NBA contender tiers: Does your team have a chance this season?

It's hard to believe, but NBA training camps open later this month and opening night is seven weeks away. So, how does your team stack up after a whirlwind summer?

With the exception of Jalen Duren's restricted free agency and the cap-circumvention scandal still looming over Kawhi Leonard, the Los Angeles Clippers, and, by extension, the Toronto Raptors, the NBA's offseason business is mostly complete. With that, we've broken the league down into tiers of contention, from three front-runners to the Association's most hopeless club.

Note: For additions and departures, we only considered rotation players who finished top-10 on the team in minutes last season or postseason, players who project as rotation fixtures in 2026-27, and first-round draft picks.

The three favorites

We must respect the defending champions, especially after the Knicks rampaged through the playoffs with a 16-3 record and the best point differential any champion has ever produced. Going from Robinson to Drummond is a clear downgrade, but Robinson logged less than 20 minutes per game during the regular season and even less (13.9 MPG) in the playoffs.

Entering the new season as reigning West champions, the Spurs boast the MVP frontrunner (Victor Wembanyama), a deep collection of young stars poised to take significant steps forward (led by Dylan Harper), and their entire playoff rotation. San Antonio also added another veteran shooter (Harris) to the only squad in the league that finished top-three on both ends of the court last campaign.

If we use the postseason as our guide, Dort is Oklahoma City's only real rotation loss, and the Thunder have more than enough 3-and-D talent on the perimeter and wings to make up for it. This team has a balanced trio of stars leading the way, an incredibly deep stable of two-way role players, and a couple of intriguing youngsters joining the mix in Mara and Stirtz, both of whom could contribute immediately. Barring something catastrophic, the Thunder can coast to 60 wins and championship contention in their sleep.

Full-fledged contenders

I have questions about how all the pieces fit together, how Philadelphia will defend, and how long Joel Embiid can stay healthy. Still, with James and Brown joining Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, and Co., the 76ers have an overwhelming amount of talent. Such an enviable collection of stars will allow head coach Nick Nurse to roll out formidable lineups no matter who's in or out on a given night. And regardless of regular-season seeding, the Sixers now have the East's highest playoff ceiling.

Slept-on East contenders

If and when Leonard officially rejoins the Raptors, it can't be overstated how well he fits and completes the team. Leonard can do everything Ingram did to improve Toronto's half-court offense, but at a vastly superior level, and he's a more well-rounded offensive threat. The defensive upgrade is even more significant, as the Raptors will add a two-time Defensive Player of the Year to a frontcourt already boasting All-Defensive team member Scottie Barnes and rising youngster Collin Murray-Boyles.

Put another way, the Raptors are adding a player who received MVP votes last season to a club that won 46 games and pushed the heavily favored Cavs to Game 7 in the playoffs - all without losing a single player who logged top-five minutes in the postseason.

We all clowned the Celtics for selling low on Brown after the former Finals MVP's career year, but don't be surprised if Boston gets the last laugh. George has to stay healthy - no easy feat for the 36-year-old - but his 3-and-D game fits the Celtics' preferred style of play better than Brown's ball-stopping. That's especially true with Jayson Tatum expected back at full strength. The addition of Robinson went somewhat under the radar, but the league's best offensive rebounder will create a ton of second-chance points for Boston's 3-point-heavy attack. On paper, the Celtics look like a better two-way team than they were a year ago.

Cleveland's uninspiring postseason play left a bitter taste in our mouths, but underestimate the Cavs at your own peril. In Watson, the club finally found the type of athletic 3-and-D wing to plug between its dynamic backcourt and giant frontcourt. The departures listed above form an underrated foursome, but the Cavs added a quality starter (Watson) to a squad that went 21-9 and reached the conference finals after acquiring James Harden.

Fringe West contenders

There's a lot to like about the Timberwolves on paper. Ball gives Anthony Edwards the most dynamic backcourt partner he's ever had, while Edwards, Kuminga, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert have the collective size and defensive upside to protect Ball on the less glamorous end of the court. With Edwards only entering his prime and the Wolves having advanced to at least the second round in three straight seasons, there's no reason to write Minnesota off. However, Ball still has a lot to prove when it comes to his decision-making, and the once-giant Wolves now look a little thin in the frontcourt. Minnesota enters the new year as one of the league's most unpredictable teams.

Nikola Jokic's presence means Denver always has at least a puncher's chance, but a slow talent drain since winning the 2023 championship continued this summer. Between Watson and Hardaway, the Nuggets are down 305 3-pointers from last season. DeRozan remains a crafty scorer and underrated playmaker, though he won't provide Denver with the shooting, rim-pressure, or defense it desperately needs. The last guaranteed season of Jokic's contract could be another frustrating one.

