The transfer portal era of college football has brought in expectations for coaches to win - and to do it quickly - regardless of the circumstances.
Chalk it up to player movement, NIL payments, or Curt Cignetti turning the sport's least-successful program into an undefeated winner in two years, but patience with coaching staffs has never been thinner.
While every year matters, it's especially true for programs recovering from a dip in performance.
These six coaches all had a down 2025 campaign and enter this season with questions about whether they're the right fit to rebound.
Dabo Swinney
There are 57 million reasons why Swinney is nowhere close to a hot seat entering 2026. Clemson's massive financial commitment makes any discussion about a coaching change a nonstarter and serves as a stark reminder that Swinney was a top coach. However, Trevor Lawrence isn't walking through that door, and a 15-9 conference record in the measly ACC over the past three years is akin to a former F1 champion struggling to beat kids at a go-kart track.
Despite the mounting losses, Swinney's confidence seems unchanged. After last year's 1-2 start, he remarked:
"Hey, listen, if Clemson's tired of winning, they can send me on my way. But I'm going to go somewhere else and coach. I ain't going to the beach," Swinney said, according to The Clemson Insider. "Hell, I'm 55. I've got a long way to go. Y'all gonna have to deal with me for a while. I've got a long way to go. I'm just getting going. I'm just now good enough to be a head coach. I'm just now figuring it out."
The coaches poll continues to reward Swinney and Clemson for the glory days, but the AP Poll voters finally got wise and left the Tigers outside the top 25 of the preseason rankings for the first time since 2011. With games at LSU and Cal and a home contest versus Miami before Oct. 4, the Tigers have a real chance of starting the campaign 2-3 before the schedule challenges drop off.
Though Swinney might not have the same edge in this era of college football, he's probably strong enough to keep Clemson near the top of the ACC. That might be OK for some programs, but it falls short of expectations for a team that's won two national championships in the last decade.
Verdict: Washed (as a national championship-winning coach)
Shane Beamer
Beamer joins Swinney on this list as another highly quotable coach from South Carolina, but that's where the similarities end. While an eight-win season would have Tigers fans picketing outside the Clemson coach's house, Gamecocks fans would potentially throw a parade if Beamer put up that number.
The even years have, notably, been kind to Beamer, with 2022 and 2024 bringing a combined record of 17-9. But the last two odd years have gone the opposite way, as he's posted a dismal 9-15 total in 2023 and 2025. The good news for Beamer is that the calendar says 2026, and the Gamecocks are returning quarterback LaNorris Sellers, receiver Nyck Harbor, and elite pass-rusher Dylan Stewart.
Now the bad news: South Carolina has a difficult schedule. The team's first three SEC road trips are at Alabama, Florida, and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Georgia will visit Williams-Brice Stadium, making for a daunting home slate.
Beamer brought in coordinator Kendal Briles and line coach Randy Clements to kick the offense into high gear. The schedule will be a challenge, but I'm expecting Beamer to do enough to drag this squad to seven wins - possibly capped by a season-finale road win at Clemson - and keep his job for another year.
Verdict: Rebound (to above .500 for the season)
Matt Rhule
How much did the Mike Riley and Scott Frost eras scare Nebraska? Well, the school handed Rhule an extension last year through the 2032 season, paying him nearly $12 million annually to keep him from possibly leaving for Penn State. Yet, Rhule has managed only a 19-19 overall record since joining the Cornhuskers.
Although Rhule didn't exactly take over a juggernaut when he arrived in Lincoln three seasons ago, the returns have still been slightly underwhelming. Back-to-back 7-6 campaigns won't snatch many positive headlines, but Rhule might actually be celebrated if he can pull off the same record this year. Nebraska faces a difficult 2026 Big Ten schedule that includes national champion Indiana and CFP teams Oregon and Ohio State. The Cornhuskers will also take on No. 17 Washington and No. 22 Iowa, making it five top-25 programs on the slate. Oh, and they'll hit the road to meet an Illinois team that's won 10 games each of the last two years as well.
Rhule's issue might be Nebraska's storied football history. The Cornhuskers were once among the nation's elite, but today's college football landscape is completely different. Regardless of how strong a coach Rhule is, returning Nebraska to the top of the Big Ten would be tough for anyone.
Verdict: Washed (as the man to return Nebraska to glory)
Mike Norvell
Norvell would be nowhere near this list in a previous era of college football. A Florida State coach with a 7-17 overall record and a laughable 3-13 mark in the lowly ACC over the past two years would've been shipped out of Tallahassee on the first available mode of transportation. However, with today's skyrocketing coaching buyouts, the school would have to pay Norvell almost $50 million for him to hit the road.
Florida State seems to be just playing out the string at this point, waiting until Novell's buyout dips to a level deemed acceptable by those searching under their mattresses for loose change. The Seminoles have lost 11 straight road games and travel to Alabama, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt this season before they have a good chance to snap that streak at Boston College.
It feels like the absolute best case for Florida State this season is 7-5, a far cry from the dominant program we got used to over the years. Still, it probably doesn't matter, as the financial commitment to Norvell likely keeps him in the job through the 2027 season.
Verdict: Washed (as a coach but elite as a cheque collector)
Luke Fickell
We won't say Fickell's hire has set Wisconsin back to the 1990s, but we'll nod in agreement if you want to. The Badgers' 5-7 mark in 2001 was the program's only losing season in the 2000s prior to Fickell's hire in 2023. He's since doubled that mark in just three years as the head coach. Back-to-back losing seasons dropped his overall record to 17-21 with the Badgers, leaving many to think he was out of time in Madison. However, athletic director Chris McIntosh - who has since left to work in the league office - brought Fickell back and promised increased NIL support to help revive the team.
Fickell's biggest problem has likely been at quarterback, with Wisconsin's expected starters playing only 11 of the last 38 full games. This year, Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph will look to finally bring stability to the position.
The schedule is on Fickell's side this season. Playing a Big Ten slate without Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, or Michigan is borderline impossible, but that's the gift Wisconsin's been given for 2026. The Badgers have a tough opener at Lambeau Field against Notre Dame, but the goal there is to just not get shellacked.
While a conference title isn't coming to Wisconsin anytime soon, Fickell should avoid another losing season if Joseph manages to stay healthy for the entire comfortable schedule.
Verdict: Rebound (to a winning record)
Bill Belichick
You probably don't need to read this entire passage to know what the verdict will be. Belichick's tenure at North Carolina has been a mess both on and off the field and shows no signs of improving in 2026. Longtime Belichick friend Michael Lombardi, hired as the program's general manager, proclaimed last year that the Tar Heels were the NFL's "33rd team" based on the amount of professional experience on the staff. Instead, they enter 2026 with Lombardi on administrative leave and coming off a 15th-place showing in the 17-team ACC.
North Carolina's offense was dreadful last season, so Belichick turned to Bobby Petrino as the new coordinator to fix things. Petrino has provided no shortage of off-field headlines throughout his career, but his resume as a collegiate offensive play-caller is unimpeachable. That should make 2026 more palatable, with Belichick perhaps realizing that what worked at the NFL level doesn't necessarily translate to college, especially when your quarterback isn't Tom Brady.
Even with offensive improvement, it's still likely to be ugly off the jump for Belichick. A game in Ireland against TCU opens the slate, followed by contests at Clemson, versus Notre Dame, and at Pitt before Oct. 10. That could easily leave the Tar Heels sitting with four losses before the season is half over.
Belichick's NFL resume is without question one of the best the sport has ever seen. But nothing from his debut season suggests he's on the verge of a breakthrough at the college level.
Verdict: Washed (as a head coach at any level)
