Underdogs continue to roll: NFL Week 4 betting primer

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

There are some surprising 3-0 teams (like the Steelers and Vikings) and shocking 0-3 teams (like the Bengals), which means underdogs pounced through the first three weeks.

Stats back that up: Underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 15-2 against the spread (ATS) and 10-6 straight up. Further, 10 outright wins by 5.5-point or more underdogs is the most through Week 3 since 1974.

The even playing field and increased parity have led oddsmakers to assign shorter spreads than in years past. Eleven of Week 4's 16 games have a spread of four or less. Let's dive into them.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate

• The undefeated Steelers are also a perfect 3-0 ATS at the start of the Justin Fields era.
• Pittsburgh's allowed a league-low 26 total points, a large reason why this contest's total is under 40.
• Both teams' offenses operate similarly, but the Steelers' suffocating defense should have bettors feeling good about laying points.

• Malik Willis is 2-0 as the Packers' starting quarterback, but this line suggests Jordan Love will be back under center in Green Bay.
• Love practiced last week but was held out in Week 3 against the Titans and is listed as day-to-day.
• The Vikings are 3-0 ATS and straight up thanks to QB Sam Darnold's solid play and a defense allowing the second-fewest points and rushing yards per game. As a result, all three of their games have gone under the total.
• Packers running back Josh Jacobs is averaging 92.7 rushing yards per game, but his total against Minnesota is 57.5.

• The Vikings trounced the Texans in Week 3 but Houston should bounce back against an 0-3 Jaguars group that looks broken after a 37-point loss on Monday Night Football. The line moved 1.5 points in Houston's favor after Monday night.
• However, Houston hasn't covered a spread and divisional games tend to be closer.
• The Jaguars' problems start with Trevor Lawrence, who looks lost and uncomfortable in the pocket. His passing yards prop is 228.5 against Houston's sixth-best passing defense. He hasn't thrown for over 220 yards once this season.

• The two favorites to win the NFC South meet in a divisional clash.
• The Falcons have looked better since their opening-week loss to the Steelers, going 1-1 against the Eagles and Chiefs.
• After scoring a league-high 91 points in their first two games, the Saints only produced 12 in their Week 3 loss to the Eagles.

• The banged-up Rams, who are missing their top two receivers and multiple starting offensive linemen, pulled off a dramatic comeback win over the divisional rival 49ers in Week 3.
• L.A.'s defense has allowed the most total yards and fourth-most passing yards, which could bode well for a Bears offense that's struggled with rookie QB Caleb Williams.
• Williams' passing yards prop is 223.5, which he went over for the first time last week with 363 passing yards.
• Meanwhile, Matt Stafford's passing total is 213.5, which he's exceeded every game.

• This line feels short after the Buccaneers fell back to earth in a brutal home loss to the Broncos.
• But the Eagles' offense has struggled to score and they could be without star wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against Tampa Bay.
• Saquon Barkley's carried Philadelphia, leading the league in rushing yards. His rushing prop is 77.5, a mark he's flown past every game.

• Andy Dalton inserted some life into the Panthers, but they don't get to play the Raiders every week.
• The Bengals are as desperate as any team. It's rare to start 0-3 and make the postseason, but an 0-4 start would effectively end Cincinnati's playoff hopes.
• Joe Burrow returned to MVP form in the last two weeks, but the Bengals' defense can't stop a nosebleed.

• The Jets' defense should pose a major problem for Bo Nix, who had the best game of his NFL career in an upset win over the Bucs last Sunday.
• Aaron Rodgers appears to have found his groove after carving up a solid Patriots defense Thursday night.
• The Jets and Broncos each have a top-five passing defense. Rodgers' passing prop is 218.5 and Nix's is 186.5.

Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate

• This game has shootout potential given the state of the Commanders' defense and both teams' offenses. It's the slate's highest total.
• This spread moved 1.5 points in Washington's favor after Jayden Daniels' stellar showing against the Bengals on Monday.
• Daniels threw for 254 passing yards last week and 226 the week prior. His passing yards total is 216.5 versus Arizona.
• Kyler Murray faces his former coach Kliff Kingsbury, now Washington's offensive coordinator. Murray's passing yards total is 232.5.

• The 49ers are 10-point favorites over the lifeless Patriots despite being depleted with offensive injuries.
• New England brought Drake Maye in at the end of its loss versus the Jets but should have Jacoby Brissett under center against a tough defense on the road.

• This is perhaps the ugliest Week 4 matchup on paper, and the 36.5 total - the weekend's lowest - reflects that.
• The Raiders succumbed to a letdown spot in Week 3, losing to the Panthers at home after a huge road upset win in Baltimore in Week 2.
• The Browns lost to the Giants, considered one of the NFL's worst teams, at home in Week 3.

• This line suggests Chargers QB Justin Herbert will miss Week 4. Taylor Heinicke replaced Herbert when Herbert left last week's game with an ankle injury.
• The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up against the Chargers in their last six meetings but 3-3 ATS.
• L.A.'s defense has allowed the third-fewest points, but it's facing the NFL's best QB and won't have its usual offensive output without Herbert.

Sunday Night Football

• The Ravens avoided a 0-3 start by beating the Cowboys in Dallas, but Baltimore's fourth-quarter issues continue to haunt them.
• The Bills look like a Super Bowl contender and Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, but oddsmakers aren't ditching the Ravens or putting too much stock into Buffalo's 3-0 start.

Monday Night Football

• The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS, but it feels impossible to lay points with Will Levis, regardless of who's under center on the other side.
• The Titans are also 0-3 ATS and straight up. This is unquestionably the worst QB matchup of the week.

• Week 4's second Monday nighter features the second-highest points total of the week.
• The Seahawks are 3-0 but only 1-1-1 ATS.
• All three of the Lions' games have gone under the total despite their prolific offense. The Seahawks' defense has allowed the league's second-fewest yards.