Midwest Region betting preview: If not Kansas, then who?

Of all the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, Kansas seems to have the easiest path in the Midwest Region. Whether that translates to another Final Four appearance for Bill Self, whose teams have faltered with relatively easy routes in the past, is another thing entirely.

Naturally, the odds for the Midwest Region reflect a group that contains arguably the lowest-rated No. 2, 3, and 4 seeds.

Odds to win the Midwest Region

The blatant disrespect for Providence is the first thing that jumps out, as the No. 4 seed has been deemed the 10th-most likely team to make the Final Four. Ranked 49th in KenPom, the Friars are also rated as the luckiest team in the country thanks to numerous close wins en route to the Big East regular-season title. A blowout loss in the Big East Tournament didn't help their argument.

First-round bet to make

(9) Creighton vs. (8) San Diego State (-2, 120)

At 22nd in KenPom ratings, San Diego State could be considered underseeded. Falling just short of both the regular-season and Mountain West Tournament titles hurt the team's resume. But its second-ranked defense is just as good as when the Aztecs were given better seeds.

When dealing with San Diego State's pressure, it's best to have a quality point guard. However, for Creighton, that player will be sitting on its bench with a cast on. The Blue Jays lost Ryan Nembhard for the season in February, leaving the ball-handling duties to freshman Trey Alexander.

The Aztecs are 12-3 in their last 15 games. All three of those losses came by one point. Look for veteran transfer Matt Bradley to dominate the undersized Creighton guards, while Nathan Mensah can neutralize the Jays' 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Pick: San Diego State (-2)

Underdog sleeper to target

(14) Colgate vs (3) Wisconsin (-7.5, 139)

I'm on record in thinking Colgate wins this game outright, but we'll take the points in Round 1 with the Raiders since Milwaukee should provide some element of home-court advantage for Wisconsin. The Badgers provide a more manageable challenge athletically than Arkansas, which overwhelmed Colgate in the first round of last year's tournament, and there's concern about the health of Wisconsin star Johnny Davis.

Should the Raiders (+280) stun the Badgers - one of KenPom's 10 luckiest teams this season - they'd get either LSU or Iowa State. Either of those teams would be ripe for an upset as both were rated worse than the Raiders in offensive efficiency. In that case, taking the points again in Round 2 would be the play to make.

Pick: Colgate (+7.5)

Best value bet to win the Midwest Region

The very short +150 price makes Kansas unbettable, which is by design. We'll potentially be able to find a more valuable betting opportunity on the Jayhawks when they're short favorites in the Sweet 16 against Iowa, as well as a subsequent rollover with whomever they might face in the regional final. As for who that might be, the bottom half of this region is where I'd look for a valuable long shot.

There are two things to like about USC. The first is how the Trojans match up with the biggest hurdle in their half of the bracket. If they can get past a tough Miami team, the Trojans have the length to match up with Auburn. Isaiah Mobley is one of few players in the country that could pose a problem for Jabari Smith.

The second reason to like USC is the price. The Trojans would be around 6-point underdogs to the Tigers in the second round but provide 10 times the payout as Auburn. The Tigers have a tendency to beat themselves, with their guards often struggling to set up Smith. Should USC pull off that upset, there's no one in the group of LSU, Iowa State, Wisconsin, or South Dakota State, that it should be underdogs against despite three of those teams having shorter odds to win the region than the Trojans.

Pick: USC +2500

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.