The NCAA Tournament is just four days old, and we've cut the list of teams vying for a national championship from 64 to 16.
Chaos and upsets were kept to a relative minimum across the opening two rounds, but a few surprises still occurred, leaving some regions to descend into pandemonium. As a result, several programs have treacherous paths to the Final Four in Indianapolis, while others may barely have to break a sweat.
With that in mind, we ranked each of the Sweet 16 teams' pathways to the final weekend of the college hoops season from easiest to toughest.
1. Michigan
Michigan had the easiest time among the remaining No. 1 seeds with its Round of 32 game, keeping Saint Louis at arm's length from start to finish. The Wolverines might not be tested for a while longer.
The Midwest Region didn't feature many upsets, but some of the winners are dealing with issues. Alabama will likely be without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway again in the Sweet 16, and Iowa State will potentially play without star Joshua Jefferson due to injury. Even if it's Tennessee awaiting Michigan in the Elite Eight, the Volunteers' weak offense isn't frightening anyone. There just doesn't seem to be a complete squad capable of challenging the Wolverines.
2. Arizona
Texas, Arkansas, Purdue, and Alabama have the worst defensive ratings of the remaining teams in the field, and the first three are in Arizona's West Region. While the Wildcats won't play a top-25 defense until the Final Four, the East Region has only top-15 defenses left.
Beyond that, Arizona has handled business through two games, though it hasn't looked as dominant as Michigan, with a poor offensive performance against Utah State.
3. Duke
Duke, the lowest-rated No. 1 seed on this list, has faced issues through two rounds. Playing TCU evenly for 25 minutes before pulling away isn't exactly cause for panic. But that outing came just two days after 16-seed Siena put a serious scare into the Blue Devils, suggesting there might be cause for concern.
Duke is still without starting guard Caleb Foster and has three legendary coaches in Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, and Dan Hurley remaining in its region. The 34-2 Blue Devils should still be favored in their group, but it won't be a cakewalk.
4. Illinois
Illinois and Houston are the clear beneficiaries of No. 1 seed Florida's surprising defeat Sunday. The Fighting Illini and Cougars will now square off in the Sweet 16, with the winner becoming the favorite to advance to the Final Four from the South Region.
These teams are very evenly matched, and despite Houston holding a rare home-court advantage, Illinois' size, skill, and depth could see it hold off a formidable Cougars squad.
5. Houston
If Houston ends up winning that powerhouse matchup against Illinois, it'll almost certainly become the favorite in the South Region, with just No. 4 Nebraska and No. 9 Iowa remaining. Following Florida's loss, the Cougars jumped up to No. 4 in adjusted NET rating, essentially ranking them as the fourth-best team.
6. UConn
The Huskies continue to win despite significant shooting struggles. UConn players not named Alex Karaban are 5-for-32 from deep in the NCAA Tournament, and that won't be enough to win a region loaded with great defenses and proven coaching.
That said, Dan Hurley and his team have been one of the most consistent in the country all season, and the squad is one of the most dangerous remaining in the field if it can get shots to fall.
7. Purdue
Make it six straight wins for the Boilermakers, rebounding from a rough stretch in which they lost four of six games. Although it appears the team is back on track, a closer look reveals that Purdue struggled with Miami's physicality and needed a late surge to hold off the Hurricanes.
A Sweet 16 matchup against Texas should be winnable, but then Purdue likely gets the sport's most physical and dominant interior in Arizona. Braden Smith and Co. would need a Herculean effort to win that matchup.
8. Nebraska
The great news for Nebraska is it won't have to play top-seeded Florida on Thursday. The bad news is that the Cornhuskers instead drew an Iowa team that handed them one of their six losses this season.
But Nebraska won its home game against the Hawkeyes this year, and both contests were extremely close. And given that these teams have already played for 85 minutes, Iowa head coach Ben McCollum won't be able to surprise the Cornhuskers with his funky scheme as he did to the Gators. If the matchup against the Hawkeyes comes down to the players on the floor, Nebraska is the more talented group.
9. Michigan State
Michigan State might have to play Duke if it beats UConn, setting up back-to-back matchups against powerhouse programs that have each made at least one Final Four appearance in the previous three NCAA Tournaments. Though Tom Izzo and Co. also have a historic March pedigree, the team hasn't reached the Final Four since 2019.
Still, UConn and Duke have both struggled offensively in recent games, and you can never count out the Spartans, considering they have the region's best point guard in Jeremy Fears.
10. St. John's
St. John's produced the definition of winning ugly in its Round of 32 victory over Kansas, and it'll have to maintain that philosophy against top-seeded Duke. The Blue Devils are short on ball-handers, and Rick Pitino's press defense has the chance to cause havoc.
But even if the Red Storm pull off the upset, they would likely draw Big East foe UConn in the Elite Eight. They might be 2-1 against the Huskies this season, but the one defeat was an ugly 72-40 beatdown.
11. Iowa State
The biggest injury question looming over the Sweet 16 is the status of Iowa State superstar Joshua Jefferson. If the do-it-all forward were definitely available, the Cyclones would move up a handful of spots and be significant favorites against Tennessee.
However, a matchup with Michigan in the next round would be a serious challenge, even with Jefferson healthy. Iowa State loves to win the rim and rebounding battles - two areas where the Wolverines excel.
12. Iowa
Congratulations on the big win, Iowa. Your next challenge is Nebraska. Should you advance, you'll then face the winner of the highest-ranked Sweet 16 matchup between Illinois and Houston.
To reach Indianapolis, the Hawkeyes will have to overcome a top-10 defense and a top-10 offense after they just beat a Florida team that ranked in the top-10 in both categories. At least their toughest game is in the rearview.
13. Arkansas
Despite getting a favorable matchup against the lowest seed to advance to the Round of 32, Arkansas struggled to pull away from No. 12 High Point in a 94-88 win. The inconsistent performance did little to address concerns about the team's already-shaky defense.
With the 275th-ranked 2-point defense, the Razorbacks will have their hands full in the Sweet 16 against Arizona's oversized interior. Though it may have the best individual scorer in Darius Acuff, Arkansas' short six-man rotation is bound to get worn down versus the Wildcats.
14. Alabama
Give Alabama credit for drowning out the noise surrounding the absence of second-leading scorer Aden Holloway and handling business against trendy upset pick Hofstra and talented Texas Tech.
However, the Crimson Tide's next opponent is national title favorite Michigan. To win the whole thing, you have to beat the best teams, but the best team being your next opponent doesn't bode well for a potential Final Four pathway.
15. Tennessee
Rick Barnes hasn't led his squad to the Final Four since 2003, and Tennessee has an extremely challenging road to buck that trend. The Volunteers' No. 14 defense also pales in comparison to Iowa State and Michigan, their likeliest pathway through the Midwest Region.
Point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been a superstar across two NCAA Tournament games, but a meeting with Cyclones guards Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure is the last thing an on-ball player wants to see when he's red-hot.
16. Texas
Texas, the lowest-seeded team left, ranks last in adjusted NET rating among the remaining schools and has the worst defense by 21 spots. The Longhorns deserve credit for making it all the way to the Sweet 16 from the First Four, but don't expect their run to last much longer.
Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.