No team dealt with as much offseason turnover as the Lakers, who are now better constructed around Luka Doncic in a post-LeBron world. Doncic, the re-signed Austin Reaves, and an intriguing mix of role players put L.A. on the fringes of contention, but this club still feels incomplete. This looks like a one-way team that will rely too heavily on Kessler and Thybulle to prop up a shoddy defense. In surrendering so much as part of a sign-and-trade transaction for Kessler, the capped-out Lakers also don't appear capable of addressing the flaws that still exist on their new-look roster.

VanVleet's return gives Houston the type of offensive initiator, floor general, and table-setter its offense desperately needed last season, but the veteran guard won't be the difference between a championship and last year's first-round exit. The Rockets' talented youngsters need to mature and take steps forward, while Kevin Durant has to let his game do the talking, not his (alleged) teammate-bashing burner accounts. We haven't forgotten how pathetic the Rockets looked in a first-round series against the comically depleted Lakers.

Still missing something

After winning an East-leading 60 games and advancing to the second round of the playoffs, Pistons fans will likely find this slot extremely disrespectful to Cade Cunningham's squad. But while Cunningham and a solid defense remain intact, Detroit's roster just feels a little thinner (though Collins is an underrated acquisition). And that's before addressing the fact that Duren - Detroit's franchise center - remains unsigned following a disastrous postseason performance.

When healthy, Antetokounmpo still provides MVP-level impact, and pairing him with Bam Adebayo in a devastating defensive frontcourt gives Miami a solid floor. However, the Heat's ceiling isn't quite championship-height. The additions of Thompson and Hardaway addressed a decent chunk of the team's shooting needs, but Miami still doesn't have the playmaking and off-the-dribble creation required to truly contend.

Contenders in their own minds

If Haliburton returns to his All-NBA best and Pascal Siakam remains in All-Star form, having the Pacers this low - rather than in the 'slept-on East contenders' category - will seem foolish in hindsight. Indiana boasts impressive depth and balance, with center Ivica Zubac sure to be a great fit for Haliburton's squad, which came within one win of a championship a year and a half ago. But opening night will also mark roughly 16 months since Haliburton last played for Indiana (and tore his Achilles). Expecting the superstar guard to find his footing immediately is both unfair and unrealistic.

Last year's acquisition of Desmond Bane brought a consistent scorer who averaged 20.1 points on 48/39/91 shooting, yet the Magic remained a below-average offensive team while regressing defensively. Orlando followed up that disappointing campaign by doing nothing of significance with its roster. The Magic enter 2026-27 facing the same questions about whether Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner can complement each other, and whether Jalen Suggs can stay healthy. There's talent here, and new head coach Sean Sweeney arrives with an impressive reputation as a defensive strategist, but the Magic are still in prove-it territory.

The Hawks went 26-11 down the stretch last season, were the only playoff team to take multiple games off the eventual champion Knicks, and then got better - or at least deeper - this summer. That has many viewing Atlanta as a fringe contender, but the East is now too good and too deep for this particular roster to sniff a Finals berth.

Pesky West spoilers

After years of prematurely punting on seasons and blatantly tanking, the new-look Jazz are set to be the West's most improved team. Peterson has superstar upside and should tease some of that potential immediately, while Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. will finally get to share the frontcourt. Peterson's arrival shouldn't distract from the fact that Utah already has an impressive array of intriguing prospects, led by Ace Bailey, Keyonte George, Kyle Filipowski, and Isaiah Collier, among others. It'll be fun to see how head coach Will Hardy blends it all now that he can actually play to win. A playoff berth isn't out of the question.

Morant and Lillard trying to recapture the magic of their primes makes Portland one of the league's most fascinating teams. Even if both guards remain shells of their former selves (for very different reasons) and the Blazers' defense regresses as expected, they should still give superior teams fits. Deni Avdija is impossible to keep off the free-throw line, Toumani Camara is elite defensively, Donovan Clingan is a walking double-double, and Jrue Holiday still has something to offer. Portland will remain a tough out every night.

Phoenix was last season's biggest surprise, and the Suns spent a lot of money this summer to keep the scrappy band together long-term. They probably won't win 45 games again, and the defense is sure to regress after replacing Allen and O'Neal with Bridges and Kennard, but Devin Booker and a deep supporting cast should be enough to remain competitive. That said, moving the team's only tradable first-round pick over the next seven years for Bridges might've been the worst decision of the entire offseason.

