight games and winning three consecutive outright. In fact, over the last 18 matchups, underdogs are 13-5 against the spread and 11-7 outright. Going back further, in the last 24 Super Bowls, underdogs are 17-7 against the spread and 13-11 outright.
| Year | Super Bowl matchup |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Eagles (+1.5) def. Chiefs |
| 2024 | Chiefs (+2) def. 49ers |
| 2023 | Chiefs (+2) def. Eagles |
| 2022 | Rams (-4) def. Bengals |
| 2021 | Buccaneers (+3) def. Chiefs |
| 2020 | Chiefs (-1.5) def. 49ers |
| 2019 | Patriots (-2.5) def. Rams |
| 2018 | Eagles (+4.5) def. Patriots |
| 2017 | Patriots (-3.5) def. Falcons |
| 2016 | Broncos (+4.5) def. Panthers |
| 2015 | Patriots (+1) def. Seahawks |
| 2014 | Seahawks (+2) def. Broncos |
| 2013 | Ravens (+4.5) def. 49ers |
| 2012 | Giants (+2.5) def. Patriots |
| 2011 | Packers (-3) def. Steelers |
| 2010 | Saints (+5) def. Colts |
Underdogs don't just cover; they win the big game more often than favorites, a trend that tracks back to the early 2000s. So why are oddsmakers consistently off when pricing the most bet-on annual sporting event?
For starters, it's hard to price a winner-take-all game at a neutral site when both teams have two weeks of preparation and rest. Anything can happen in 60 minutes, but the Super Bowl is more of a spectacle than a game. How teams handle the extra attention, pregame festivities, and a longer halftime, among other wrinkles, is almost as important as the on-field product. Determining which team has the edge regarding those extraneous factors is difficult. The Super Bowl provides the most level playing field, and when there are only two teams left standing, it's tough to justify one team being a substantial favorite over another.
Of course, closing spreads are often based on bettors' activity. The line moves based on how the perceived sharp action comes in. However, there isn't an NFL game that receives more public betting than the Super Bowl. If fans dislike teams or root against certain dynasties, they might be more inclined to bet against them, which can affect how sportsbooks manage their risk. Sportsbooks may offset an enormous amount of public money by hanging a spread that sharp bettors view as value.
For instance, the Chiefs were short underdogs in their last two Super Bowl wins, partly because of the public betting against them. The reality is that spreads have often been flat-out wrong as a predictor of who wins the Super Bowl, creating huge opportunities for bettors to cash in on recent underdogs.
Now, does this mean you should blindly bet on the Patriots, who are 4.5-point underdogs against the Seahawks on theScore Bet? Probably not, but the underdog trend is certainly useful information in making a Super Bowl pick.
New England's offensive struggles and perceived easy path explain why it's an underdog. Seattle opened as 3.5-point favorites, and the line quickly moved to 4.5. Drake Maye, along with the offensive line, has struggled in all three of the Patriots' playoff wins. Their defense carried the team to the Super Bowl, but even that unit isn't being properly credited for its efforts.
The Patriots faced Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham on their way to Santa Clara, hardly the league's toughest offensive competition. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defeated the 49ers and Rams, a pair of division foes, to reach the big game.
Many people don't believe New England's offense can keep pace with Seattle's. However, if recent history is any indication, the underdog Patriots have a far greater chance of winning, or at least covering the spread, than the betting market suggests.
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