There are some surprising 3-0 teams (like the Steelers and Vikings) and shocking 0-3 teams (like the Bengals), which means underdogs pounced through the first three weeks.
Stats back that up: Underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 15-2 against the spread (ATS) and 10-6 straight up. Further, 10 outright wins by 5.5-point or more underdogs is the most through Week 3 since 1974.
The even playing field and increased parity have led oddsmakers to assign shorter spreads than in years past. Eleven of Week 4's 16 games have a spread of four or less. Let's dive into them.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Steelers -1.5
56.6%
36.9%
Colts +1.5
43.4%
63.1%
The undefeated Steelers are also a perfect 3-0 ATS at the start of the Justin Fields era.
Pittsburgh's allowed a league-low 26 total points, a large reason why this contest's total is under 40.
Both teams' offenses operate similarly, but the Steelers' suffocating defense should have bettors feeling good about laying points.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Vikings +3
69%
51.1%
Packers -3
31%
48.9%
Malik Willis is 2-0 as the Packers' starting quarterback, but this line suggests Jordan Love will be back under center in Green Bay.
Love practiced last week but was held out in Week 3 against the Titans and is listed as day-to-day.
The Vikings are 3-0 ATS and straight up thanks to QB Sam Darnold's solid play and a defense allowing the second-fewest points and rushing yards per game. As a result, all three of their games have gone under the total.
Packers running back Josh Jacobs is averaging 92.7 rushing yards per game, but his total against Minnesota is 57.5.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Jaguars +6
60.1%
69.4%
Texans -6
39.9%
30.7%
The Vikings trounced the Texans in Week 3 but Houston should bounce back against an 0-3 Jaguars group that looks broken after a 37-point loss on Monday Night Football. The line moved 1.5 points in Houston's favor after Monday night.
However, Houston hasn't covered a spread and divisional games tend to be closer.
The Jaguars' problems start with Trevor Lawrence, who looks lost and uncomfortable in the pocket. His passing yards prop is 228.5 against Houston's sixth-best passing defense. He hasn't thrown for over 220 yards once this season.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Saints +2.5
46.6%
69%
Falcons -2.5
53.4%
31%
The two favorites to win the NFC South meet in a divisional clash.
The Falcons have looked better since their opening-week loss to the Steelers, going 1-1 against the Eagles and Chiefs.
After scoring a league-high 91 points in their first two games, the Saints only produced 12 in their Week 3 loss to the Eagles.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Rams +3
66.8%
46.8%
Bears -3
33.2%
53.2%
The banged-up Rams, who are missing their top two receivers and multiple starting offensive linemen, pulled off a dramatic comeback win over the divisional rival 49ers in Week 3.
L.A.'s defense has allowed the most total yards and fourth-most passing yards, which could bode well for a Bears offense that's struggled with rookie QB Caleb Williams.
Williams' passing yards prop is 223.5, which he went over for the first time last week with 363 passing yards.
Meanwhile, Matt Stafford's passing total is 213.5, which he's exceeded every game.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Eagles -2
43.1%
39%
Bucs +2
56.9%
61%
This line feels short after the Buccaneers fell back to earth in a brutal home loss to the Broncos.
But the Eagles' offense has struggled to score and they could be without star wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against Tampa Bay.
Saquon Barkley's carried Philadelphia, leading the league in rushing yards. His rushing prop is 77.5, a mark he's flown past every game.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Bengals -4.5
63.9%
72.3%
Panthers +4.5
36.1%
27.7%
Andy Dalton inserted some life into the Panthers, but they don't get to play the Raiders every week.
The Bengals are as desperate as any team. It's rare to start 0-3 and make the postseason, but an 0-4 start would effectively end Cincinnati's playoff hopes.
Joe Burrow returned to MVP form in the last two weeks, but the Bengals' defense can't stop a nosebleed.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Bronces +7.5
59.8%
61.9%
Jets -7.5
40.3%
38.1%
The Jets' defense should pose a major problem for Bo Nix, who had the best game of his NFL career in an upset win over the Bucs last Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers appears to have found his groove after carving up a solid Patriots defense Thursday night.
The Jets and Broncos each have a top-five passing defense. Rodgers' passing prop is 218.5 and Nix's is 186.5.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET slate
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Commanders +3.5
34.2%
58.9%
Cardinals -3.5
65.8%
41.1%
This game has shootout potential given the state of the Commanders' defense and both teams' offenses. It's the slate's highest total.
This spread moved 1.5 points in Washington's favor after Jayden Daniels' stellar showing against the Bengals on Monday.
Daniels threw for 254 passing yards last week and 226 the week prior. His passing yards total is 216.5 versus Arizona.
Kyler Murray faces his former coach Kliff Kingsbury, now Washington's offensive coordinator. Murray's passing yards total is 232.5.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Patriots +10.5
55.6%
38.2%
49ers -10.5
44.4%
61.9%
The 49ers are 10-point favorites over the lifeless Patriots despite being depleted with offensive injuries.
New England brought Drake Maye in at the end of its loss versus the Jets but should have Jacoby Brissett under center against a tough defense on the road.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Browns +1.5
50%
60.3%
Raiders -1.5
50%
39.7%
This is perhaps the ugliest Week 4 matchup on paper, and the 36.5 total - the weekend's lowest - reflects that.
The Raiders succumbed to a letdown spot in Week 3, losing to the Panthers at home after a huge road upset win in Baltimore in Week 2.
The Browns lost to the Giants, considered one of the NFL's worst teams, at home in Week 3.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Chiefs -7
32.6%
35.1%
Chargers +7
67.4%
64.9%
This line suggests Chargers QB Justin Herbert will miss Week 4. Taylor Heinicke replaced Herbert when Herbert left last week's game with an ankle injury.
The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up against the Chargers in their last six meetings but 3-3 ATS.
L.A.'s defense has allowed the third-fewest points, but it's facing the NFL's best QB and won't have its usual offensive output without Herbert.
Sunday Night Football
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Bills +2.5
71.1%
82.8%
Ravens -2.5
28.9%
17.2%
The Ravens avoided a 0-3 start by beating the Cowboys in Dallas, but Baltimore's fourth-quarter issues continue to haunt them.
The Bills look like a Super Bowl contender and Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, but oddsmakers aren't ditching the Ravens or putting too much stock into Buffalo's 3-0 start.
Monday Night Football
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Titans +1
60.4%
68.5%
Dolphins -1
39.6%
31.5%
The Dolphins are 0-3 ATS, but it feels impossible to lay points with Will Levis, regardless of who's under center on the other side.
The Titans are also 0-3 ATS and straight up. This is unquestionably the worst QB matchup of the week.
% OF BETS
% OF HANDLE
Seahawks +3.5
31.8%
43.5%
Lions -3.5
68.2%
56.5%
Week 4's second Monday nighter features the second-highest points total of the week.
All three of the Lions' games have gone under the total despite their prolific offense. The Seahawks' defense has allowed the league's second-fewest yards.