Fading fast

It's a sad state of affairs when Steph Curry's continued brilliance will come on a team for whom a play-in berth would be considered a success. But that's where things stand for the Warriors. Curry's supporting cast is nowhere near good enough, and Jimmy Butler isn't expected back until some time in the new year. At least Lendeborg provides a jolt of youthful optimism.

Rising rebuilders

The Hornets won 28 of their final 38 games last season - the third-best mark in the league over that span - then traded their franchise player (Ball) and fourth-leading scorer (Bridges). General manager Jeff Peterson is betting that Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller will be supported by a smarter, more balanced group, which is a sensible, if gutsy, wager. Charlotte is unlikely to increase its win total this season, but the combination of Knueppel, Miller, Reid, additional young talent (like Moussa Diabate and Ryan Kalkbrenner), and a treasure trove of future draft picks leaves the team in no worse shape post-Ball.

The Mavericks owe a top-two protected pick to Charlotte, so they don't have much incentive to tank, especially with the new lottery rules and a weak 2027 draft class expected. But they also won't be in any rush during team president Masai Ujiri's first season at the helm. That makes the Mavs hard to pin down. In the event Irving looks healthy - and actually remains a Maverick - Dallas could find itself in play-in contention. Cooper Flagg is already that good.

The Grizzlies won't win enough games to sniff playoff contention, but from a big-picture view, they're undoubtedly rising. Boozer has franchise-changing potential, the roster is bursting with young talent, and Memphis has a tough collection of big men who should keep the youngsters - and opponents - in line. There's a vision here in the post-Morant era, which is more than we can say for some of the next teams on this list.

What are they trying to do?

Dybantsa was the No. 1 pick in what was considered a transcendent draft class, and he instantly transformed Washington's outlook. The Wizards should prioritize Dybantsa's development above all else, along with fostering the growth of fellow prospects like Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Kyshawn George, Bub Carrington, Will Riley, and Bilal Coulibaly. Instead, the team gave Trae Young $212 million, elected not to trade Anthony Davis, then spent four second-round picks on Ayton and Middleton. If the Wizards think this ill-fitting group of veterans can help their youngsters compete immediately, they're in for a rude awakening.

The Pelicans were already a strange mix of one-way players before adding Mathurin. The Canadian swingman, who has his eyes on free agency next summer and has every incentive to fire away, joins a team featuring Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Saddiq Bey, and prospects Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears. Good luck to new head coach Jamahl Mosley as he tries to make this hodgepodge of a roster resemble a functioning team. There isn't a worse-fitting roster in the league.

Bad teams with decent pieces

The Clippers will likely hand the keys to Wagler and Darius Garland in the backcourt, with Ingram, Hachimura, Strus, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez, Derrick Jones Jr., and Kris Dunn forming a veteran supporting cast. It's not great, or even good, but it's not terrible, either. Head coach Ty Lue has worked wonders with less.

Any team featuring Herro as its best player has a clearly capped ceiling, and the overall upside obviously pales in comparison to that of former Antetokounmpo-led clubs. But the Bucks aren't any more hopeless than last year's squad was. At the very least, Milwaukee is deep, with 10-plus rotation players for new head coach Taylor Jenkins to choose from. It's a start.

The Kings are going to stink again, but watching Acuff Jr. should be a treat, as the Arkansas product has elite scoring potential and All-Star upside. Karaban, Maxime Raynaud, and Dylan Cardwell are also worth keeping an eye on as interesting prospects. Beyond that, the only subplots of another woeful season in Sacramento will be whether Keegan Murray can remember how to shoot and if Domantas Sabonis and the expiring Zach LaVine have any value on the trade market.

At least they're finally rebuilding

The Bulls finally accepted that a rebuild was necessary after years of chasing their tail (and mediocrity). Wilson, a power forward with tantalizing potential, represents the first cornerstone of that new era. Meanwhile, after signing a short contract with a second-year team option, Powell should emerge as one of the league's most obvious trade chips. Until then, it might be fun watching him in a primary role with little to lose on this overmatched team.

Is it next year yet?

Despite head coach Jordi Fernandez's best efforts, the Nets figure to be one of the league's worst teams again. Making matters worse, Brooklyn doesn't have a surefire building block yet and doesn't control its own 2027 first-rounder. Barring one of the club's young players really popping, there won't be any payoff for Nets fans who have to watch another wasted season (unless you're moved by the idea of Julius Randle as a No. 1 option).

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.