CBB tournament previews: Betting the Missouri Valley, West Coast Conferences

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The most dangerous mid-major conferences of the last decade? The Missouri Valley Conference and West Coast Conference. Of course, it helps that the WCC has perennial powerhouse Gonzaga, unable to jump ship to a power conference because of its lack of presence in football. Meanwhile, Missouri Valley programs like Loyola Chicago are seeking greener pastures. On Wednesday, the latest iterations of both conference tournaments tip off.

To help us navigate some of the lesser-known teams in college hoops, we'll use ShotQuality's metrics to assess how good teams are at getting and preventing good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts).

Missouri Valley (March 7)

Early-round bet

First round: (9) Missouri State vs. (8) Murray State (-1.5, 144)

Come tournament time, you can either shoot yourself to victory or coax your opponents into shooting themselves out of a game. Murray State boasts the second-best AdjDEF in the conference, making it even less likely that Missouri State (30% from three in league play) will put up an unusually high point total.

Schedule-makers did the Racers no favors with road games against Indiana State, Drake, and Southern Illinois, along with a visit from Belmont, in their final five games. Murray State's upperclassmen leaders should welcome this step down in weight class - the Bears' two wins in their last eight games came against Valparaiso and Illinois Chicago.

Pick: Murray State (-1.5)

Belmont (+1500)

Full disclosure: Indiana State does everything well. The Sycamores are tops in the league in ShotQuality's AdjDEF, an eyelash away from the top in AdjOFF, and owners of the best R3 rate in the country (95%). Belmont and Bradley shoot from long range a bit better by percentage, but ISU made 24 more threes than anyone else while also leading the Valley in rebounding margin and free-throw percentage.

Instead, we're making a play on some uncertainty in the conference's reliable second tier. Belmont lost leading scorer Ja'Kobi Gillespie for eight games midseason and went 3-5, including two losses to ISU. Upon the sophomore guard's return, the Bruins closed the regular season 7-2. They're the 5-seed, but they could easily be No. 2 or 3 and avoid the Sycamores in the final. Taking Belmont +6 in the semifinal is the safer play, but at full strength, the Bruins could get hot from deep and knock off Robbie Avila and Co., halting their March Madness Cinderella candidacy before it starts.

West Coast Conference (March 7)

Early-round bet

First round: (9) Pacific vs. (8) Pepperdine (-10, 150.5)

If such a thing exists, a better matchup for Pacific would have been Portland or Loyola Marymount. The Tigers don't have a double-digit scorer, went winless in the WCC, and have already gotten head coach Leonard Perry fired. With two previous blowout losses to Pepperdine, the season can't end fast enough in Stockton.

Pepperdine lost a three-way tiebreaker to fall into the 8-9 WCC Tournament opener. Lorenzo Romar got fired as well, but there's more talent in Malibu, and the coach is finishing the season. I expect Pepperdine will welcome the chance to cruise to victory and set up a game with San Diego, where the Waves will likely be the favorites as well. A mini-run to close out Romar's tenure might be in the offing.

Pick: Pepperdine (-10)

Gonzaga (-130)

With BYU's move to the Big 12, we can't even pretend a third team is in the hunt for the West Coast Conference title. Gonzaga only needs to dispatch San Francisco and it'll be at least -2 in a rubber match with Saint Mary's.

The Bulldogs are the 2-seed because of a two-point loss at Santa Clara in early January, but they tweaked their starting lineup immediately afterward and have lost just once since. More importantly, the Gaels (like the rest of the WCC) have no answer for Graham Ike. Saint Mary's won by two at The Kennel at the beginning of February when the Gaels slowed Ike, and Gonzaga struggled from deep. Ike then closed the season with 20-plus points in eight straight games, including a blowout in Moraga. The Zags are peaking at the right time, and in case Santa Clara topples the Gaels first, it's worth grabbing a short price on Gonzaga now.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.