Ah, takes. Less than three weeks into an NBA season seems like the perfect time for some.
In reality, it's still too early to draw radical conclusions about the 2020-21 campaign - especially given the challenging circumstances unique to this season.
Yet given what we've seen so far, we can bet on whether certain trends will continue.
Joel Embiid for MVP?
Joel Embiid has been the best player on a 7-3 team. Through eight appearances, the Philadelphia 76ers center is averaging 24.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. He's also hitting 52.5% of his shots overall, including 45.8% of his 3-point attempts. Forty-five point eight percent.
The imposing big man plays a pivotal defensive role, anchoring a unit that's conceded 104.9 points per 100 possessions - good for second in the NBA.
But more importantly, Embiid is profoundly impacting the 76ers' offense. In 258 minutes with the three-time All-Star on the floor, Philly has scored 116.1 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, the team's offensive rating has cratered to 97.7.
Still, Embiid needs to keep this up once the 76ers' schedule gets tougher. It's hard to tell how much stock to put into dominant outings against middling teams like the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets.
Verdict: BUY
Suns shining
The Phoenix Suns are 7-3 and tied for the top spot in the Western Conference an eighth of the way through their regular-season slate. They've already beaten the Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, and Toronto Raptors - all 2020 playoff teams - and the Suns nearly came back from down 31 points to notch a road victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.
Phoenix's success goes beyond the Chris Paul factor. While the future Hall of Famer has shepherded each of his four previous franchises to playoff appearances, he hasn't completely gelled with Suns All-Star Devin Booker yet. In 214 minutes with both on the floor going into Saturday's game, the team had posted a net rating of minus-7.6.
Wait, how does a team rise to the top of the standings when its two best players aren't clicking? Well, the Suns' stable of lightly regarded role players - like Cameron Payne (who has posted a net rating of plus-24.7 per 100 possessions), Cameron Johnson (plus-21.7 per 100), Langston Galloway (plus-13.8 per 100), and Frank Kaminsky (plus-30.4 per 100) - have dominated so far.
This is all quite encouraging. In time, the club's starting backcourt should become a net positive, and then the team's spotty fourth-quarter execution will improve too. And even if tertiary role players drift back down to earth, the Suns are primed for a very successful season.
Verdict: HOLD. The Suns were expected to rise into the playoff conversation this season, and so far, so good.
Nikola Jokic, point guard
In a July 22 bubble exhibition contest, the Denver Nuggets started a ludicrously large lineup against the Utah Jazz, and 7-footer Nikola Jokic led the group as the point guard.
Jokic's premium passing skills made sense at the point for a weirdo lineup in a glorified scrimmage. Now fast forward to this season, and the two-time All-NBA center ranks third in the league with 10.9 assists per game - including a career-high 18 on Dec. 28.
No regular center has ever averaged double-digit assists over an entire NBA campaign, and only Wilt Chamberlain has tallied more than Jokic in a single game.
Averaging 10-plus assists per game might not be that far-fetched for Jokic. The Serbian averaged seven-plus assists in each of the last two seasons, and every campaign he seems to become more comfortable zipping quarterback-style outlet passes or behind-the-head dimes from the elbow. Still, sustaining a near-league-leading output all season is a tall order.
Verdict: SELL
The Knicks aren't a bad team
This year's New York Knicks squad doesn't have the usual markers of a bad team, at least according to Austin Rivers' assessment. Statistically, he's right, as the Knicks are hovering right around league average while boasting the NBA's 15th-ranked offense and 12th-ranked defense.
Is the Knicks' revival under new head coach Tom Thibodeau sustainable? It's hard to say. Thibs' previous teams have historically enjoyed success early in his tenures, especially on the defensive end. Part of that is tied to his willingness to ride his young players hard, which can yield consistent play, though often at the cost of late-season energy (to say nothing of long-term health).
To that point, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett are currently leading the league in minutes, averaging 38.6 and 38.1 per night, respectively. However, with that pair on the court together for over 30 minutes per game, the Knicks have outscored their opponents by just 1.6 points per 100 possessions.
In a season when both injuries and the still-raging pandemic can erode a team's depth chart in a matter of hours, the Knicks' top-heavy approach means they're playing with fire.
Verdict: SELL (they're the Knicks)
Do you believe in Magic?
Going into Sunday, the Orlando Magic hold a 6-4 record and a top-15 defensive rating. While the latter can be attributed to head coach Steve Clifford's history of extracting maximum effort on that end, Orlando's roster clearly comes with a ceiling.
Losing Markelle Fultz is a brutal blow, but don't bet against Cole Anthony rising up in his place. The rookie guard has brought big-time energy off the bench, and he's already answering some pre-draft criticism by showing an occasional knack for passing.
However, this team has also benefited from a fairly light schedule, which came into focus after weekend blowout losses to the Rockets and Mavericks.
Orlando is also essentially rooted in the same personnel as the last two seasons. The club is good enough to earn lower-tier playoff seeding and a first-round playoff exit.
Verdict: SELL
Toronto Raptors becoming a lottery team
On paper, the Raptors simply aren't as bad as their 2-6 record suggests. Players fully capable of making shots didn't do so in several of their first eight games, and the Raptors turned on the Jets while showing what kind of team they can be after a woeful start Friday in Sacramento.
However, flashing red lights remain. Losing crafty bigs Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol this past offseason was always going to hurt, but replacements Aron Baynes and Alex Len have been subpar. Baynes is shooting under 38% from the floor, which is atrocious for a center. The result is added pressure on Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam, and likely a prolonged shift to smaller lineups. How sustainable that is remains to be seen.
If Toronto falls into a bigger hole, the team playing its home games in Tampa - 1,400 miles away from its actual home - may start viewing this campaign as a lost season. And if that happens, the Raptors' primary goal will be to get a maximum trade return for Lowry, the greatest player in franchise history.
That potential move could be necessary, though undoubtedly painful for fans. Like Lowry, team president Masai Ujiri is unsigned beyond this season. Ujiri has built his career on making shrewd moves, and trading the veteran may be his last in Toronto. An intriguing 2021 draft lottery class also awaits for whoever is in charge of the Raptors this offseason.
Verdict: BUY
