The NCAA Tournament selection committee released its preview of the top 16 teams over the weekend, meaning that March Madness is starting to take shape.
Teams continue to rise and fall, shifting rankings and seeding as college basketball's postseason nears. With Selection Sunday less than three weeks away, we're making a few predictions about the top contenders and the bubble teams whose invitations to the Big Dance are still up in the air.
🔮 Michigan, Duke, Arizona are locks as No. 1 seeds
One of the most noteworthy aspects of the bracket preview is its No. 1 seeds, which the committee handed to Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Iowa State. Though the Cyclones may hang on to their top ranking despite falling to BYU after the reveal Saturday, it's pretty clear that the other three teams aren't going anywhere.
The Wolverines, Blue Devils, and Wildcats are top three in the KenPom, NET, and wins above bubble rankings with sizable gaps over the various fourth-place teams. They're the only power conference teams with two or fewer losses, and they're each projected to win all of their remaining games.
Duke and Michigan appeared evenly matched when they squared off Saturday. A couple hours prior, a shorthanded Arizona squad gave Houston its largest home loss since joining the Big 12.
It would take an extreme slide for any of those three to fall off the seed line. In fact, they all look destined to reach the Final Four barring a serious upset.
🔮 Florida will jump to a No. 2 seed
Looking beyond the 1-seeds, much is uncertain about who comes next. After dropping its conference opener in early January, Florida - then 9-5 overall - wasn't close to consideration for a No. 2 seed. Now, the Gators are 21-6, running away with the SEC, and have 11 double-digit power conference wins.
They've jumped all the way to No. 5 in KenPom, though they're slightly behind in other metrics. If Florida wins its last four regular-season games as projected, it will secure the regular-season conference title and a solid chance of claiming the SEC Tournament crown for the second year in a row.
Should the Gators win the SEC championship in Nashville, they may have the resume to earn the fourth 1-seed. But given that they received a No. 3 seed in the bracket preview, they'll need to continue their midseason surge to rise that high. Florida's 3-point shooting has been very poor for most of the year, but the team has topped 35% in three of its last four games after doing so just five times over its first 23 contests.
Scary as it is, the Gators' best ball may still be in front of them. If that's the case, no one will want to see them in their quadrant of the bracket.
🔮 San Diego State will survive the bubble; Ohio State won't
Ohio State and San Diego State had significant expectations heading into the season. The Buckeyes brought back star Bruce Thornton and two other key starters while welcoming transfer reinforcements, and the Aztecs ranked ninth nationally in minutes continuity after making the NCAA Tournament last year. As the season winds down, the squads are a combined 35-18 with three wins against the top 50 KenPom teams.
By virtue of playing in the Big Ten, Ohio State will have more chances at a signature win the rest of the way. The Buckeyes host Purdue on March 1 and would likely face at least one elite opponent should they advance in the Big Ten Tournament. But the team is falling apart. Second- and third-leading scorers Devin Royal and John Mobley Jr. missed Sunday's loss to Michigan State due to injury. Thornton registered 32 of the team's 60 points in a six-point defeat.
If the Buckeyes remain shorthanded, they're likely to finish 1-3 down the stretch without much chance of success in the conference tournament. In that case, a record around 19-14 with no signature win will keep them out of the Big Dance.
On the flip side, San Diego State has back-to-back Quad 1 opportunities against Utah State at home and at New Mexico, two teams currently in the projected field. The Aztecs nearly beat the Aggies on the road in January and already have a victory against the Lobos. If they can win both games and handle business against inferior opponents, they could be 22-8 with their much-needed signature win in tow.
San Diego State's resume will be better than Ohio State's if things go in that direction. Of course, the Aztecs could fall flat, and the Buckeyes could get a big victory instead. But banking on Brian Dutcher's group feels like a safer bet at this point.
🔮 Undefeated Miami (OH) will get an at-large bid
One of the most unusual stories in college hoops right now is Miami (Ohio). The RedHawks are a remarkable 27-0, the only undefeated team in the country. That said, they've played the 360th-hardest non-conference schedule, they compete in the 17th-best conference out of 31, and they haven't faced a power conference team all season.
Miami (Ohio) will likely win its last four regular-season games. Its toughest test is Toledo, which is also the RedHawks' only remaining home game, and its other three opponents have a combined record of 13-28 in league contests.
Beyond that, the RedHawks play in an old-fashioned conference tournament with a classic 1-vs.-8 quarterfinal. If they won, they would face the winner of the 4 vs. 5 game in the semis with Akron, the clear No. 2 team in the MAC, likely awaiting them in the final.
If Miami (Ohio) finishes the regular season undefeated and loses in the quarterfinals to a team like UMass, in the semifinals to a team like Kent State, or in the final to Akron, it would wind up with a record around 32-1. The RedHawks are currently No. 84 in KenPom, No. 48 in the NET, and No. 34 in WAB. However, a loss to any team besides Akron would drop them down significantly.
This situation resolves itself very easily if Miami (Ohio) just wins the MAC Tournament and earns an auto-bid. But if not, a one-loss mid-major missing the Big Dance over an 11-loss power conference team would cause no end of controversy. Realistically, if the RedHawks can finish the regular season undefeated, it'll be too hard to keep them out of the field.
Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.
