AFC South betting preview and predictions
The AFC South sent two teams to the playoffs last year in the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. Going by the numbers, oddsmakers expect it to be the NFL's most competitive division in 2019, but one team is getting a lot of love from bettors.
The Colts are one of the most popular teams with futures bettors this summer. Indianapolis' Super Bowl odds have moved from 20-1 to 14-1, while the Colts' win total opened at nine and is up to 10 at most sportsbooks.
However, a strong argument can be made for any of the four teams winning the division, presenting bettors with value outside of the favorite.
Here are the best bets, value plays, and picks to avoid in the AFC South for 2019.
(Over prices listed in parentheses)
| Team | Win Total | AFC South Odds | Super Bowl Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 10 (+130) | 5-7 | 14-1 |
| Texans | 8.5 (+140) | 4-1 | 40-1 |
| Jaguars | 8 (+110) | 5-1 | 50-1 |
| Titans | 8 (+120) | 6-1 | 100-1 |
(Odds courtesy: Westgate LV SuperBook)
Best bet
Jaguars over 8 wins (+110)
Nothing went right for the Jaguars in 2018. Thanks to injuries, in-house bickering, and poor quarterback play, Jacksonville went 5-11 one year after the team appeared in the AFC Championship Game.
But it's a new season and the Jaguars have a new quarterback in Nick Foles. Whatever you think of Jacksonville giving Foles $88 million, he's a huge upgrade over the departed Blake Bortles. While Jacksonville will always be a physical, run-first offense under Doug Marrone, Foles brings some balance, as his presence will prevent defenses from loading the box to stop Leonard Fournette and Co.
The addition of Foles will also benefit the defense. The Jaguars finished fifth in total defense last season but allowed 20-plus points 10 times. Some of that was due to the offense turning the ball over and putting the defense in bad situations. Again, whatever you think of Foles, he's not a turnover machine like Bortles.
The Jaguars are a prime candidate to improve their win total from last season. Jacksonville has a talented roster and Marrone is an underrated coach. With one of the league's top defenses and an improved offense, the Jaguars will go over eight wins and compete for a division title.
Value play
Titans to win Super Bowl (100-1)
Betting the futures market comes down to value. For instance, most experienced gamblers bet on multiple teams to win the Super Bowl, not just one. They look for teams that offer the most value, like the Chiefs last year at 30-1.
If you want to take a long shot to win the Super Bowl this season, look no further than the Titans. Oddsmakers set Tennessee's win total at eight - the same as Jacksonville and a half-game lower than Houston. The Titans have the longest odds to win the AFC South at a respectable 6-1, just below the Texans (4-1) and Jaguars (5-1). However, when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, oddsmakers made Houston 40-1, Jacksonville 50-1, and Tennessee 100-1. The Titans offer by far the best value on the board and one of the top value plays in the NFL futures market.
It shouldn't shock many people if Tennessee does win the Lombardi Trophy coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons in a competitive division. To put it in perspective, the Titans have the same odds to win the Super Bowl as the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Bengals. Tampa Bay is 12-1 to win the NFC South, however, while Arizona and Cincinnati are both 20-1 to win their respective divisions.
And hey, you never know: The Eagles opened 70-1 to win the Super Bowl in 2017 and cashed.
Bet to avoid
Colts to win AFC South (5-7)
Again, this bet comes down to value. Even if you love the Colts this year, there's no reason to lay -140 on them to win the division. They're an Andrew Luck injury away from finishing .500 and, based on the odds, the AFC South has three more teams that can realistically win the division and make the playoffs. Why take such a short favorite?
If you're high on the Colts, there are smarter ways to invest. Consider taking the Colts at 6-1 to win the AFC, 14-1 to win the Super Bowl, or Andrew Luck at 12-1 to win MVP. The payoffs are much higher and, if the Colts do win the AFC South, those bets all have an opportunity to cash.