You should always build your handicap of a matchup around the statistics and metrics you believe to be most important. As we head into March Madness, I'll be basing my handicaps for conference tournaments around individual teams' shot quality. Using ShotQuality's Adjusted Offensive points (AdjOFF), Adjusted Defensive points (AdjDEF), and "Rim & 3" rate (R3), we'll back teams that excel at getting good shots and limiting their opponents' quality of shots. While we can't predict whether the balls bounce in or out, we'll let the chips fall where they may knowing we have a basis for our search for value against the spread.
Colonial Athletic Association (March 3)
Early-round bet: (11) Northeastern vs. (6) Delaware
With all due respect to an electric 12-13 matchup Friday, the CAA really gets cooking with Saturday's quarterfinals. The two other preset quarters are close to pick'em games - and rightly so - while this matchup should probably be closer than a projected line of more than four points.
There isn't much that separates Northeastern and Delaware's adjusted shot quality metrics, and the Huskies have a higher R3 rate. Each team won by a bucket in their two meetings this season, so any points are worth taking Saturday.
Pick: Northeastern (+4.5 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (2) Charleston vs. (1) Hofstra
When investigating the CAA, the first question asked has to be: "How did Charleston not get the 1-seed?" The answer, it turns out, was one bad week in which the Cougars suffered an upset loss at home to Hofstra and a defeat at Drexel. Charleston, once nationally ranked, shot 5-of-31 from three against Hofstra and basically led against Drexel throughout until the Dragons took the lead on a bucket with four seconds left. The Cougars' 16-2 record was only good enough for a share of the conference title.
With over a month to think about a rematch and ShotQuality metrics light-years ahead of anyone else in the conference, a projected line of Charleston -2.5 would be a play on the Cougars in the biggest revenge spot of all.
Pick: Charleston (-3 or better)
Champ pick: Towson (+650)
As the odds-on favorite at -110, Charleston is likely to win the tournament. There's one team in the CAA that played the Cougars tough twice, though.
As the only other above-average offensive team in the CAA, Towson shoots over 40% from three. The Tigers took the Cougars to overtime and were tied late in the second half in the other matchup. They finished 12-6 because of a handful of very excusable and highly competitive road losses, where they were missing a leading scorer or lost in overtime or by a late basket. If you're looking to take a shot at the kings of the Colonial, the Tigers are the play on neutral territory in Washington, D.C.
Big Sky conference (March 4)
Early-round bet: (5) Idaho State vs. (4) Montana
Warning: This is apparently a Missoula fan account.
Call me crazy, but I like Montana's path. A slow start to conference season - right after it hung with Gonzaga in Spokane - has it as the 4-seed, but that hasn't cost the team in its first matchup. I don't have Idaho State as the fifth-best team in the conference, and neither does kenpom.com, which has it ninth.
The Bengals can't even take advantage of the Grizzlies' main weakness - rebounding - as both teams have a below-average margin in-conference. Look for Montana - winners of seven of its last eight - to stay hot.
Pick: Montana (-4.5 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (4) Montana vs. (1) Eastern Washington
Next up for (theoretically) for the Grizzlies - a semifinal with Eastern Washington.
The Eagles have an impressive winning streak of 16 games and, as a result, the regular season title, but their ShotQuality record is brutal. Despite shooting threes and layups at a league-high 85% rate, their 21-7 record should look more like 12-18 based on their overall efficiency. Eastern Washington caught Montana twice early in conference play, but I'd be interested in seeing how that matchup looks late in the year. The Grizzlies shot a shade under 40% from three and can thus fight the Eagles' fire with some of their own.
Pick: Montana (+2 or better)
Champ pick: Montana +450
It's not as daunting as it would be in the wild, but we might be getting too close to the Grizzlies. Especially if we get an all-Treasure State matchup, since Montana State is pretty clearly the best team in the conference, and its ShotQuality metrics back that up. However, it's +110, while its biggest rival is +450. The Bobs beat the Grizz twice - by three and four points - so a +450 ticket in a third instalment might be its own kind of treasure if Montana can get some sweet revenge.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
