You should always build your handicap around what statistics and metrics you believe to be most important. As we head into March Madness, I'll be basing my handicaps for conference tournaments around individual teams' shot quality (SQ). Using shotquality.com's Adjusted Offensive (AdjOFF) points, Adjusted Defensive (AdjDEF) points, and "Rim & 3" (R3) rate, we'll back teams who excel at getting good shots and limiting their opponents' shot quality. While we can't predict whether the balls bounce in or out, we'll let the chips fall where they may knowing we have a basis for our search for value against the spread.
MAAC (March 7)
Early-round bet: (9)Canisius vs. (8)Mount St. Mary's
Don't look now, but Canisius is on a heater. A 5-1 finish to the regular season featured wins against some of the legit teams of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, and the only loss was a 1-point defeat at Tuesday's opponent. For the season, though, the Golden Griffins' ShotQuality metrics were better than Mount St. Mary's across the board, and they're neck-and-neck in 3-point percentage and rebound margin. The Moutaineers' pair of close wins feel a little like outlier results with a big shooting night in one game, and kenpom.com ratings suggest that Canisius should be the favorite in this third matchup on a neutral court, and they're not.
Pick: Canisius (-1 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (7)Fairfield vs. (2)Rider
I like Fairfield (-2.5) to get by Saint Peter's in its opening game, and the team may be live for an upset in the MAAC quarters. Both Fairfield's losses to Rider came down to a final shot in regulation, and six of the Broncs' last seven games have come down to the final minute, with Rider often on the losing end.
Fairfield had the better ShotQuality over the course of the season - rates that would suggest they were two games better record-wise - while Rider should have been two games worse.
Pick: Fairfield (+4 or better)
Champ pick: Quinnipiac (+400)
Rick Pitino's Iona team is the -200 favorite, and while they're the best team, the MAAC Tournament is notoriously unpredictable on the shores of Atlantic City, and we're not laying that price while "Slick Rick" ponders what high-major team he'll coach next year.
Instead, we'll take the sharp-shooting Bobcats, who lead the league in 3-pointers made, while taking the highest percentage of threes and layups in the league. They are plus-margin rebounders and lead the MAAC in AdjDEF as well.
WAC (March 7)
Early-round bet: (10) UTRGV vs. (7) Tarleton
Tarleton's metrics suggest that they should be favored, but I have it more like a 4.5-point spread. There's no significant injuries to Rio Grande Valley that I'm aware of, so a 7-point line is too many, especially considering that the Vaqueros won both meetings this season. Another close game is in the cards.
Pick: UTRGV +7
Late-round matchup to target: (4) Seattle vs. (1) Sam Houston State
Sam Houston hangs its hat on defensive metrics, but its one meeting with the Redhawks was a bit ridiculous, as Seattle made just five of 27 threes and 9/50 overall. 7-1 in the conference at the time, Seattle made nine baskets in the entire game. With a 1.03 adjOFF, the Redhawks are better than that, and if they meet the Bearkats in the semi-final, I trust Seattle's trio of upperclassmen guards to keep another low-scoring game close.
Pick: Seattle (+6 or better)
Champ pick: Southern Utah (+700)
Only Utah Valley had a better ShotQuality AdjOFF this season, only three teams had a better AdjDEF, and no one had a better 3R rate than Southern Utah this season. The Thunderbirds split their games with the top seeds and would be no more than a 3-point underdog to either in Las Vegas, yet they're +700 while the others are shorter than 2-to-1.
Big West (March 7)
Early-round bet: (6) UC-Davis vs. (3) UC-Riverside
We'll skip to the quarters for our first best bet in the Big West. In a below-average league, UC-Davis was above average this season in our three favorite ShotQuality metrics. The Aggies should have had a better record based on luck metrics, while UC-Riverside was on the lucky side. If regression hits, in a matchup of high-scoring guards, we'll ride with Elijah Pepper's 24 ppg in league play.
Pick: UC-Davis (PK or better)
Late-round matchup to target: (4) CS-Fullerton vs. (1) UC-Irvine
In a tournament full of coin-flip matchups, last year's champion Titans have the infrastructure under Dedrique Taylor, and the metrics, to knock off Hawaii in a pick'em game, and can then upend top-seeded Irvine. Taylor has Fullerton peaking at the right time again this year with a 9-1 record to close the season, and they are well-rested, having played just once since February 20.
Pick: CS-Fullerton (+1.5)
Champ pick: UC-Davis (+1000)
I have seven teams rated within three points, so backing either of the regular season co-champs doesn't make much sense. We're already backing UC-Davis into the semifinals, and are unconvinced that UC-Santa Barbara will survive Long Beach State and be there to meet them. Plus, 10-1 is a better price than theoretically parlaying three pick'em games in a row.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
