Baker Mayfield props: Expect career-best numbers in 2020
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Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield's 2019 season was a roller-coaster ride filled with seemingly endless highs and lows. Mayfield threw for 3,827 yards and 22 touchdowns, but he also tossed 21 interceptions - second-most in the NFL.
Will Mayfield be more consistent this season under new head coach Kevin Stefanski? We break down his 2020 player props to find out.
Passing yards
| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 3905.5 (-110) | 3905.5 (-110) |
Mayfield has yet to reach this total during his two NFL seasons, throwing for 3,725 and 3,827 yards, respectively. There is reason, though, to believe he'll see an uptick in passing yards this year. Mayfield is surrounded by one of the league's most talented skill-position groups, which features receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, along with newly signed tight end Austin Hooper.
The argument against Mayfield is Stefanski's recent history; during his lone season as a full-time offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings, quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for only 3,603 yards and the team ranked sixth in rushing offense and fourth in rushing attempts with 476. Stefanski will never adopt the Air Raid, but Mayfield should be more efficient even if his attempts go down.
Mayfield finished just under this total in his first two years, and the quarterback should actually benefit from the Browns' offense being more balanced under Stefanski. Look for Mayfield to record the first 4,000-yard passing season of his career.
Pick: Over
Passing touchdowns
| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 23.5 (-120) | 23.5 (-105) |
The over on Mayfield's passing touchdowns is one of the best prop bets of the NFL season. He threw 27 touchdown passes as a rookie before slipping a bit in 2019. However, Cleveland's red-zone play-calling was atrocious under former head coach Freddie Kitchens.
Cousins finished last season with 26 touchdown passes, but, more importantly, he ranked tied for fifth with 16 red-zone touchdowns on just 51 attempts. Stefanski likes to use play-action in the red zone, which helped Cousins finish with a 58.5 completion percentage in the red zone. Mayfield threw 15 red-zone touchdowns last year but his completion percentage was just 40 - the worst of any full-time starter - thanks largely to predictable play-calling.
This total is a little low due to Mayfield's numbers last year. However, he easily went over 23.5 in 2018, and you should expect him to do so again this season.
Pick: Over
Most regular-season passing yards
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Dak Prescott | +650 |
| Matt Ryan | +800 |
| Philip Rivers | +850 |
| Tom Brady | +950 |
| Jared Goff | +1000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1200 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +1300 |
| Drew Brees | +1300 |
| Russell Wilson | +1800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1900 |
| Baker Mayfield | +1900 |
| Carson Wentz | +1900 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +2200 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2200 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 |
Odds for players +2500 and shorter
Mayfield has some value at +1900, but you should still avoid him here. While he should improve on last year's total, he'd need to throw for roughly 1,000 more yards just to be in contention. The passing yards leader has topped 5,000 in each of the last two seasons, which is simply not realistic in a balanced Stefanksi-coached offense. With the presence of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Mayfield's ceiling is around 4,500 yards, making it unlikely he leads the league in this category.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.