March tipped off with a bang, even if the contests didn't take place in the largest gyms or on national television. Overtimes and late-game heroics from Conway, Arkansas, to Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, resulted in the end of Cinderella hopes and dreams. With three more tournaments tipping off Thursday, let's search for betting opportunities.
Missouri Valley Conference (March 3)
Early-round bet: Indiana State vs. Illinois State (Projected line: -1)
Based on these teams' market prices toward the end of the season, this game should be lined near a pick'em. My numbers lean more to Illinois State, which boasts the player I'd most want with the ball in his hands late. Antonio Reeves had 28 points in a blowout win over Indiana State to end the season, while Cooper Neese has struggled to get it going late in the year for the Sycamores.
Pick: Illinois State (-3 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Missouri State vs. Loyola-Chicago (Projected line: -2.5)
I'm backing Missouri State (+400) to win the tournament, as the program is on the easier side of the bracket. Should the Bears get past Drake in the semifinals, they'll be either a short underdog or a small favorite in the final of Arch Madness in St. Louis. I'll bet Missouri State in any matchup, but if it's Loyola-Chicago on the other side, anything with a "plus" in front of it would be great.
Pick: Missouri State (+1.5 or better)
West Coast Conference (March 3)
Early-round bet: Pacific vs. Loyola-Marymount (Projected line: -2.5)
The West Coast edition of Loyola has faced Pacific twice in its last three games, losing on the road by one point and then getting revenge with a comfortable win and cover in the season finale. Unless there's a massive adjustment toward Loyola-Marymount, I'll be looking to lay a short price with the Lions.
Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-4 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's (Projected line: -5)
Assuming Santa Clara can take care of business in its quarterfinal game, the team will get a matchup with Saint Mary's, which will have yet to play in Las Vegas with the echoes from its upset of Gonzaga ringing in the team's ears. The Broncos were 1-5 against the top squads in the WCC, but their one victory came against the Gaels. I'll back Santa Clara to keep this one close.
Pick: Santa Clara (+5 or better)
Sun Belt Conference (March 3)
Early-round bet: Little Rock vs. South Alabama (Projected line: -12)
The wide-open "Fun Belt" tournament should be wild with everyone but Little Rock having a chance to make a run. So, with so many coin-flip games, let's pick on the worst team. South Alabama frequently finds itself atop the league in advanced metric ratings, but it's the 5-seed in Pensacola, Florida, which means the Jaguars have to play in the first round. This should be nothing more than a tuneup.
Pick: South Alabama (-12 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Georgia State in the Sun Belt final
Being the hot team coming into a tournament guarantees nothing. But if streaking Georgia State can make the final, I'll continue to ride the Panthers - who I have a +400 ticket on to win the event - against whomever they're playing, most likely Texas State or South Alabama.
Pick: Georgia State (PK or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
