Sunday nights are important in sports betting. There are 18 of them during the NFL season when the next week's lines go up and you get your first crack at any marginal mistakes by the oddsmakers relative to the market. The Sunday night after college football's bowl matchups are announced involves a hectic turnaround, as lines are put up after games are announced throughout the afternoon.
However, there is no wilder hour in sports betting than the roughly 60 minutes after the NCAA Tournament selection show. By 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, 32 games had been lined, and many had seen a big move. On top of that, the market refreshes the national title odds after the bracket comes out and each team has a theoretical path to cutting down the nets.
National Championship odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Houston | +500 |
| Alabama | +800 |
| Kansas | +850 |
| Purdue | +900 |
| UCLA | +1300 |
| Arizona | +1500 |
| Gonzaga | +1600 |
| Texas | +1800 |
| Baylor | +2000 |
| Marquette | +2000 |
| Connecticut | +2200 |
| Creighton | +2500 |
| Duke | +2500 |
| Tennessee | +2500 |
| TCU | +3300 |
| Indiana | +4000 |
| Kentucky | +4000 |
| Saint Mary's | +4000 |
| Xavier | +4000 |
| Arkansas | +5000 |
| Kansas State | +5000 |
| Miami | +5000 |
| Virginia | +5000 |
| Texas A&M | +6000 |
| Memphis | +6600 |
| Auburn | +7500 |
| Illinois | +7500 |
| Iowa State | +7500 |
| Maryland | +8000 |
| San Diego State | +8000 |
| Iowa | +10000 |
| Michigan State | +10000 |
| Missouri | +10000 |
| Oklahoma State | +10000 |
| Providence | +10000 |
| West Virginia | +10000 |
*Teams at longer than 100-1 not listed
Despite Alabama being awarded the largely ceremonial top overall 1-seed, Houston remains the favorite - a place it held throughout most of the season.
Given the way they closed the season, schools like Texas (+1800), Duke (+2500), and Memphis (+6600) jump out as teams that enter the tournament hot while also having a reasonable path to a championship relative to previous expectations.
Regarding the route to Houston, here's how the betting market shaped the first round in the first 24 hours of individual game betting. Below is my projected spread for each game, where it opened, and where the line has moved based on first bets.
| GAME (Projected line) | OPEN | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| SE Missouri St vs. TAMU-Corpus Christi (-4.5) | TAMU-CC -4.5 | -4 |
| Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi St (-2) | MSU -2 | -1.5 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern (PK) | TXSO -1.5 | -2.5 |
| Arizona State vs. Nevada (-1.5) | ASU PK | -2.5 |
| Maryland vs. West Virginia (-0.5) | WVU PK | -2.5 |
| Furman vs. Virginia (-5) | UVA -6 | -5.5 |
| Missouri vs. Utah St (-3) | USU -1.5 | -2 |
| Howard vs. Kansas (-16.5) | KU -23 | -21.5 |
| Charleston vs. San Diego St (-5.5) | SDSU -4 | -5.5 |
| Princeton vs. Arizona (-11) | AZ -14 | -14.5 |
| Illinois vs. Arkansas (-1.5) | ARK -2 | -3 |
| Iowa vs. Auburn (-1) | AUB PK | -1 |
| Oral Roberts vs. Duke (-3.5) | DUKE -7.5 | -6.5 |
| Colgate vs. Texas (-12) | TEX -14.5 | -13.5 |
| Northwestern vs. Boise St (-1.5) | BSU -1.5 | NW -1.5 |
| Northern Kentucky vs. Houston (-17.5) | HOU -21.5 | -19.5 |
| Louisiana vs. Tennessee (-10.5) | TENN -13 | -10.5 |
| Penn St vs. Texas A&M (-2) | TAMU -2.5 | -3 |
| UNC-Asheville vs. UCLA (-16.5) | UCLA -19.5 | -18 |
| USC vs. Michigan St (-1) | MSU -2 | -2 |
| Kennesaw St vs. Xavier (-10) | XAV -11.5 | -11 |
| UC-Santa Barbara vs. Baylor (-9) | BAY -10.5 | -11.5 |
| VCU vs. Saint Mary's (-5.5) | SMC -5 | -3.5 |
| Vermont vs. Marquette (-10.5) | MARQ -11.5 | -11 |
| North Carolina St vs. Creighton (-4.5) | CRE -4.5 | -5 |
| Iona vs. Connecticut (-6) | UCONN -10 | -9 |
| Providence vs. Kentucky (-2) | UK -3.5 | -3.5 |
| Drake vs. Miami (-1.5) | MIA -4 | -2.5 |
| Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga (-11.5) | GONZ -14.5 | -16 |
| Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis (-0.5) | MEM -2.5 | -2 |
| Montana St vs. Kansas St (-8) | KSU -8.5 | -8.5 |
| Kent St vs. Indiana (-3.5) | IND -4 | -4 |
More often than not, the market moved in the direction of my projection. In some cases - like Wednesday's First Four game between Texas Southern and Fairleigh Dickinson - it went through my projected line, making us wonder if it's worth playing back the other way.
Recency bias is visible throughout the oddsboard. VCU won the A10 Conference on Sunday, while the last we saw of Saint Mary's, it was getting crushed by Gonzaga. As a potential result, the Rams are seeing action in that matchup. Bettors love their 12-seeds in the tournament, so along with VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts, and Charleston are all getting some extra credit.
Oddsmakers are daring you to take the big favorites. Houston, Kansas, Texas, UCLA, Tennessee, and Gonzaga opened at inflated prices. In most cases, bettors were willing to bite the bullet and take the points in the name of value, enough to tighten the line.
We've seen only one game flip the favorite so far, likely due to power conference branding. Northwestern opened as a short underdog versus little-known Boise State, only for the Wildcats to take enough money to make them the small favorite.
At current prices for each game, you have to ask one of three questions:
- Would I still play it at the current number? (e.g. Furman +5.5)
- Do I need to bet this now before it moves? (e.g. Illinois +3)
- Am I waiting on a move in this game? (e.g. Saint Mary's -3? Memphis -1?)
Now that we've got an idea of what's going on with the betting market, it's time to look more closely at the matchups and finalize our positions before the various tipoffs throughout the week.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
