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If there's baseball this summer, it'll come during a significantly shortened season, which could lead to value on volume-based prop bets. Today, we'll break down the best bets to lead MLB in stolen bases, which is becoming a lost art in today's game.
Last year's king, Mallex Smith, swiped the second-fewest bases (46) of any leader since 1963. The fewest was Whit Merrifield (45) in 2018. Sense a theme? Still, both those players nabbed at least 30 bases the year prior, so the top base-stealers are still worth betting in this volatile field.
Here are the odds to lead MLB in stolen bases this season, with a few names to target as early values:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Adalberto Mondesi | +200 |
| Mallex Smith | +375 |
| Trea Turner | +600 |
| Jonathan Villar | +900 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +900 |
| Victor Robles | +1600 |
| Starling Marte | +2000 |
| Whit Merrifield | +2500 |
| Byron Buxton | +3000 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +3000 |
| Jose Ramirez | +3000 |
| Jarrod Dyson | +3000 |
| Oscar Mercado | +4000 |
| Christian Yelich | +4000 |
| Francisco Lindor | +4000 |
| Amed Rosario | +4000 |
| Elvis Andrus | +4500 |
| Dee Gordon | +4500 |
| Trevor Story | +5000 |
| Billy Hamilton | +6000 |
| Bo Bichette | +6600 |
| Luis Robert | +6600 |
| Tommy Pham | +6600 |
| Tim Anderson | +8000 |
| Mookie Betts | +10000 |
| Kolten Wong | +10000 |
| Mike Trout | +25000 |
Adalberto Mondesi (+200)
The price isn't great in such a volatile market, but I'd be remiss not to highlight Mondesi, last year's runner-up with 43 stolen bases. He's swiped 75 bases in 690 plate appearances over the last two years with a stolen base percentage of 84.3 - a tick below his stellar 94.6% success rate in the minors over the last four seasons.
He's led the majors in speed score each of the last two years (min. 250 PA) with the Royals, who collectively stole more bases in 2019 (169) than any other team. Yet Mondesi's lackluster bat could limit his plate appearances once again, which makes him a risky bet at short odds.
Trea Turner (+600)
Nobody's stolen more bases over the last three seasons (124) than Turner, who's nabbed at least 35 over that span. He's also led the league in "bolts" - runs above 30 feet/second - for two straight seasons, and his sprint speed (30.4 ft/s) was second-best in the majors last year. The speed and production are there, making him arguably the safest bet in this field.
Byron Buxton (+3000)
I know, I know, nobody wants to have their money tied up in Buxton's ability (or lack thereof) to stay on the field. When he's playing, though, few are better at stealing bases. The Twins outfielder is among the fastest in the league in terms of raw speed, and his 88.2 career stolen base percentage is remarkable. A shortened year is the perfect opportunity for Buxton to stay healthy, which is easily worth a long shot bet.
Billy Hamilton (+6000)
There's plenty of risk betting on Hamilton, whom the Giants signed to a minor-league deal after an injury-plagued 2019. There's also a ton of upside - Hamilton has more steals over the last four years than any player, and his average time to first base was four seconds in 2019 - eighth-best in MLB. There isn't minor-league baseball for Hamilton to play, so if he earns a big-league role, he could "run away" with this in a funky season.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
